When the Giants Come to Town...

Down on the Farm: #48 Emmanuel DeJesus

2012-02-12T11:22:00.000-08:00

#48 Emmanuel DeJesus, LHP. BD: 1/6/1994.

DSL: 4-2, 1.74, 46.2 IP, 20 BB, 59 K.

Ordinarily, I don't include DSL guys in the top 50 prospect list. I have a separate category I call Dominican Dandies. I made the exception this year for Adalberto Mejia and Emmanuel DeJesus. I ranked Mejia a lot higher based on the fact I had heard of him before from the announcement of his signing bonus and he has more ideal size for a pitching prospect. You could make a case for DeJesus to be ranked every bit as high based on his performance in the DSL which was spectacular.

DeJesus made two initial appearances in relief and allowed 6 ER with 8 BB and 3 K's in 3.2 IP. He then moved to to rotation and absolutely dominated allowing just 3 ER over his next 43 IP with 12 BB against 56 K's. In his final start he allowed just 2 hits in 7 IP with 9 K's and 0 BB.

I don't really have a scouting report on DeJesus. He was signed out of the Dominican Player Development League which seems to be where the Giants are vetting the international prospects they are interesting in signing. I found a note that he signed for a $35 K bonus. I found a thread on a website called Baseball Fever by a guy who tracks international signings with a BoSox orientation who commented he really liked the DeJesus signing by the Giants. All I know is if he pitches like that as an 18 yo in Arizona this season, he will shoot WAAAY up next year's list.

Fantasy Focus: Pablo Sandoval vs Brett Lawrie Smackdown

2012-02-11T16:33:00.000-08:00

I find fantasy baseball hard to write about because the universe of possible topics is so huge. Right now, I'm working on my draft board for my Savvy Vets fantasy team and find myself scratching my head over a situation involving our very own Panda, Pablo Sandoval. Savvy Vets plays in a 10 team keeper league H2H, 5X5, snake draft. We get to keep 3 position players and 3 pitchers. 3B is a position I will need to fill via the draft. In looking over last year's end of season rosters, it looks like there is a good chance both Sandoval and Brett Lawrie will be in the draft. My draft strategy is to make a list of the top 20-25 players available regardless of position(although position scarcity plays factors into the ranking). I follow that list for the first 2 rounds(remember, there are already 30 hitters and 30 pitchers off the board in round 1). I then segregate my draft board by position, kind of eyeball my positional needs and position scarcity and draft by those criteria taking the BPA weighted by need and availability for the rest of the draft. I usually save the last spot or two for sleepers or breakout candidates who have flown under the radar. Those first two picks tend to be hitters and I then tend to draft heavy on pitching in rounds 3-10 after I've got my 3 position keeper plus 2 BPA hitters in the draft.

Back to Sandoval vs Lawrie. I'm thinking that both of these guys might well be in my top 20 BPA list and I'm having an endless debate with myself over which one to rank higher. We all know Sandoval's story, but I'll list last year's stat line as well as his 2012 Rotochamp projection from Fangraphs:

2011: .315/. 357/.552, 23 HR, 2 SB in 466 PA.

2012 Rotochamp: .302/.356/.513, 24 HR, 84 R, 92 RBI, 2 SB in 585 PA.

As we all know, Panda missed almost 2 months with the wrist fracture and still put up those remarkable numbers last year. His MLB average slash line is .307/.356/.501 despite pretty bad numbers in 2010, so it seems reasonable that he can keep it going or even improve. I think the power numbers in the Rotochamp projection may be low as Pablo is still likely in the upward trajectory of his career and his 2011 projects to 28 HR's over 580 PA's. Not only that, but Pablo put up 633 PA in 2009 and 616 in 2010 so the 585 PA projection seems very conservative.

Brett Lawrie has been a highly rated prospect in Milwaukee's organization for several years. He was traded to Toronto for Shaun Marcum before the 2010 season and was called up last year by Toronto. Although it is a small sample size, his stat line certainly deserves attention as did Pablo's 41 game trial in 2008 did:

2011: .293/.373/.580, 9 HR, 26 R, 25 RBI, 7 SB in 171 PA.

2012 Rotochamp: .281/.366/.519, 26 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, 25 SB in 590 PA.

Lawrie did not show that kind of power until he got to AAA Las Vegas which is a launching pad, but his body is just now maturing strengthwise and he's always been projected to have solid power. He did steal 30 bases in AA so the speed is for real.

Sandoval will start the 2012 season at age 25 while Lawrie is 22. Pablo's body habitus and conditioning will always be a concern, but he seems to be dedicated to staying in shape. Lawrie had some pics leak out onto the internet a couple of years ago showing him apparently involved in some immature activities and there was some thought that immaturity might have been in factor in Milwaukee's willingness to trade him, but he seems to have stayed out of the news since then. I would rate both players health and attitude risks to be about equal and minimal going forward. Sandoval, of course, has a longer MLB track record that has been up and down, but surprisingly much more up than down despite the bad 2010.

What it comes down to is they will give you approximately equal power numbers. Pablo will likely help you more with BA while Lawrie gives you those 25-30 steals from a position where you normally don't get very many.

Despite my Giants bias and loyalties, I have to say I'm leaning toward ranking Lawrie higher due to the SB's he gives you over Pablo's more established track record and likely higher BA.

Which of these two player do you think Savvy Vets should rank higher on draft day and would you take them in round 1 or round 2? Or would you look elsewhere in rounds 1 and 2 and try to pick up a 3B later in the draft?

Down on the Farm: #47 Cody Hall

2012-02-11T10:15:00.000-08:00

#47 Cody Hall, RHP. 6'4", 220 lbs. BD: 1/6/1988.

Short Season: 3-1, 2.63, 27.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 K's, GO/AO= 1.29, 4 Saves.

College(Southern): 4-2, 3.41, 60.2 IP, 18 BB, 62 K.

Cody Hall was drafted in round 19 out of Southern U in 2011. He started 9 games out of 15 appearances for Southern U. The Giants assigned him to closer duties with Salem-Keizer where he finished 20 games out of 23 appearances. His K rate was spectacular, but he also walked a lot of batters. His walk rate in college was much lower though.

Hall has a lot of talent, but is raw. He had never thrown a pitch until he walked on as a freshman at Baton Rouge CC. He got a scholarship to transfer to Southern U, but Southern had no pitching coach. Giants minor league instructor Lee Smith and former All-Star Dave Stewart volunteer as pitching coaches there for 1 week out of the year each. Hall has a FB that reaches the upper 90's. He also has added slider that shows promise as well as a second off speed pitch, maybe a splitter if Stewart was involved? He has a tendency to overthrow when he gets fired up on the mound.

Baggs has commented that he's heard really good things about Hall from the organization and thinks he is a real sleeper.

Scouting the Draft: Matt Smoral

2012-02-10T17:35:00.000-08:00

Matt Grabusky has his site, MLB Draft Guide back up to full speed after that awful hack attack. If you haven't visited for awhile while he was rebuilding, go back and check it out. He has a link to a mock draft on another site called Minor League Rundown that seems pretty reasonable. This one has HS LHP Matt Smoral going to the Giants at #20. Now, Smoral is somebody I could get really excited about and could easily see the Giants drafting him and he has a reasonable chance of being available at #20.

Smoral is a big guy at 6'8" who seems to have better command than most big guys and most HS kids. In his picture on Perfect Game, he bears an uncanny resemblance to Madison Bumgarner. The PG scouting report has him at 94 MPH with easy arm action and a sharp breaking ball. There is a draft video on BA where if you didn't know who it was, you'd definitely think it might be MadBum. He doesn't bring his arm quite as far back as Bumgarner on the windup but has a 3/4 arm slot that looks a lot like Bumgarner's delivery. Also like Bum, there are concerns about his low arm slot causing the breaking ball to flatten out. There are a couple of YouTube videos out there too.

mlb.com Mock Draft has him at #22 to the Rays. Matt Garrioch at minorleagueball.com has him as the #9 HS prospect which would put him somewhere around #20 in the draft. BA has him ranked #13 on their Top 100 draft prospects, so it's possible he might go before #20. If he's there, I could really see the Giants jumping all over him with visions of Madison Bumgarner dancing in their heads.

Down on the Farm: #46 Ray Black

2012-02-09T20:51:00.000-08:00

#46 Ray Black, RHP. 6'5", 225 lbs. BD:

College(Pitt): 1-1, 6.62, 18 IP, 24 BB, 30 K's, 4 Saves.

Ray Black is another big, strong fireballing college bullpen guy. He had TJ surgery coming out of HS and redshirted his freshman year. He then hurt his knee and only pitched 17 innings in 2010. He didn't pitch a lot of innings in 2011 either, probably because of walk rates that make Bryce Bandilla look like a finesse pitcher by comparison. His FB sits at 94-97 MPH with a slider in the mid 80's. The 7'th round of the draft is a great place to take a risk on a guy like this. He's probably a longshot to ever get his stuff under control, but if he ever does, the Giants have themselves a dominant bullpen arm.

Down on the Farm: #45 Bryce Bandilla

2012-02-08T20:13:00.000-08:00

#45 Bryce Bandilla, LHP. 6'4", 237 lbs. BD: 1/16/1990.

College(Arizona): 5-3, 3.66, 46.2 IP, 36 BB, 48 K's, 1 Save, BAA= .213.

Bandilla(I understand the L's are pronounced L rather than Y) is from Sacramento. He's a beast on the mound who's FB sits at 92-95 MPH and has touched 97. He also has an advanced changeup. He has a slurvy breaking ball that he throws in the bullpen but not in games. Drafted by the Giants in round 4 of the 2011 draft on the strength of his exceptional size and velocity for a LHP. He signed too late to get in any games so will make his pro debut in 2012. He'll have to get a frightful walk rate down to be successful in the pros.

Down on the Farm: #44 Edward Concepcion

2012-02-07T22:32:00.000-08:00

#44 Edward Concepcion, RHP. 6'3", 190 lbs. BD: 10/3/1988.

Low A: 1-1, 3.61, 52.1 IP, 36 BB, 62 K's, GO/AO= 1.50.

Concepcion has some of the best raw stuff in the system, but he's had a terrible time controlling it. He seemed to find a bit of a comfort zone in the bullpen for Augusta last year. He still walked a lot of batters, but the K's and a moderate GB tendency made compensated for the walks and he was a solid contributor. He throws 96 MPH heat and with a sharp breaking ball. He should move up to San Jose. His ceiling is probably a long/setup man out of the bullpen at MLB level. He's not exactly a young prospect anymore, but power bullpen guys often figure it out late.

Down on the Farm: #43 Kentrell Hill

2012-02-07T06:17:00.000-08:00

#43 Kentrell Hill, OF. 6'0", 180 lbs. BD: 10/27/1990. B-R, T-R.

Rookie AZL: .256/.316/.360

College(JC): .402/.482/.698, 11 HR, 36 SB in 203 AB.

Kentrell Hill is a true 5 tool player. His hitting stats from JC ball speak for themselves. He has also runs a 4.47 40 and has been clocked at 90+ MPH from the mound and OF. The Giants drafted him in the 10'th round of last year's draft. He signed quickly enough to get in some time in rookie ball. His line doesn't look to exciting but over his last 10 games he put up a line of .320/.393/.520. The big concern is with is quality of competition so far. I would think the Giants will take it slow and keep him in extended spring training and then on to Salem-Keizer for the 2012 season.

There is nice interview with Kentrell on the blog site Giants Cove. If you google image him you'll find some nice pics too. If you squint hard, you can see a young Willie Mays in a a baseball uniform. Gotta say, Kentrell is in the running to be named best looking Giants prospect in a baseball uniform. I don't know if the gangsta pics are of him or someone else. If it's him, I hope he was just messin' around. He seems like a nice country kid in the interview.

Down on the Farm: #42 Shawn Payne

2012-02-05T19:57:00.000-08:00

#42 Shawn Payne, OF. 6'1", 190 lbs. BD: 7/13/1989. B-R, T-R.

Short Season: .306/.431/.394, 21 SB, 6 CS, 29 BB, 32 K in 160 AB.

Payne was drafted in round 35 of the 2011 draft out of Georgia Southern which happens to be the same school RHP Chris Beck and OF Victor Roache attend, 2 players who figure to be first round picks in the 2012 draft. But, back to Shawn Payne. He put up a line of .314/.432/.504 6 3B, 6 HR, 33 SB, 3 CS, 38 BB, 13 HBP, 60 K's in 242 AB in college. He signed right away and got in a full summer of short season ball showing exceptional plate discipline and speed to steal a lot of bases. I would think he has a chance to jump over low A ball and be the starting CF for San Jose in 2012. Whether at low A or high A, if these kinds of numbers hold up, he will be moving way up next year's list. He seems to have just enough power to keep pitchers honest so he should be able to maintain his fine OBP going forward. He's a major sleeper.

Down on the Farm: #41 Stephen Harrold

2012-02-05T14:53:00.000-08:00

#41 Stephen Harrold, RHP. 6'1", 200 lbs. BD: 3/12/1989.

Low A: 4-3, 1.54, 41 IP, 17 BB, 39 K, GO/AO= 1.73, 16 Saves.

High A: 1-0, 5.48, 23 IP, 13 BB, 24 K, GO/AO= 1.00.

AFL: 3-0, 1.76, 15.1 IP, 5 BB, 15 K, GO/AO= 2.50, 1 Save.

Harrold was drafted out of UNC Wilmington in the 12'th round in 2010. He was almost immediately installed as the closer for Salem-Keizer and recorded 7 Saves in 18 appearances. He started out 2011 as the closer in Augusta and put up nice looking numbers. He struggled a bit after a callup to San Jose but sparkled in a a small sample size in the AFL, a pretty strong hitter's league. I don't have a scouting report on Harrold. Will he be the closer in San Jose or will he move up to Richmond on the strength of his AFL showing?

Down on the Farm: #40 Chris Heston

2012-02-05T09:35:00.000-08:00

#40 Chris Heston, RHP. 6'4", 185 lbs. BD: 4/10/1988.

High A: 12-4, 3.16, 151.0 IP, 40 BB, 131 K, GO/AO= 2.20.

Chris Heston was drafted out of college at East Carolina in the 12'th round in 2009. He signed right away and started out in the AZL showing a strong groundball tendency along with solid K and BB ratios. He has maintained the K and BB ratios as he progressed to low A then to high A ball, but progressively increased his GO/AO from 1.80 to 1.90 to 2.20 while dropping his ERA from 4.11 to 3.75 to 3.16. He got even more GB dominant over his last 10 starts for San Jose with a GO/AO= 2.40 while going 5-0 with an ERA of 1.78.

From his numbers, we can easily deduce that his primary pitch is a two seam sinking fastball. I don't really have any additional scouting reports. I found a couple of interviews, one on YouTube with a site call Giants Persona and one with Joe Ritzo on milb.com. Chris pretty much confirmed that his strategy is to pound the strike zone with his sinking fastball and then try for strikeouts with a breaking ball if he gets two strikes on the hitter.

GO/AO can be used as a rough substitute for GB%. I use a GO/AO>2.0 as a measure of groundball dominance. The problem comes in pitchers trying to maintain that dominance at higher levels where hitters are able to elevate pitches down in the zone and can also force pitchers to elevate their pitches. I looked up the MLB SP leaders for GO/AO and found only 4 with GO/AO>2.0: Charlie Morton, Derek Lowe, Jake Westbrook, and Jhoulys Chacin. First of all, none of them are really dominant pitchers. Secondly, I believe the reason there are so few that fall into this category is that it's so darn hard to consistently force MLB hitters to hit ground balls. So, I don't necessarily view a high GO/AO as a strong positive unless it goes with other signs of dominance. Chris Heston's K and BB numbers are good, but not necesarily dominant.

I expect Heston to put up more good numbers in AA as the EL favors his type of pitching. The big challenge will be when he hits AAA where sinkers don't sink and breaking balls don't break and power pitchers tend to do much better.

Down on the Farm: #39 Justin Fitzgerald

2012-02-04T16:11:00.000-08:00

#39 Justin Fitzgerald, RHP. 6'5", 225 lbs. BD: 3/3/1986.

AA: 9-9, 3.51, 146.1 IP, 55 BB, 111 K's.

Justin Fitzgerald is a northern California kid who played HS baseball for Cardinal Newman HS in Santa Rosa. He went to college at UC Davis where he was the closer. He was drafted by the Giants in round 11 in 2008 and has worked his way steadily up the organizational ladder. He was converted to SP in 2010 with San Jose and put up solid numbers which he replicated in Richmond last year.

He pounds the strike zone with a FB that runs 89-92 MPH and compliments it with a breaking ball and changeup. He should move up to Fresno for 2012 where he could be available as a callup should the Giants run into injury problems with their rotation. He'll never be an ace, but he would hold his own as a #4/5 innings eating starter in the majors. His ratios are good, but you'd like to see his K/BB closer to 3.

Down on the Farm: #38 Ryan Cavan

2012-02-04T08:05:00.000-08:00

#38 Ryan Cavan, 2B. 5'10", 180 lbs. BD: 6/28/1987. B-S, T-R.

High A: .270/.352/.435, 38 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 10 SB.

Ryan Cavan was drafted in the 16'th round in 2009. He has put up similar numbers at each of 3 professional levels since then hitting for a decent average with good plate discipline and some power. He finished off 2011 with a flourish hitting .341 over his last 10 games. He's an older prospect who will turn 25 yo mid-season so he's going to have to prove himself at each stop. The big test in AA should come this season.

Down on the Farm: #37 Chuckie Jones

2012-02-03T06:18:00.000-08:00

#37 Charles "Chuckie" Jones, OF. 6'3", 235 lbs. BD: 7/28/1992. B-R, T-R.

Short Season: .218/.322/.315

Chuckie Jones was drafted out of HS in the 7'th round of the 2010 draft. He signed right away and put up good numbers in rookie ball: .279/.360/.461. Naturally, there was a lot of anticipation from Giants prospect watchers going into the 2011 season and he even made some top 10 and 20 Giants prospect lists. He got a late start on the season due to oblique injuries suffered in spring training and was then in and out of the lineup with more injuries. He never really got untracked and put up disappointing numbers. He continued to show good walk rates as well as frightful K rates. Staying healthy will be his first challenge in 2012. If he can do that out of the gate, I would expect to see him in Augusta where he will still be relatively young for the level. He then needs to start making some contact to give himself a chance to put up some numbers. Chuckie is an excellent athlete who still has a high ceiling, and he is young enough that last year should not be a serious setback if he stays healthy and works hard on improving his game.

Down on the Farm: #36 Jacob Dunnington

2012-02-02T06:16:00.000-08:00

#36 Jacob Dunnington, RHP. 6'2", 160 lbs. BD: 2/2/1991.

Low A: 3-3, 3.77, 43 IP, 32 BB, 53 K.

High A: 2-1, 2.82, 22.1 IP, 10 BB, 31 K.

Jacob Dunnington was picked up by the Giants as an undrafted FA out of HS in 2009. I don't have a complete scouting report on him but I think I remember he throws in the low 90's. From his numbers, he is an extreme flyball pitcher like many Giants pitchers and prospects. He had a successful pro debut in 2010 with the AZL Giants where he posted 45 K's in 28.2 IP, with a 0.63 ERA. He followed that up with more success at two levels in 2011 with K/9's continuing to exceed 9. He did walk a lot of batters in Augusta, but actually improved his numbers after a promotion to the Cal League. In a recent interview, Giants Farm Director Fred Stanley suggested the Giants may be thinking of sending Dunnington back to SJ, but as a starter.

I may have ranked some of these guys too low, but how great is it that the Giants have prospects like Bochy, Duvall and Dunnington to discuss in the mid-30 range?

Down on the Farm: #35 Adam Duvall

2012-01-31T23:16:00.000-08:00

#35 Adam Duvall, 3B. 6'1", 205 lbs. BD: 9/4/1988. B-R, T-R.

Low A: .285/.385/.527 with 22 HR's.

Adam Duvall was drafted in the 11'th round in 2010 out of Louisville, so he was a college teammate of Chris Dominguez while there. He signed right away and put up a .688 OPS for Salem-Keizer that summer where he played both 2B and 3B. The Giants moved him to 3B exclusively in Augusta for the 2011 season. Duvall may have had the best season of any Giants prospect and they had quite a few good seasons in 2011. He hit for average, with plate discipline and power. He did commit 27 errors there so has some defensive work to do. You might want to look up how many errors Pablo Sandoval made at 3B when he was in Augusta just for comparison.

At age 22, he was not young for low A but not impossibly old. I expect him to move up to San Jose for 2012. If he puts up similar numbers there, he will be ranked a whole lot higher in next year's list.

Down on the Farm: #34 Brett Bochy

2012-01-30T21:35:00.000-08:00

#34 Brett Bochy, RHP. 6'2", 192 lbs. BD: 8/27/1987.

Low A: 1-0, 1.38, 39 IP, 8 BB, 53 K, GO/AO= 0.66, 10 Saves.

Brett "Melonhead Jr" Bochy was one of the better college closers in the country at University of Kansas going into the 2010 season. He lost that season to Tommy John surgery and was then drafted by the Giants in round 20. He showed up in Augusta in 2011 and put up spectacular K and BB ratios. BA's draft scouting report on him has him with a 91-93 MPH FB/slider combo. I'm thinking he may have picked up velocity post TJ although I have not heard that. At age 24, I would think young Mr. Bochy is on the reliever fast track. He should start 2012 in San Jose. I look forward to seeing him pitch!

Down on the Farm: #33 Alex Burg

2012-01-29T21:00:00.000-08:00

#33 Alex Burg, C/3B/1B. 6'0", 190 lbs. BD: 8/9/1987. B-R, T-R.

High A: .298/.369/.550, 14 HR in 262 AB.

ABL(Australian Baseball League): .277/.374/.546, 10 HR in 130 AB.

Alex Burg is my sleeper of sleepers although a few other prospect oriented sites have started to notice his numbers. He didn't get assigned to San Jose until after Hector Sanchez' promotion, but what he lacked in quantity of experience there, he sure made up for in quality hitting for average, with patience and power. He also played multiple positions including catcher. Now I ask, how valuable is it for your backup catcher to be able to play a couple other positions plus hit like that? Burg then headed off to Australia to play winter ball there and put up almost identical numbers. I don't know what the relative strength of competition is there, but the quality of international baseball has improved dramatically in recent years. The league features professional players from Korea, China and Japan.

He was drafted in the 24'th round in 2009 out of Washington State. where he hit .346/.466/.631 his senior season. His MLB debut was delayed until 2010 due to a knee injury requiring arthroscopic surgery suffered toward the end of his college career. He appeared in 3 levels in 2010 hitting a combined .245/.331/.443 so his Iso's were not much different than his 2011 numbers.

He's built like a mini-me of Tommy Joseph. In fact, I though he WAS Tommy Joseph until I checked his number in the program at the Cal League game where I saw him play. He's got a short, compact swing that generates good power. He strikes out a lot, but also draws a good share of walks. Patient hitters are going to strike out more because, well, you can't have strike 3 until you first get to strike 2! He does seem to be able to drive pitches he swings at.

He has some Asian facial features, his middle name is Musashi and His mother's name is Izumi, so I would deduce that he is Japanese-American. I would think he will get a chance to show what he can do with AA pitching in 2012. If he does well there, hey, I think he have a long career as at least a utility IF/C at the MLB level.

Hot Tip: Sabes Comments; Cafardo on the Offseason

2012-01-29T10:41:00.000-08:00

There's a link to an interview Brian Sabean did with Mychal Urban over on sfgiants.com Message Board. Sabes had a few interesting things to say:

1. He sees Theriot as taking pressure off Crawford against certain LHP's.

2. I sounds like he really, really wants Brandon Belt to be the starting 1B.

3. He talked about Huff playing LF, but you get the feeling that they don't quite know what to do with Huff.

4. Sounds like if Huff is still on the team at the start of the season, Nate is the 4'th OF

Nick Cafardo who writes a baseball column for the Boston Globe ranked the teams by the the success of their offseasons. I was pleasantly surprised to see him rank the Giants #15. He had some good things to say about the two trades for Cabrera and Pagan and about Brian Sabean. The link is on MLBTR.

In a sad and surprising development, somebody hacked the MLB Draft Guide site and destroyed all the files. I absolutely love what Matt Grabusky is doing on that site and here's a shout out to Matt to keep his chin up and keep going.

....and a shout out to Calvin n Hobbs over on MCC for a link to mlbreport.com and a great interview with Giants prospect Mike Murray. Not sure off the top of my head if he made honorable mention on my top prospect list. If not, maybe I will have to add him.

Down on the Farm: #32 Chris Marlowe

2012-01-29T10:23:00.000-08:00

#32 Chris Marlowe, RHP. 6'0", 175 lbs. BD: 10/26/1989.

College(OK State): 3-3, 5.05, 41 IP, 34 BB, 71 K's, 4 Saves.

Rookie AZL: 1-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 1 BB, 5 K's.

Christopher Marlowe is a smaller guy with a big arm and two plus-plus pitches. He just needs to be able to control them. Marlowe pitched in JC ball before transferring to Oklahoma State. He put up huge K numbers out of the bullpen there but the walks obviously hurt his ERA. BA's scouting report has him sitting at 93-95 MPH with the fastball, maxing out at 97 MPH. He has a sharp putaway mid 80's breaking ball to go with it. If he adds even an average changeup, he could probably be a starter. At worst, he can be a dominant arm out of the bullpen. As Kruk would say, he can get a wild hair up his nose, so the Giants task is to help him get the walk rate down, something they haven't been as good at as some other aspects of pitching development.

Hot Stove Update: Bayou Boys Reunited

2012-01-28T12:25:00.000-08:00

With the Giants payroll uncertainties all resolved to 2012 with the signing of Tim Lincecum, Brian Sabean turned his attention to the final phase of the offseason, AKA dumpster diving. This is where even the most ardent Sabean naysayers admit he has had his share of successes, and why not? There is almost no downside to signing a guy to a non-guaranteed contract in MLB!

The first signing was of relief pitcher Clay Hensley another former Giants prospect who was traded to San Diego for Matt Herges a long, long time ago. Hensley is now 32 yo and has had an up and down career both as a starter and reliever. His best season was probably 2010 with the Florida Marlins when his K/9 spiked up to >9. He even closed for the Marlins some that year! Bruce Bochy was his manager in San Diego. If anyone can coax another bounceback out of him, I would think it would be Bochy and Rags. He could make a nice 7'th man out of the bullpen and provide insurance for the rotation as a 6'th starter in case of emergency or an expected Zito fail. I'll give this one a thumbs up.

I have been defending and promoting Brandon Crawford all winter as the Giants best option to start at SS outside a Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins which was never going to happen. As a result, I have developed this protective paternal instinct around Crawford and regard with suspicion anything that might threaten his big opportunity. I guess that's why I'm not quite as enthusiastic over the signing of Ryan Theriot(The Riot to Bip Roberts). I probably should not fret about it because at this point in his career, Theriot is almost certainly not a starting SS as his offensive and defensive numbers have been in steady decline for several years now. He has maintained the ability to hit LHP's pretty well and the Giants projected lineup leans to the left with some switch-hitters who probably hit better LH, so the Giants may be thinking of him as a RH bat off the bench or a RH platoon partner with Crawford. He also does give them a bit of a safety net in case Crawford's offensive numbers crater, but Theriot would probably remind Giants fans more of Miguel Tejada or OCab on defense than, say, Omar Vizquel. In fact, Theriot's Bayou Buddy, Mike Fontenot, had much better defensive numbers at SS last year than The Riot Man! Problem is, Fonty would not make a platoon with Crawford because they both hit LH. Theriot also gives the Giants another option at 2B if Freddy Sanchez' shoulder blows up in Spring Training.

Theriot's signing also opens up almost unlimited opportunity for fun with names and relationships. There's The Riot, of course, made all the more funny by Bip Roberts' local presence. Theriot and Fontenot sound like they should go together in some kind of foot stomping country song: "Theriot and Fontenot, the place is buzzin'. Kinfolk come to see Yvonne by the dozen." There's Bayou Brothers, Bayou Boys. The Riot and The Hobbit. The possibilities are already running wild!

Rumors are also out there that the Giants and Xavier Nady have a mutual interest. Nady would be the RH bat off the bench/dumpster dive I have been talking about for awhile. Nady and Bochy also have a connection from San Diego days so it seems like a strong possibility. It's been awhile since Nady as an offensive force of any kind, let alone adequate defensively, but he was a serious hitter in his day. As we've seen, you never want to say never in this game.

These moves create competition for several roster spots putting pressure to perform on several young players. It puts pressure on Crawford to not crater on offense at SS. It puts pressure on Emmanuel Burriss to up his game a notch or two just to hold a roster spot. A Nady signing might jeopardize Brett Pill's chances of making the roster out of spring training and probably would make it more likely that Brandon Belt starts the season in Fresno.

Should be an interesting Spring Training!

Down on the Farm: #31 Austin Fleet

2012-01-28T08:11:00.000-08:00

#31 Austin Fleet, RHP. 6'2", 200 lbs. BD: 4/17/1987.

Low A: 8-5, 4.32, 66.2 IP, 24 BB, 48 K.

AA: 0-0, 2.77, 13 IP, 2 BB, 6 K's.

AFL: 2-1, 3.00, 18 IP, 3 BB, 17 K.

Fleet was drafted as a senior out of Coastal Carolina, a top notch college program. He was a starter for his first 3 seasons there, but became a top college closer his senior season. BA's Draft Database says he showed a 93-94 MPH FB in college with good sink. He signed quickly and the Giants immediately put him at starter in Arizona where he pitched well, but probably at too low a level to really challenge him.

He sputtered a bit in Augusta pitching in both starting and relief roles. He then put up a solid line in the AFL, which probably helped his stock a lot. One thing I noticed is that he seemed to morph from a ground ball pitcher with a GO/AO= 1.67 in 2010 to a pretty extreme flyball pitcher with a GO/AO= 0.48 in AA and 0.79 in the AFL, although those are both very small sample sizes.

I'm thinking AA is the most likely place for him to start out 2012, most likely out of the bullpen, but he could be moved back to starter any time.

Down on the Farm: #30 Jake Dunning

2012-01-26T21:37:00.000-08:00

#30 Jake Dunning, RHP. 6'4", 190 lbs. BD: 8/12/1988.

High A: 6-3, 4.74, 76 IP, 24 BB, 71 K, GO/AO= 1.47, 10 Saves.

Jake Dunning is a converted college shortstop with one of the loosest, whippiest arms I've seen. He struggled in the SJ rotation early in 2011 then flourished in the bullpen later as he recorded 6 of his 10 saves in his last 10 appearances. I saw him pitch a couple of times last year. He showed a FB that ran 93-96 MPH with a sharp breaking ball to go with it. He could develop into a strong setup man with an outside shot at becoming a MLB closer. He could also move back to starter and eventually be a #3 in MLB. He's a bit on the old side for his level, but has low mileage on his arm and is still learning how to pitch, so the age vs level thing is not as big a deal with him as with some prospects. I would expect him to move up to Richmond in 2012.

Down on the Farm: #29 Conor Gillaspie

2012-01-26T07:18:00.000-08:00

#29 Conor Gillaspie, 3B. 6'1", 195 lbs. BD: 7/18/1987. B-L, T-R.

AAA: .297/.389/.453, 22 2B, 6 3B, 11 HR, 9 SB, 9 CS

MLB: .263/.333/.421 in 19 AB.

This ranking may be too low. Gillaspie has a very good hit tool. I just see him as the classic "tweener". A guy who doesn't hit for enough power to play a corner position but is not athletic enough to play up the middle on defense. I admit that when he was drafted by the Giants after hitting over .400 in college I had visions of him turning into something like Wade Boggs. That he has yet to break .300 in the minor league makes that a fairly remote possibility at this point. He'll be doing very well if he can carve out a Bill Mueller-like career. I've read that his defense has improved a lot since I saw him in SJ in 2009. It looked very shaky back then. He was put on the MLB roster in September of 2008, the year he was drafted. Ordinarily teams have 3 option years after that but there seems to be a loophole that allows the Giants one more option this year, so we'll probably see him back in Fresno to start the season.

With Pablo Sandoval signed up for the next 3 years, it's pretty hard to envision Conor coming up and being the starting 3B any time soon. He's started to do some work at 2B to possibly help him play a utility role. It seems to me the most likely outcome is he will be part of a trade and hopefully get a chance with another team.

Down on the Farm: #28 Kendry Flores

2012-01-25T07:11:00.000-08:00

#28 Kendry Flores, RHP. 6'2", 175 lbs. BD: 11/24/1991.

Short Season: 4-3, 5.06, 48 IP, 14 BB, 47 K, GO/AO=0.90.

Flores' ERA doesn't look good here, but his K and BB ratios remained excellent. He's a classic power/flyball pitcher that the Giants have become known for developing. I don't have a scouting report on him but I have the impression from somewhere that he throws in the low-mid 90's. I've seen a few pics over on azgiants.com and he looks stockier than than his listed weight. I would think he'll move up to low A Augusta for 2012 where he will be age appropriate for the level. He's a solid prospect.

Down on the Farm: #27 Dan Otero

2012-01-24T02:44:00.000-08:00

#27 Dan Otero RHP. 6'3", 205 lbs. BD: 2/19/1985.

AA: 2-1, 1.42, 38 IP, 4 BB, 40 K's, GO/AO= 1.81.

AAA: 2-3, 3.25, 36 IP, 7 BB, 36 K, GO/AO= 1.21, 12 Saves.

There is not much to not like about Otero's stat line. I especially like his line for his last 10 appearances for Fresno: 0-1, 2.45, 11 IP, 1 BB, 7 K's, GO/AO= 1.78. I don't have a good scouting report on Otero. I'm thinking he's a low 90's FB guy with great command. His K/9=9 tells me he has some kind of put away pitch. He's basically been on the closer track since being drafted in the 21'st round out of South Florida in 2007 and moved slowly up the system. He actually reached AA in 2009 but missed most of 2010 and got sent back to Arizona and SJ when he came back. I assume there was some sort of injury setback there. So, he's an older prospect, but does not have a lot of innings on his arm. The Giants took a lesson from losing Joe Paterson to the Rule 5 draft, to a division rival no less, and put Otero on the 40 man roster to make sure it's didn't happen again. There's always a role for a guy who can come out of the bullpen, throw strikes, miss bats and put the ball on the ground even if he doesn't have eye popping velocity. He could contend for the last bullpen job out of spring training in 2012.

Down on the Farm: #26 Roger Kieschnick

2012-01-23T06:38:00.000-08:00

#26 Roger Kieschnick, OF. 6'3", 215 lbs. BD: 1/21/1987. B-L, T-R.

AA: .255/.307/.429, 22 2B, 5 3B, 16 HR, 13 SB.

Roger Kieschnick is one of those players who has had a terrible time of it since being promoted to AA Eastern League. After putting up an .876 OPS for San Jose in 2009, he struggled in Richmond in 2010 and missed the second half of the season with back problems. He came back in 2011 and hit quite well for the first half with power. His offense collapsed in the second half casting a dark cloud over his future. At age 25, I think it's probably time to say he's paid enough dues in the EL and give him a chance to break out in Fresno. You hate to give up on a player with his combination of power potential and athleticism but time is running out.

Fantasy Focus: 2012 All Breakout Team

2012-01-22T21:41:00.000-08:00

Everybody who plays fantasy baseball is interested in "breakout" candidates, players who elevate their games to a higher level and establish themselves as baseball stars. These are distinctly different than Rookie of the Year candidates as well as distinctly different than "sleepers." I will define breakout candidates as players who are no longer eligible for rookie of the year, and who are already well known enough that they are not "sleepers" which implies most people are not expecting much from them. Breakout candidates may or may not come with high expectations already.

C Matt Wieters, Orioles. Wieters was the #4 overall draft pick in 2007. He has hit OK, but not nearly as well as anticipated and has therefore been labeled a disappointment. He has, however, improved each year and with 2 full seasons under his belt may be poised for a breakout into full blown stardom. What may hold him back is the fact that he's a switch-hitter who struggles against RHP's. On the other hand, once he figures out RHP's he should put up monster numbers.

1B Eric Hosmer, Royals. The #2 overall pick in 2008. Hosmer was drafted out of HS. Last year was his MLB debut. He appeared in 128 games with a slash line of .293/.334/.465 with 19 HR and 11 SB. He has all the tools and skills to break out big time in 2012 if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.

1B Justin Smoak, Mariners. Also a first round draft choice in 2008 by the Texas Rangers. Some Giants fans would have preferred the Giants draft him over Buster Posey. He was traded to the Mariners for Cliff Lee in 2010. He's been a disappointment so far, but hit over .300 for the month of September last year.

2B Dustin Ackley, Mariners. Ackley is another highly touted prospect who has been labeled as a disappointment but may just not have had enough time to establish himself. He made his MLB debut last year and put up a line of .273/.348/.417, 16 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB in 333 AB's. You can approximately double all his counting stats to project to a full season which comes out pretty darn good for a 2B let alone a rookie 2B. It only takes a small improvement over the course of a full season and you have an All-Star level performer.

SS Dee Gordon, Dodgers. Sorry to say it, but all this guy has to do is hit about .250 and he may end up with 80 SB's. He seems to play pretty good D too, though not as good as Brandon Crawford. He should be able to prop his BA up with his speed as he has kept his K rate below 15% throughout the minors and his MLB debut. As for Crawford? I would consider him more of a sleeper than a breakout candidate.

3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays. Highly rated prospect traded from the BrewCrew to Toronto in the Shawn Marcum trade. He made his MLB debut last year and went .293/.373.,580 with 9 HR and 7 SB in 171 AB. His minor league record and pedigree suggest that those number just might be sustainable which would translate to a monster full season.

3B Mike Moustakas, Royals. Yet another high first round draft pick by the Royals, Moustakas put up a decent line last year in his MLB debut, .263/.309/367, but he hit .282 in August and .353 in September. Might not hit for a lot of power right away, but he looks like he's going to be a star, possibly as soon as 2012.

3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants. I suppose you could say Pablo has already broken out, but between his ongoing conditioning program and Lasik surgery to fix his eyes, I'm thinking we ain't seen nothin' yet. I don't think a .330 BA with 40 HR's is out of the question.

OF Dexter Fowler, Rockies. Fowler seems to have hit a plateau the last 3 years, but he seemed to shift into a higher gear after the All-Star break last year with a line of .288/.380/.498. He has the tools to do even better than that.

OF Desmond Jennings, Rays. Highly touted rookie who the Rays have developed slowly, too slowly for some fans taste. He put up a line of .259/.356/.449 with 10 HR and 20 SB in 247 AB in is MLB debut last year.

OF Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays. Last year was a disaster for the star-crossed young phenom. I think the Jays will give him a fair chance to bounce back and he certainly has the tools and skills to pull off a breakout.

OF Austin Jackson, Tigers. Another toolsy guy who has been so-so in his MLB career so far. Has the tools to break out at any time.

P Steven Strasburg Nationals. Hard to think of a guy hyped as much as Strasburg as having a breakout season, but that's exactly what I expect in his first full season back from TJ surgery.

Brandon Belt would be on this list if I thought he was going to be a starter for the Giants all season, but I expect to see him start out 2012 in Fresno.

Who do you think might "break out" in 2012?

Down on the Farm: #25 Charlie Culberson

2012-01-21T20:30:00.000-08:00

#25 Charlie Culberson, 2B. 6'1", 200 lbs, BD: 4/10/1989. B-R, T-R.

AA: .259/.293/.382, 34 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 14 SB, 4 CS in 553 AB.

That is not a particularly inspiring line for Charlie, and it's disappointing coming after something of a breakout year in SJ in 2010. But, you know what? He's 6 months younger than Gary Brown, so he could repeat AA and still end up at the same age/level as Brown. Culby actually looked really good at times, but he also endured a couple of prolonged slumps. His monthly splits:

April- .290
May- .271
June- .217
July- .278
August- .231
September- .292.

He finished with a flourish hitting .348 over his last 10 games.

While I think the challenge of hitting in the Eastern League is good for Giants hitting prospects, I'm not sure it's a good idea to leave them there too long as the weight of that struggle might just wear them down and break their spirit. I would be inclined to give Culby a passing grade for the level and promote him to Fresno where I think he might put up much better numbers.

Ultimately, Brandon Crawford may hold the key to Culberson's future with the Giants. If Crawford can nail down SS this year, that would probably end up pushing Panik to 2B leaving Culberson the odd man out. If Panik is the SS of the future, though, I could see Culberson moving into the 2B role, possibly as early as 2013 after Franchez' contract is done. Culberson seems like the type of prospect who will have an adjustment period to the majors and will requre some patience, something the Giants have tended to not show their hitting prospects. Possibly he could get a toehold with a utility role and gradually expand that like Nate has done. I see his ceiling as being a .260-.270 hitter with a lot of doubles, about 15 HR's and maybe about 10 SB's, kind of a league average 2B.

Down on the Farm: #24 Joan Gregorio

2012-01-20T05:59:00.000-08:00

#24 Joan Gregorio, RHP. 6'7", 180 lbs. BD: 1/12/1992.

Rookie AZL: 3-0, 2.32, 50.1 IP, 16 BB, 43 K, GO/AO= 1.20.

Gregorio is a tall drink of water who graduated from the DSL after putting up pretty good numbers there in 2010. He improved his K rate from the DSL and maintained a good BB% for a kid that young and gangly. He reportedly throws in the low 90's with room to increase that as he fills out. He was signed in 2010 for a low 6 figure bonus. I would expect to see him pitching for Augusta in 2012. That's pretty much all I know about him.

Down on the Farm: #23 Angel Villalona

2012-01-19T06:08:00.000-08:00

#23 Angel Villalona, 1B. 6'3", 200 lbs. BD: 8/13/1990. B-R, T-R.

DNP

High A(2009): .267/.306/.397, 9 HR in 292 AB.

Angel Villalona was a hard guy to rank at best. Now, after missing the last 2 seasons due to legal problems in the Dominican Republic, I honestly had no idea where to put him. I settled on ranking him right after Fuentes and RafRod just to make it a 3 pack of high ceiling international guys. His last professional experience was in the Cal League at age 18 where he actually held his own, although he slumped toward the end of the season before finishing on the DL.

I saw him play in a couple of games that year in which he struggled at the plate. He seemed to have a decent idea of the strike zone until he got to two strikes. Once he got two strikes on him, it was all over. The pitchers didn't have to come anywhere close to the strike zone and he'd still be swinging and the pitchers seemed to know it.

Villalona has shown big time power potential at a young age. The raps on him are conditioning and strike zone judgement. He's reportedly been working out and is in better shape than in the past now. It's hard to believe he's had a chance to polish up his hitting with the lack of playing time. Assuming he gets a work visa to come to the states, I think the Giants will take it slow, probably keeping him in Extended Spring Training until June then assigning him based on where he is in his development and organizational openings.

Hot Stove Update: A Flurry of Signings

2012-01-18T04:50:00.000-08:00

Yesterday was the deadline for submission of salary proposals for unsigned arbitration eligible players. I think most Giants fans are relieved and happy that they agreed to terms with all but 2 of the arbitration eligibles. In addition, Romo's contract looks like it's all but done and there's even reason for optimism about Tim Lincecum's contract and the likelihood they will avoid an arbitration hearing in his case.

Angel Pagan was the first announcement Monday evening, 1 year, $4.85 M. This a a great deal from the Giants perspective. It's market value for approximately 1 WAR. Pagan had an uncharacteristically terrible defensive season last year, possibly caused by a nagging injury. He still put up 0.9 WAR. In the two prior years, he put up 2.9 and 5.3 WAR. If he returns to form on defense, he is likely to perform to a WAR of somewhere between 3 and 4, yet the Giants are only paying for the likely worst case scenario. The 1 year deal leaves the door open to a future of Gary Brown taking over in CF/leadoff in 2013. If Pagan puts up a 3+ WAR season, he will likely command a multi-year deal on the FA market. All the Giants need to do is offer 1 year/$12 M and they get exra draft picks.

Melky Cabrera signed a very similar contract, 1 year/$6 M. Cabrera has a career average WAR of about 1.2 per 150 games so his contract is close to that with a small bonus for putting up 4.6 WAR last year. Again, it's low risk for the Giants. if he reverts to being a 1 WAR player, they can bid him adios after the season. If 2011 proves to be a breakout and he puts up 4+ WAR again, they can make the same 1 year/$12 M offer and get even more draft picks in compensation. Of course, there is still the option of re-signing both Pagan and Cabrera as FA's next offseason.

Santiago Casilla agreed to a 1 year/$2.2 M contract with $200 K in incentives. I regard Casilla as the backup closer over Romo and Affeldt. He performed that role admirably last season. Another nice deal for the Giants here.

The biggest surprise came later yesterday with the announcement of a 3 year contract for Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval is coming off a tremendous season marred only by a hamate fracture that cost him about 6 weeks but from which he appears to be fully recovered. This was Pablo's first year of arbitration eligibility. He submitted a request for $4.25 M while the Giants countered with $3 M. His projected arbitration award was $3.2. As the Giants did 2 years ago with Timmy, they ended up settling for close to the Giants number in year 1 of a multi-year deal with raises in ensuing seasons. Pablo's total deal is reportedly 3 years/$17.15 M. The deal gives the Giants cost certainty through Pablo's arbitration years but does not buy out any FA years. If Pablo does what I think he might over the next 3 seasons, this will end up being a very favorable deal for the Giants, especially in 2014.

Lastly, Nate Schierholtz and the Giants agreed to a 1 year/$1.3 M contract in Nate's first arbitration year. While a million dollar contract doesn't buy you financial security in this day, it's a nice start and it's nice to see Nate start to get rewarded for all the years of hard work he's put into his career. Maybe he'll get a bit longer leash now that the Giants have some money invested in him too?

Sergio Romo reportedly submitted a $1.75 M salary request while the Giants countered with $1.3 M. It seems his deal should be done in short order and not go anywhere near an arbitrator's courtroom.

That brings us to Tim Lincecum and his unique situation. I don't think any pitcher in history has won 2 Cy Young awards, won 3 strikeout titles and pitched his team to a World Series title all during his pre-free agency years. We are definitely looking at uncharted territory here. Since arbitration, by its very nature, considers precedent heavily, Timmy's situation becomes very dicey for everyone involved.

The Giants offer was for $17 M, the highest arbitration offer in history by a sizeable margin over the $14.25 M offer the Yankees made to Derek Jeter in 2001. Now THAT is rarified air! Timmy countered with a request for $21.5 M, just short of Roger Clemens' record request of $22 M in 2005. Clemens' situation was different in that he was well past the usual arbitration years and accepted the Astros arbitration offer as a free agent. I think it's pretty clear Timmy's agent did not want to tweak the tiger's tail by matching or exceeding Clemens' request.

Timmy has said that he is happy going year to year with his contracts which has caused a lot of Giants fans to become anxious that he intends to become a free agent on schedule after the 2013 season. The extension of that notion, of course, is that some team out there will blow the Giant out of the water with an offer to Timmy that the Giants can't and shouldn't match. More recently, Timmy's agent floated the idea of an 8 year contract as an alternative to the year to year thing. The Giants appropriately rejected that proposal as a non-starter. The Giants did indicate that they are seeking 4 year deals for both Timmy and Matt Cain.

I believe the Giants are still very much in control of the situation here. First of all, I believe that if it goes all the way to a hearing, the arbitrator is much more likely to decide on the $17 M than on the $21.5 M. While Timmy had two sensational 8 WAR seasons in 2008 and 2009 with the accompanying Cy Young awards, he has regressed in the last 2 seasons to WAR's of 4.9 and 4.4. While I doubt that the arbitrators have even heard of WAR, it does seem to be a fairly good measure of market value. Right now, the open market price is somewhere between $4.5 and $5 M/WAR. Based on Timmy's last 2 seasons, his open market value is somewhere between $20 and $25 M per year. The Giants have every reason to expect a discount during the pre-free agency years which makes the $17 M look about right. Secondly, if the Giants are seeking a 4 year deal to extend into Timmy's free agency years, they can make an offer of about $20 M/year and force Timmy to make a choice between the likely arbitration award of $17 M or about $80 M in the 4 year offer. Different agents take different approaches and I'm sure ballplayers have some say in the matter. Scott Boras almost always advises his players to take the risk of free agency over long term financial security and it usually works out for them, although not always. Timmy's agent is not Scott Boras and I don't know what attitude Timmy's agent leans toward, but $80 M is a lot of money to walk away from.

I have to say, I'm not so sure the Giants should be seeking even a 4 year deal with Timmy. Let's look at the progression of some of Timmy's stats over the last 3 seasons:

K/9: 10.42, 9.79, 9.12.

BB/9: 2.72/3.22/3.57

FIP: 2.34/3.15/3.17.

Those are still very good numbers, but there is a definite progression in the wrong direction there. While it's not panic time or "let's trade Timmy before he collapses" time, if I'm in Brian Sabean's position, I'd like to see those numbers reverse direction or at least stabilize before making an $80 M commitment. Keeping this contract to the pre-free agency years may be in the Giants best interest as much or even more than Timmy's.

We have seen in Timmy's first arbitration experience and now with Pablo Sandoval agreements that take the Giants offer as the number for the first year and the player's request as the number for the second year. When all aspects of Timmy's situation and recent precedent are taken into account, I believe the most likely outcome of the Giants negotiations with Tim Lincecum will be a 2 year contract for $39.5 M, $17 M in 2012 and $21.5 in 2013. It gives Timmy financial security while preserving his options of testing free agency in 2014. It gives the Giants the contract they want in 2012 and cost certaintly in 2013 while limiting their risk that Timmy's performance might continue to decline or that he might get injured.

A lot of Giants fans will look at that and say, "see, the window is closing! The Giants have just 2 years to win another World Series or the opportunity will be lost forever." I don't see it that way. Even in the worst case scenario, which would be Timmy's performance falling off a cliff or injury, the Giants can still re-allocate the money they would have paid him in his free agency years. If his performance remains high, they still have the option of signing him in free agency or they can trade him for top prospects and still re-allocate the money or they can get draft pick compensation plus re-allocate the money. I'm not saying I want to see Timmy pitching for the Yankees or Mariners after 2013, but it would not represent the closing of the Giants window of opportunity for winning championships.

Down on the Farm: #22 Rafael Rodriguez

2012-01-17T20:16:00.000-08:00

#22 Rafael Rodriguez, OF. 6'5", 198 lbs. BD: 7/13/1992. B-R, T-R.

Low A: .236/.284/.297, 1 HR, 1 SB, 6 CS.

You don't like to be in the position of having to defend or make excuses for your prospects, but that's exactly what I'm going to do here with RafRod. He had a rough 2011, no way around it. On the other hand, he didn't turn 19 until mid-season. The Sally League is tough on most hitters. From Fred Stanley's interview with Joe Rizo on sjgiants.com, it sounds like Raffy will be back in Augusta where he will still be on the young side for the league. Way too early to give up on RafRod!

PS: He missed some time here and there during the season, so I'm guessing he battled some nagging injuries.

Down on the Farm: #21 Leonardo Fuentes

2012-01-16T21:45:00.000-08:00

#21 Leonardo Fuentes, OF. 6'4", 215 lbs. BD: 11/29/1992. B-R, T-R.

Rookie AZL: .257/.306/.425, 13 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 10 BB, 55 K.

I think us prospect watchers all have our white whales. I know I have several, but none bigger than Leonardo Fuentes. I've never seen him play. I've never even seen a real scouting report on him. All I know is he is one of the Giants mid-6 figure bonus babies that they've been signing on the international market.....and he's big....and he plays OF...and he's young. That's really all I need to know to envision an absolute monster standing in one of the corner OF's at AT&T Park some time in the mist shrouded future.

At first glance, his batting line is nothing to get excited about. Keep in mind though that he played last year at age 18, a year in which if he was from the states, he would have been drafted out of HS and possibly not signed in time to play pro ball at all! There were 14 players who hit more HR's than Fuentes in the Arizona League, but only 5 of them were age 18 or younger. He didn't just hit HR's either. 41% of his hits went for XBH's. Fuentes put up very similar numbers in the DSL in 2010. His BB% went down but his ISO power went up significantly. I don't know if it will be in 2012, but as some point I think he's going to put it all together and be a monster prospect.

Fantasy Focus: 2012 Savvy Vets Keepers

2012-01-16T06:16:00.000-08:00

I haven't posted anything about the Savvy Vets, my fantasy baseball team, or fantasy baseball in general for awhile. Savvy Vets is in a 10 team league, standard 5X5 H2H rules. We are allowed to keep 3 hitters and 3 pitchers from the previous year. The problem in choosing "Keepers" is that Savvy Vets is thin in top tier players but very deep in 2'nd tier guys. Here's the full roster:

C Brian McCann
1B Paul Konerko
2B Jemile Weeks
3B Chipper Jones
SS Alexei Ramirez
IF Michael Morse
OF Justin Upton
OF Omar Infante
OF Coco Crisp
UT David Ortiz
UT Eric Hosmer
SP CC Sabathia
SP Michael Pineda
SP Ervin Santana
SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Matt Cain
RP Craig Kimbrel
RP Mark Melancon
RP Brad Lidge
P Frank Francisco
P Bobby Parnell
BN Chris Young(OF)
BN Bartolo Colon
BN Madison Bumgarner
BN Derek Holland
BN Bud Norris
DL Jonathan Sanchez

Comments:

Closers are insanely overvalued in this league. Between the RP and P categories, it's possible to have 5 closers in your starting lineup. We have at least 3 managers who hoard closers. If you want to compete in the Saves category, you have to take reliable closers early and often. Many of them are keepers. I tried punting Saves one year and found that the numbers really work against you if you punt any one category.

Justin Upton and CC Sabathia are the 2 obvious keepers here.

I feel like I have to keep Kimbrel because of the severe shortage of closers in the draft.

I've narrowed my options for the final 2 hitters to Paul Konerko, Michael Morse, Brian McCann and Eric Hosmer. Konerko has been one of the steadiest performers in baseball over the last 5 years, but he's starting to get to an age where you expect him to start the declining years of his career. Hosmer is a young stud who could break out or he could have a sophomore slump and have his breakout a year or 2 down the road. Morse had a breakout season last year. Was it a fluke?

Choosing the last pitching keeper has the most players to choose from. Strasburg probably has the highest long term ceiling, but the Nats will probably limit his innings in 2012. Meanwhile, I've got Cain and Bumgarner as sentimental favorites with Pineda and Derek Holland also worthy of consideration. Do I take one of them over Strasburg? Do I take the risk of having to punt Saves and keep one of them over Kimbrel?

What 3 hitters and 3 pitchers would you keep if you were managing Savvy Vets?

Down on the Farm: #20 Hector Correa

2012-01-15T07:12:00.000-08:00

Looks like everybody is off celebrating the Niners' win and debating the Montero/Pineda trade. We'll just keep plugging along here with the top prospects rundown, but yeah, I'm happy for the NIners. I haven't paid much attention to football for awhile but I really like this Niner's team. It goes to show how much of a difference good coaching can have on a team, especially at the QB position. Ever wonder what Joe Montana's career would have looked like if Bill Walsh hadn't been his coach?

#20 Hector Correa, RHP. 6'3", 165 lbs. BD: 3/18/1988.

High A: 3-1, 1.93, 42 IP, 12 BB, 37 K.

AA: 4-1, 3.20, 39.1 IP, 12 BB, 32 K.

Hector Correa was acquired on the eve of the 2009 season in one of the stranger trades Brian Sabean has made in his tenure as GM. The Giants had run out of roster room for Jack Taschner at the end of Spring Training so they shipped him to the Phillies for a pretty good reserve catcher in Ronny Paulino, only to immediately flip Paulino to the Florida Marlins for Hector Correa. Given that the Giants backup catcher in 2009, and ever since, was Eli Whiteside, gotta wonder if Sabes overthought that one and should have just kept Paulino.

Correa was a highly regarded prospect in the Marlins lower minors but had missed most of 2008 with shoulder issues. He then proceeded to make the trade look even worse by missing all of 2009 too after surgery. The worm is finally starting to turn on the trade, though, as Correa came back to have a pretty good 2010 season for low A Augusta and then sparkled at two levels in 2011. Baggs did an Organizational Report on him for BA in November and reported that his fastball was in the "mid-90s" and he combined it with a "plus-plus" changeup. The changeup allows him to be effective against LH batters allowing the Giants to stretch him out to 3 and 4 inning stints in Richmond. He could still be stretched all the way out to starter, but I have to say it's more likely he'll end up as a setup man or long reliever in the majors.

The Giants protected him from the Rule 5 draft by adding him to the 40 man MLB roster. I would think he'll start the 2012 season in Fresno, but there appears to be at least one opening in the Giants bullpen which he could challenge for in Spring Training.

Down on the Farm: #19 Josh Osich

2012-01-14T08:42:00.000-08:00

#19 Josh Osich, LHP. 6'3", 225 lbs. BD: 9/3/1988.

College(Oregon State)- 6-4, 3.64, 76.2 IP, 34 BB, 79 K.

At one point around mid-season, Osich had more helium than any draft prospect out there. The Giants were thought to be scouting him heavily but there was some question whether he might get taken even earlier than where they were picking late in the first round. Osich was coming off TJ surgery and dominating the Pac 10 including a no-hitter against UCLA. Then, his season mysteriously unravelled amid rumors of recurrent arm problems. There was still some thought that he might go in the late first round depending on medical reports. In the end, he fell all the way to the 6'th round where the Giants finally grabbed him. They were reportedly still awaiting final medical reports as the draft commenced. The reports were reportedly positive.

When healthy, Osich has excellent command of a fastball that goes 93-94 MPH and can get up to 97 MPH. He also has an excellent changeup to keep hitters off balance. He also has a breaking ball, but didn't throw it until late last season as he was recovering from the TJ.

Osich is a tough guy to rank since so much depends on his health. Assuming he's healthy, some analysts think he will be fast-tracked as a reliever given his power repertoire, age and injury history. He has shown the ability to start for a major college program though and the Giants have plenty of other relief prospects. Again, if he's healthy I would expect to see him starting for San Jose next year. A front 3 of Kickham, Rosin and Osich would be quite the sight to see and would give the Giants a nice 3-pack of high ceiling breakout SP candidates.

Down on the Farm: #18 Seth Rosin

2012-01-13T06:31:00.000-08:00

#18 Seth Rosin, RHP. 6'5", 235 lbs. BD: 11/2/1988.

Low A: 2-3, 3.34, 89 IP, 30 BB, 93 K's.

AFL: 0-0, 2.13, 12.2 IP, 4 BB 9 K's.

There is still a lot of head scratching going on in the baseball stats oriented community about how the Giants can have a bunch of flyball pitchers and still consistently be one of the best teams in baseball at not giving up HR's. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs noticed that the trend seems to date back to Dave Righetti becoming the pitching coach. He even interviewed Rags who seemed to be baffled by the whole thing himself. Someone asked Matt Cain about it and Cainer professed to be unaware that any such stat existed! The most popular theory out there seems to be that the ballpark helps the Giants pitchers, even though it is only slightly favoring to pitchers and the phenomenon extends to road games based on split stats. More recently, Cameron has invoked "something in the air" in San Francisco and "whatever Rags is putting in the Kool Aid."

My own theory, based on years of watching Giants games on TV, each one accompanied by a Mike Krukow tutorial on the art and science of pitching, and the Giants stated philosophy for scouting pitchers, is that it boils down to two things: Fastball command and not giving in to hitters. I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that if you analyzed PitchFx data, you'd find that an inordinately high percentage of HR's are given up on "mistake" pitches, breaking balls that hang and fastballs that get too close to the middle of the plate. Well thrown fastballs located properly do not leave the park. As a group, Giants pitchers command the fastball better than other teams and they don't give in and throw it down the middle of the plate in hitters counts. It's not that they are trying to walk batters or specifically prefer to walk batters than give up HR's, but they are also not afraid of walking batters because they think they will get them out and not walk them! Hope that makes sense!

What does all this have to do with Seth Rosin? Well, Seth Rosin just might have the best fastball command of any pitcher the Giants have drafted since, well, Madison Bumgarner. I first became aware of Seth Rosin during his junior year at Univ. of Minnesota where he struck out 95 batters and walked just 12, that's right 12, in 103 IP. Particularly impressive was a late season shutout of a Cal State Fullerton team that included Gary Brown and Christian Colon. Of course, Rosin also gave up 13 dingers in those 103 IP. Shows how much I know about all this! More on that later.

John Klima over at Baseball Prospect Report was really high on Rosin before the 2010 draft. I went back and re-read his scouting reports. Rosin is a big bodied pitcher who pounds the strike zone deep into games with both a 2 seam and 4 seam fastball that enables him to keep hitters from focusing their attention on one plane. He uses the 2 seamer to get called strikes and GB's and then climbs the ladder with the 4 seamer to get his K's. He particularly abused Christian Colon in the Fullerton game with the 4 seamer. He also can keep hitters off balance with a solid changeup, but his breaking ball is no more than a "show me" pitch. When he's starting, the FB goes 92-95 MPH. He can add another 2-3 MPH as a reliever making him a definite closer candidate if that's the direction the Giants want to go with him.

After re-reading Klima's scouting report, I'm less certain that Rosin should be a starter than I was. The lack of a breaking ball may be a deal breaker for starting and it may not be worth the time and distraction it would take to develop it. One solution would be to junk the breaking ball and add a cutter which gives you glove side movement and is easier to learn and easier to control than a conventional slider or curveball. In Fred Stanley's interview on sjgiants.com, it sounded like the Giants are leaning toward having Rosin start for San Jose in 2012.

Back to HR's. It is possible that in college Rosin was too focused on preventing walks and preferred to give in to hitters rather than walk them. Even though they collectively have great fastball command, Giants pitchers have always been among the league leaders in BB's allowed. My theory is that as long as there is an open base, Giants pitchers will not move to the middle of the plate when behind on hitters. Again, they are not trying to walk them. They are not so much afraid of giving up HR's either. They just are confident enough that they don't think they have to give in to the hitters. Rosin's walk rate in Augusta went up to 30 per 89 IP, still not bad, but quite a bit higher than 12 in 103 IP. Bingo! He only gave up 3 HR's in those 89 IP compared to 13 in 103 IP his last year of college.

Whether Seth Rosin is a future starter, which I still favor, or a future closer or setup man, I'm love him as a prospect and look forward to seeing him pitch for the San Jose Giants. He's yet another big time sleeper in the Giants system.

Hot Stove Update: Ryan Vogelsong Signs Extension

2012-01-12T20:11:00.000-08:00

Ryan Vogelsong's story is the type that gets passed down from one generation to another. I just finished reciting it to my daughter at dinner tonight. I'm thinking that someday they will pass it on to their children, or maybe I will tell their children myself and someday they will tell their grandchildren. It's that kind of story. It will probably get embellished in the retellings 60 years from now, but it's such a great story now I'm not sure it's possible to embelllish it.

Ryan Vogelsong was drafted by the Giants in the 5'th round in 1998. He pitched well in the minor leagues and got a September callup in 2000. I remember watching him pitch a couple of innings. He was a big kid with long arms and legs with a lively fastball and a sharp breaking slider. Dusty was impressed and said he thought Vogelsong was going to be a workhorse pitcher for the Giants for years to come. In 2001, he was traded in a package of players to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jason Schmidt in one of Brian Sabean's better trades. No sooner had Vogelsong arrived in the Pittsburgh organization when he suffered a UCL tear and underwent Tommy John surgery. He kicked around the Pirates organization for several years with several major league looks but not much success. Finally in 2007 he went to Japan where he pitched for the next 3 seasons.

Vogelsong always had good stuff. He just couldn't always throw it for strikes. Once in Japan, he discovered that the gaijin don't get any breaks from the umps over there. He had to not only get the ball over the plate, but he had to have enough on it to not get hammered. He also learned to have some equanimity about getting squeezed by the umps. By 2010, he was ready to try for a comeback in the U.S. He signed with the Phillies and pitched for Lehigh Valley, but was released mid-season. He hooked up with the Angels and finished the season with AAA Salt Lake and pitched creditably but not good enough to make anyone think he was going to make it back to the majors any time soon.

He went to pitch winter ball in Mexico as a minor league FA. There, his catcher was long time Giants farmhand and now minor league coach, Guillermo Rodriguez. Vogelsong had an idea. He wanted to complete what he started back in 1998 and pitch for the San Francisco Giants. He asked GRod to make a call on his behalf. The Giants did not respond with an offer. The Dodgers did make him an offer. Vogelsong went back to GRod and asked him to make one last call to the Giants. HE DIDN'T WANT TO BE A DODGER! This time, the Giants responded with a contract offer and Vogelsong accepted.

He pitched well in spring training but didn't make the 25 man roster. He accepted an assignment to Fresno and pitched well there too. He got the callup when Barry Zito went down with an injury. We all know the rest of the story. Vogelsong was nothing short of sensational. There were standing ovations as he walked off the field after another great start. His wife, who had encouraged him to continue following his dream cried in the stands watching him pitch. Nobody wanted Barry Zito to come back. When he finally did, it was Jonathan Sanchez who got sent down, not Vogelsong. He got named to the All-Star team and nobody thought he didn't deserve it. He won the Willie Mac Award.

There were lots of things to notice about Ryan Vogelsong last year. I'll tell you just one that sticks in my mind. I don't think I've ever seen a player with a sense of purpose about him in the dugout like Vogelsong had last year. On days he was pitching, he would set up his corner of the dugout like it was his office. He spread out the towels carefully, lined up his water bottles, he rarely sat down. From the minute he got back to the dugout after pitching his half of the inning, he would towel off, open a water bottle, talk to his catcher, talk to rags, then look out at the action on the field. You could see him gathering himself for the next trip out to the mound. And oh yeah, nobody looks better in a baseball uniform, especially a Giants baseball uniform.

Now, after all those years of struggling, all those years of his family pulling for him when it seemed like nobody else was, after staring at the possibility that he might end up leaving the game with nothing to show for it, Vogelsong has earned financial security for himself and his family. I honestly don't care what happens to him over the next two years the contract covers. Of course, I want him to do well and for the Giants to win, but if it doesn't happen, I will never begrudge the pay he gets over that time. Nobody, and I mean nobody in baseball deserves it more.

Down on the Farm: #17 Mike Kickham

2012-01-11T23:32:00.000-08:00

#17 Mike Kickham, LHP. 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 12/12/1988.

Low A: 5-10, 4.11, 111.2 IP, 37 BB, 103 K's, GO/AO= 1.46.

Mike Kickham continued a pattern from college of posting peripheral numbers that look much better than his ERA. What's encouraging about Kickham's performance for Augusta is he got progressively stronger as the season went along. Over his last 10 starts, he went 4-5, 3.25, 55.1 IP, 13 BB, 40 K, GO/AO=2.36. He really turned it on over his last 6 starts starting August 5: 3-3, 2.23, 36.3 IP, 5 BB, 25 K.

Kickham obviously has great size for a lefthander, or any pitcher for that matter. His FB ranges from 90-94 MPH. He has 2 breaking balls and a changeup. The FB is most likely a 2 seamer as he keeps the ball on the ground and was putting up dominant GB numbers by the end of the season.

As a 22 yo college draftee, he was a bit old for low A. He'll likely move up to San Jose which is in a much more hitter friendly league so it will be a challenge. Based on his physical tools, impressive secondary stats and the improvement he showed last year, I think he will be up to the task and could be poised for a breakout season. Enough people are looking at him as a potential sleeper that he may not be a true sleeper, but yeah, he's a major sleeper with a ceiling that could eventually take him all the way to the mound in AT&T Park.

Down on the Farm: #16 Jarrett Parker

2012-01-11T05:38:00.000-08:00

#16 Jarrett Parker, OF. 6'4", 210 lbs. BD: 1/1/1989. B-L, T-L

High A: .253/.360/.397, 25 2B, 13 HR, 20 SB, 5 CS in 486 AB.

Jarrett Parker has tools, all 5 in fact. He can hit, hit for power, run, throw and catch. After a fine sophomore season in college, he was projected as a potential first round draft pick, ahead of Gary Brown, among others, by some analysts. His stock slipped after a disappointing junior season. The Giants have made it a draft strategy to use non-first round single digit draft picks on formerly highly ranked players whose stock has fallen. The grabbed Parker in the second round of the 2010 draft after taking another toolsy college OF, Brown, in round 1.

SJ was Parker's first professional experience. He didn't have a bad season, but it wasn't a great one either. He started off slowly, hitting .211 in April, then caught fire and hit .282 and .299 in May and June, but tailed off considerably after the All-Star break hitting just .239 from then on.

If Parker's performance had been at the MLB level, it would have been quite valuable mainly due to his excellent OBP. The problem comes in trying to project him into the future from high A ball. Can a guy who hits .253 in high A ball hit above .220 at higher levels? If he can't, the low BA will drag all his other numbers down with it. Was the dropoff in the second half due to fatigue or did the Cal League pitchers get a book on him? Is the K rate an acceptable byproduct of his patience at the plate or does he take too many called strikes? Does his height make it too difficult for him to control the strike zone?

I saw Parker play in 3 games last year. He didn't look impressive at the plate. The one thing that stands out in my mind is a throw he unleashed from RF that rivals anything I've seen Nate do. What a cannon!

He'll be 23 yo this season and the Giants are hinting he may be back in San Jose. That doesn't bode well. Do you send a guy like this back to San Jose and hope he dominates or do you push him to AA and risk having him be overwhelmed? I'd lean toward pushing him. Parker is a hard guy to rank. He appears to have a high ceiling, but he's behind the curve age-wise and a risk to stall out early in his pro career.

Scouting the Draft: MLB Draft Guide's First Mock Draft

2012-01-10T06:07:00.000-08:00

Matt Grabusky over at MLB Draft Guide, a site that has become my go-to site for draft information with the disappearance of Baseball Beginnings/Baseball Prospect Report, has put up his first Mock Draft for 2012. Just a few random comments:

I don't know if he was influenced by my comments on Lewis Brinson, but he has Brinson going to the Giants at #20. The Giants have occasionally taken toolsy HS players in the first round without a lot of success, or any success at all for that matter. Brinson does not particularly fill an organizational need either. On the other hand, I absolutely love what I've seen and read of this kid so far and would be very happy to see the Giants take him at #20. My comps for him would be the Uptons, Adam Jones and Chris Young. Getting a player like those guys with the #20 pick is doing pretty darn well. To me, I like Brinson about as much as Byron Buxton who is listed at #2 to the Twins, but you'd be getting Brinson for about 1/3 of the slot bonus.

Our white whale, Carlos Correa goes to the KC Royals at #5, so forget that.

Our reader who lives near Harvard-Westlake might want to go check out Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, righty-lefty pitchers who are slated to go #3 to the O's and #7 to the Pads respectively.

Jake Barrett, a hard throwing college RHP who might interest the Giants goes to the Cards at #23.

Victor Roache, the power hitting corner OF from Georgia Southern drops to the BrewCrew at #28. Roache is just so typical of a BrewCrew pick. If this happened in real life, we might have to pick someone up from the bottom of the stairs. LOL!

Travis Jankowski, who seems like a classic Giants pick, goes at #29 to the Rangers while Courtney Hawkins, a portly but athletic HS OF, goes to the Yanks at #29. Remember, the Yanks won't be able to go much above slot any more without some pretty stiff penalties, and not just monetary ones either.

Some names that didn't make the first round include Rio Ruiz, Javier Valentin-Diaz, Lucas Sims and Taylore Cherry.

Mock drafts change a lot as we get closer to the real draft, and even mock drafts on the eve of the draft seldom have more than a handful of correct picks. I love the idea of Brinson to the Giants at #20 but there are several players placed lower who I would be happy with too. I'm getting more and more confident that the Giants will get a very good player at a great value with the #20 draft pick in 2012. I'll say again that the players who should be available in the second half of the first round appear to be not that much different than what's available in the top 10 except their slot bonuses will be a fraction of what teams will have to pay to the higher picks. Good stuff!

Oh yeah, click on the link to the left and check out MLB Draft Guide!

Down on the Farm: #15 Adalberto Mejia

2012-01-09T20:05:00.000-08:00

#15 Adalberto Mejia, LHP. 6'3", 195 lbs. BD: 6/20/1993.

DSL: 5-2, 1.42, 76 IP, 8 BB, 71 K.

Ordinarily, I list players from the DSL Giants in a separate group that I call Dominican Dandies. Adalberto Mejia just feels like enough of a special case that I'm listing him in the regular top 50 and fairly high at that. Mejia is one of a growing number of Giants international prospects signed to a mid-6 figure bonus, apparently on the theory that several of those are better than one 7 figure bonus. I have to say I subscribe to that theory myself.

Gotta love the size, perfect for a pitcher. Mejia dominated the DSL like nobody I can remember. The final stat line doesn't tell the half of it as he allowed 6 of the 10 total ER and 3 of the 8 total BB's he allowed all season in the last 2 games when he might have gotten a bit fatigued. Before that, he was simply magical.

I don't know much about Mejia's stuff. I think I've read he's in the low 90's with the fastball, obviously with great command. Not sure about the secondary stuff. The Giants brought him to the states for the fall instructional league. I expect to see him pitch in Arizona rookie ball next summer but with an outside shot at Low A Augusta.

Scouting the Draft: Lewis Brinson

2012-01-09T06:32:00.000-08:00

I thought we'd take a break from running down the Giants top 50 prospects and take another peek at the 2012 draft in which the Giants hold the #20 overall pick. Since John Klima has gone on a longstanding hiatus(I hope he's not ill or something, but I wish he'd post some explanation), MLB Draft Guide linked over to the left is now my go-to site for draft information. Matt Grabusky just posted a profile of HS OF Lewis Brinson that has me even more convinced that this is a remarkably deep draft.

Brinson is a toolsy OF with tremendous size, 6'4", 180 lbs. He's got the speed and athleticism to play CF. On top of that, he knows how to play the game. In other words, he's toolsy, without the usually requisite rawness. His most common comp is Dexter Fowler. Not that Fowler has done all that much, but unfortunately for us Giants fans, I think Fowler still has a huge breakout in his future. What really caught my eye was that despite tons of room to fill out his frame, and despite all those tools and athleticism, Brinson won the Under Armour All American HR Derby!

What does this all have to do with the Giants and their 20'th pick? Probably nothing. Their experience with drafting toolsy HS OF's has been uniformly terrible and I doubt they go in that direction even if Brinson is available. But, the other big thing that got my attention is I don't see Brinson listed in most mock drafts and Grabusky has him ranked as his #12 OF. Now, Grabusky says he's definitely going to move him up and that Brinson is a likely first rounder, but in looking at the OF's ranked ahead of him now, moving him up is going to push some mighty good looking prospects down a notch. That doesn't even count what promises to be a remarkably strong SS class and a decent pitching class.

The Giants are going to get a really good player at #20 and probably another really good one in round 2! If it happens to be Brinson at #20, I would be very happy.

In a related note, SS prospect Carlos Correa reportedly unleashed a throw from the hole at the Perfect Game World Showcase that was clocked at 97 MPH!

Down on the Farm: #14 Jesus Galindo

2012-01-08T17:07:00.000-08:00

#14 Jesus Galindo, OF. 5'11", 175 lbs. BD: 8/23/1990. B-S, T-R.

Short Season: .276/.353/.364, 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 47 SB, 8 CS, 25 BB, 46 K in 239 AB.

Jesus Galindo is a guy who spent 2 seasons in the DSL drawing a lot of walks and stealing a lot of bases, but struggling to keep his BA above .220. I guess you can walk off the island after all! The Giants surprisingly had him skip the Arizona League and start his USA experience in Salem-Keizer where he again struggled with his BA, hitting .212 in June. Then, he caught fire hitting .317 in July and .287 in August while continuing to maintain good walk rates.

Not only is he extremely fast, he is a hyperaggressive basestealer with his S-K manager Tom Treblehorn comparing him to Ricky Henderson in that regard. The Giants have had several guys like this in the system before, Marcus Sanders, Emmanuel Burriss, Antoan Richardson to name 3. They have all busted for one reason or another, mostly because they get overpowered at higher levels. Still, it's nice to dream about a future leadoff batter who makes drawing walks and getting on base a priority and then drives other teams crazy with blazing speed on the basepaths. Not sure if we'll see him in Augusta or SJ next season, but Jesus Galindo has made himself a prospect to watch. Gary Brown is the CF/leadoff batter of the future, but it's never a bad thing to have a great backup plan.

Down on the Farm: #13 Clayton Blackburn

2012-01-08T10:17:00.000-08:00

#13 Clayton Blackburn, RHP. 6'3", 220 lbs. BD: 1/6/1993.

Rookie AZL: 3-1, 1.08, 33.1 IP, 3 BB, 30 K, GO/AO= 2.58.

The Giants may have come up with the value pick of the 2011 draft when they selected HS pitcher Clayton Blackburn in the 16'th round. No player, other than possibly Joe Panik, had a better professional debut. BA called him the best late round pick at or below slot and voted his debut as the 3'rd best for HS players behind Dante Bichette, Jr and Trevor Story, both position players.

Blackburn isn't a guy who is going to blow you away with 97 MPH fastballs. What he brings is advanced command of 4 pitches and an apparent advanced feel for pitching for a HS draftee. His strong groundball numbers would indicate his low 90's fastball is a two seamer with lots of sink. That he can put 3 other pitches with it and still only walk a batter every 11 innings is downright startling. In Baggs Q/A for BA he said, "The Giants really like the fact that he's so poised and around the plate with 4 pitches.." John Sickels at minorleagueball.com ranked Blackburn at #11 in the Giants system noting that he showed "excellent command" and "above average velocity." It seems like maybe he just go overlooked coming out of Oklahoma the same year as Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley.

I was able to find one video on Google which is mostly a postgame interview after he pitched a 1-0 shutout in HS, but it does show some footage. He certainly looks like the prototype of what the Giants seem to look for in RHP's. Yes, he looks a lot like Matt Cain out there. There's also a TwitVid of him crushing a golf ball with a driver. He certainly seems like he isn't going to be shy around the press either.

As a HS draftee, I would expect to see him start the season in Low A and probably stay there all year. I would think with his repertoire the Giants would develop him as a starter.

Down on the Farm: #12 Ricky Oropesa

2012-01-07T13:00:00.000-08:00

#12 Ricky Oropesa, 1B. 6'3", 225 lbs. BD: 12/15/1989. B-L, T-R.

2011 College(USC): .322/.402/.481, 7 HR, 29 BB, 46 K in 208 AB.

2010 College(USC): .353/.434/.711, 20 HR, 7 SB, 33 BB, 51 K in 235 AB.

2009 College(USC): .314/.385/.578, 13 HR, 23 BB, 46 K in 185 AB.a

2010 Cape Cod League: .222 with 7 HR's, 24 BB, 52 K's in 153 AB's.

I've said it several times before, but I'll say it again here. I work with Ricky's mom and have been a huge fan since he was a junior in HS, so I am definitely not unbiased here. Ricky comes from an athletic family. His dad stands 6'5" and played some football at UCLA. His paternal grandfather ran track in Cuba. His maternal grandfather was a boxer in the Philippines.

I don't remember exactly how I first learned of Ricky's baseball prowess. Somehow I got to talking to his mom about local HS baseball and mentioned that I had read about Isaac Galloway as a highly rated local player. She told me she knew Isaac and his family and told me about her son who played in the same HS league. I looked up Ricky's stats and was immediately impressed by his combination of BA/OBP and power. I told his mom that the scouts might be in love with Isaac's speed but I though Ricky looked like a better prospect based on his stats. She seemed to know the families of quite a few southern California prospects, Galloway, Matt Dominguez, Mike Moustakas, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Hicks. We started comparing scouting reports and other bits of information we picked up as Ricky's career progressed.

Ricky chose to accept his scholarship to USC rather than signing with the Red Sox as a 24'th round pick back in 2008. He almost immediately became the best hitter on a rather weak SC team. He had a huge breakout his sophomore campaign hitting 20 HR's. He then led the Cape Cod League in HR's although he struggled to a .222 BA and struck out at about a 30% clip. He was poised to be a late first round draft pick and it was not unthinkable that he might break Mark McGwire's USC career HR record going into his junior year.

It's easy to dismiss Ricky's dropoff in power his junior year to the BBCOR bats. There is more to the story though. There was no BBCOR bat available in Ricky's preferred size of 35" for the first several weeks of the season. In addition, USC had a new head coach who wanted Ricky to take more of a level, line drive swing than the uppercut he was used to. The result was some decent numbers, but disappointing in light of his huge junior season.

Ricky and his family knew the Giants were interested. I am told that the Giants Scouting Director(I assume John Barr, although I haven't heard his name specifically) was in attendance when Ricky took Gerrit Cole deep late in the season. Ricky was alerted by Scott Boras that he might get a call from the Giants in the second round. The Giants went with Andrew Susac when he became available in round 2, but then Ricky was still on the board in round 3 and the Giants grabbed him. The pick continued the Giants trend of using the single digit non-first round picks on formerly highly ranked players whose stock dropped for whatever reason.

Ricky has a strong throwing arm and pitched some in HS and as a freshman in college. He is not going to steal bases but neither is he a slow runner. There have been several half-hearted attempts to move him to 3B and even the OF, but he's always ended up back at 1B. I think he has to tools to be a 3B or corner OF, but we need to consider him a first baseman for now. I am so darn excited to see him start his professional career in the Giants organization. I'm hoping they start him out in San Jose where he would be part of a "murderer's row" lineup with Panik, Susac and Duvall.

Down on the Farm: #11 Chris Dominguez

2012-01-07T07:54:00.000-08:00

#11 Chris Dominguez, 3B. 6'3", 215 lbs. BD: 11/22/1986. B-R, T-R.

High A: .291/.337/.465, 10 2B, 11 HR, 8 SB in 258 AB.

AA: .244/.272/.403, 22 2B, 7 HR in 295 AB.

My lasting recollection of Chris Dominguez from the SJ Giants game I saw early last year in Lake Elsinore is not so much the 2 HR's he hit in the game, but his physical presence. Chris is a big man, but he looks even bigger on the field. I mean, he really did look like a man playing with a bunch of boys out there. Chris Dominguez is a bit of an enigma in the making. I don't think anyone in the GIants system has more raw power, including Tommy Joseph. The big question is whether Chris will ever make enough contact to harness that power.

His numbers held up very well through the first half of the season in San Jose. After his promotion, he started out like a house afire in AA going .314/.333/.647 in his first 13 games. He then went into a deep slump hitting .218 in July before rebounding to a .257 BA in August.

Chris boasts a plus-plus arm, and could probably pitch if he had to. His range at 3B is limited but he can play 2 steps farther back because of that arm. He has shown the ability to make incremental adjustments at the plate going all the way back to college, but the progress has been slow at times and at 25 yo, he isn't getting any younger. Still, power hitters often develop more slowly and Dominguez power is something that is worth being patient with. The Giants could consider his half season at AA to be a jump-start on 2012 and send him back to Richmond. With Pablo esconced at 3B in SF, there is certainly no reason to rush. Gillaspie will likely still be in Fresno, so that scenario probably makes the most sense. They could also push him to Fresno and make Gillaspie more of a utility player. In that scenario, I wouldn't be shocked if Chris had a huge breakout in the more hitter friendly PCL.

If Pablo Sandoval stays in shape and continues to grow as a player and the Giants sign him to a long term contract, there might not be a place in SF for Chris Dominguez. He might then become trade bait for a team looking for a Mark Reynolds type 3B, a guy who hits for a low BA, strikes out a ton but hits a ton of HR's. On the other hand, you never know. Pablo might get too expensive to keep or he might fall off the fitness wagon. It never hurts to have options in the system.

Down on the Farm: #10 Ehire Adrianza

2012-01-06T17:23:00.000-08:00

#10 Ehire Adrianza, SS. 6'0", 170 lbs. BD: 8/21/1989. B-S, T-R.

Low A: .231/.315/.378, 10 2B, 3 HR, 18 BB, 32 K in 143 AB.

High A: .300/.375/470, 24 2B, 3 HR, 23 BB, 46 K in 230 AB.

VWL: .234/.282/.338 in 77 AB.

Giants fans know as well as anyone just how hard it can be to find a SS who can field the position at all, let alone field it well. Ehire Adrianza is an exceptional fielder at SS automatically making him a prospect no matter what he hits. On the surface, it's easy to dismiss Adrianza as a hitter, but when you dig down a bit, there is reason for optimism.

He got a late start on 2011 due to a torn thumb ligament in his left hand that required surgery near the end of spring training. His weak numbers in Low A are most likely due to a residual from that injury. Once he got back to San Jose, Adrianza had a nice little season hitting .300 with doubles power. He's always been a patient hitter, especially for someone with limited power maintaining walk rates between 8.8% and 11.1% over his minor league career. He's always had some doubles power with 100 XBH's out of 335 minor league hits.

Although he is on the thin side, to my eye he has room to fill out his frame. I think he could well be a late bloomer for power and the fundamentals are already there. The logical next step for him would be to start 2012 in Richmond which will be a stiff test. If he keeps his head above water there, he's a legit MLB prospect.

Down on the Farm: #9 Hector Sanchez

2012-01-05T22:01:00.000-08:00

#9 Hector Sanchez, C. 5'11", 235 lbs. BD: 11/19/1989. B-S, T-R.

High A: .302/.338/.533, 11 HR in 212 AB.

AAA: .261/.315/.34 in 153 AB.

MLB: .258/.324/.323 in 31 AB.

Hector Sanchez has been a favorite of dedicated Giants prospect watchers ever since he put up a line of .286/.401/.471 as a 17 yo in the DSL in 2007. Since then, he's worked his way slowly up the ladder putting up .400+ OBP's in each of his first 3 professional seasons. His numbers tailed off a bit in Augusta in 2010 but then he broke out in San Jose to begin 2012. When Buster Posey went down with his injury, and Eli Whiteside obviously hurting the team, the Giants jumped Hector all the say to Fresno where he held his own and got a callup to the big club. I don't know about you folks, but to my eye, he turned in some mighty impressive AB's for the Giants. One in particular sticks in my mind where he worked to count to 3-2 and then banged one up the middle for a hard single. All in all, he looked like a confident game caller and a confident batter who just needs a bit more seasoning. He caught Barry Zito in Fresno and drew rave reviews from Zito himself for taking charge of the high priced veteran's games. For those who say he doesn't walk enough, I keep harking back to his 3 consecutive .400+ OBP's. Just let him get his feet on the ground. He's gonna draw walks!

Baggs has projected him to be a career backup catcher. I say that is his absolute floor. Unless he can't control his weight and eats himself out of the league, I think it's much more likely that he has a career as a starting catcher. He's more than adequate on defense and that switch-hitting bat is so valuable from that position. I think he'll start the season in Fresno. I'd like to see him and Johnny Monell in a catching tandem there. Not sure what Whiteside adds to the equation.

Down on the Farm: #8 Eric Surkamp

2012-01-05T06:33:00.000-08:00

#8 Eric Surkamp, LHP. 6'4", 190 lbs. BD: 7/16/1987.

AA: 10-4, 2.02, 142.1 IP, 44 BB, 165 K, GO/AO= 0.97.

High A: 1-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 BB, 5 K's.

MLB: 2-2, 5.74, 26.2 IP, 17 BB, 13 K's.

This is more of a proximity ranking than ceiling ranking. The Giants have several pitchers in their system who probably have higher ceilings than Eric Surkamp, but none who are closer to a MLB callup. Surkamp moved up a level to AA and dominated it. He then got rushed up to the majors when both Zito and Sanchez got hurt and the Giants needed a 5'th starter. He didn't fare as well in the show. His first couple of games were OK, but then he lost control of the strike zone and got pounded.

Surkamp's fastball was about what I expected, high 80's with an occasional 90 MPH. I have to say I was disappointed in the curveball. I was expecting something along the lines of Zito's, but Surkamp's is much tighter and flatter. I'm just not sure it's the stand alone plus pitch I had envisioned from reports. He also is reputed to have the best changeup in the Giants system, but I didn't see anything to bring back memories of Noah Lowry's MLB debut.

I think Surkamp has enough stuff that if he commands it better and mixes his pitches right, he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter in the majors. He should start the 2012 season in AAA which will give him a challenge to polish up his repertoire and hopefully have more confidence the next time he gets a chance in the show.

Down on the Farm: #7 Andrew Susac

2012-01-04T06:57:00.000-08:00

#7 Andrew Susac, C. 6'1", 200 lbs. BD: 3/22/1990.

College: .298/.429/.525, 9 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR in 141 AB.

Cape Cod League(2010): .290 with 6 2B, 5 HR, 13 BB, 25 K in 100 AB.

Andrew Susac grew up a Giants fan in the Sacramento area. He was drafted out of HS and turned down a $200 K bonus to play for Oregon State. Andrew missed part of his junior season with a hamate fracture but came back to play before the season ended. He was widely seen as a potential first rounder before the injury that probably dropped his stock. Under John Barr, the Giants have made it a strategy to use high non-first round picks on formerly highly ranked players whose stock drops for some reason. Sure enough, when Susac fell to them in round 2, they grabbed him with the #86 overall pick. He signed too late to get into any pro games but Baggs reports that he impressed in instructionals in the fall.

Susac is reportedly a solid all-around defensive catcher who can "shut down a running game." He hits for power using a high leg kick with excellent backspin. He's a puller, so could be vulnerable to good breaking stuff. John Klima was a bit worried about a drop in his hands before starting his swing. Looking at his scouting video myself, I've seen worse hand drops than that, so I don't know how much of a problem that might turn out to be. There are plenty of scouting videos out there on him if you just do a video google. There is one where he really puts a charge into one with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League. Again, there may be a slight hand drop, but it looks to me like it's more of just bringing his hands into a comfortable swinging position rather than any kind of hitch in his swing.

I would project him to be the starting catcher for San Jose in 2012 and we'll see what the Giants have here.

Down on the Farm: #6 Kyle Crick

2012-01-02T21:07:00.000-08:00

#6 Kyle Crick, RHP. 6'4", 220 lbs. BD: 11/30/1992.

Rookie AZL: 1-0, 6.43, 7 IP, 8 BB, 8 K's.

In a banner year for HS RHP's in the draft, Kyle Crick kind of got lost in the shuffle a bit. The Giants didn't lose track of him though and grabbed him in the supplemental first round. A big, strong kid, he fits perfectly into the mold of Matt Cain and Zack Wheeler, 2 HS RHP's who preceded him as first round Giants draftees. He also fits the mold of RHP's from the state of Texas.

Crick was a first baseman until after his junior year in high school. He decided he should think about pitching when he regularly hit 94 MPH on the showcase circuit. He was able to dial it up to 97 during his senior year. He already has a bit of a slider and a curveball that has a nice downward drop. He is also working on a changeup and splitter. There are a few scouting videos available on the internet. I suggest you look them up. His leg kick is reminiscent of Cains. I don't think he rocks back quite a far. He's got a quick power delivery with moderate effort and some recoil at the end. He's reportedly still learning to get everything moving toward the plate.

He appeared in 7 games starting July 20 in Rookie ball with inconsistent results in only 7 IP. He will start the 2012 campaign with instructional league under his belt. If he follows the typical path of Giants high round HS draft picks, he will play next season for Augusta in Low A ball. He did have a fairly high walk rate in HS.

Here are some things said about him that I was able to find around the internet:

Baggs in his BA scouting report: "....has every bit as much projection as Matt Cain did nearly a decade ago." "Crick is the best power arm in a system that usually knows what to do with them. He has the ceiling of a #2 starter."

John Klima: "Kyle Crick is going to go good if I know anything. Not sure how you would find something not to like in this look."

This was a very deep draft. After reading up on Crick and looking at his scouting videos, I think the Giants got a better prospect than any of the guys who were bandied about as potential first round picks, Dillon Howard, Robert Stephenson, Jose Fernandez or Joe Ross who were all drafted before the Giants turn at #29. I'm not sure how you would separate him talentwise from Matt Cain and Zack Wheeler at the same stage of their careers.

Rather than saying the Giants system must be weak if Gary Brown and Joe Panik are the top 2 prospects, I'm going to say it must be pretty strong if a talent like Kyle Crick is sitting at #6 or in BA's case, #8.

Down on the Farm: #5 Francisco Peguero

2012-01-02T06:44:00.000-08:00

#5 Francisco Peguero, OF. 5'11", 195 lbs. BD: 6/1/1988. B-R, T-R.

High A: .324/.387/.441, 2 HR, 4 SB in 68 AB.

AA: .309/.318/.446, 12 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 8 SB, 1 CS in 285 AB.

DWL: .264/.312/.345 in 87 AB.

Francisco Peguero is a perfect example of how you get a divergence of opinion between scouting oriented vs stats oriented analyists. In his BA write up, Baggs called him "the most tooled up player in the system." Peguero is the classic "tools" prospect. He has a great hit tool. He runs well enough to steal a lot of bases and cover CF. He catches the ball once he gets to it. He has a strong enough arm to gun down runners from RF. He has projectable power, although we haven't really seen it yet. So what keeps Peguero from being the top rated prospect in the Giants system? Well, there's the power that hasn't displayed itself yet, but when the stats oriented analysts look at his lines, they stop at one item, throw up their hands. and say, "he's never going to amount to anything." That one item? BB%! Peguero is a very aggressive hitter and just never walks. That's the death knell for most sabermetric oriented prospect evaluators.

Now, I'm somewhat stats oriented myself. I'm certainly no baseball scout, although I'm trying to learn something about what scouts look for in a player. I just don't happen to necessarily buy into all the statistical dogma that's out there. To quote Bob Seger: "Call me a relic, call me what you will. Say I'm old fashioned, say I'm over the hill." As I've said many times, BA is still the first stat I look at when evaluating a prospect. It's not that I don't also value the ability to draw a walk or hit for power. I just don't think that a prospect who can't hit for average in the minor leagues is going to be able to stay much above the Mendoza Line in the majors. I'll put up 3 hypothetical batting lines:

Player A: .300/.315/.450.

Player B: .300/.360/.450.

Player C: .260/.360/.450.

If we are looking at established MLB players, yes, I'll take Player C as the guy who gives you the most offensive value. He gets on base at the same rate as Player B and hits for a lot more power. Player A would be the least valuable of the 3 at the MLB level. Let's say these are 3 AA players? Does that make a difference in which one you would pick? It definitely does for me. I believe that if Player C hits for a .260 BA in AA, he's going to have a heckuva time keeping his BA above .220 in the majors and all the other numbers in the line drop along with it to the point where he really isn't a very valuable player anymore. Anthony Rizzo of the Padres would be a perfect example and why I said the Padres did not get enough back in the AGone trade back when it was made. Given the choice between player A and Player B, yes, I would take Player B too. That's why I have both Brown and Panik ranked higher than Peguero despite Peguero having arguably equal or better tools. Given the choice between Player A and Player C though, I would definitely take player A, especially if he scouts well. I believe most sabermetric analysts would take Player C though, no matter what the scouts say, and that's where the divergence comes.

Francisco Peguero started out last season on the DL for arthroscopic surgery on his knee. That may have slowed him down a bit after he came back, but he still put up a fine season. Baggs reports that by the end of the season, Pegs was running normally and looked like his old self. There just aren't very many hitters who hit .300+ in the Eastern League, so count me as impressed by that. Pegs should move up to Fresno in 2012 which is a much more conducive hitting environment. He will have to learn to deal with those crafty AAA pitchers though. He will turn 24 yo mid-season so is starting to run out of time. He should have a big year in Fresno and be ready for a callup mid-late season and ready to challenge for an MLB gig in 2013. He has a very wiry body type and I see him still gaining power, but he may turn into too much of a "tweener". Brown is clearly the CF of the future for the Giants and Pegs might not hit for enough power to stick as a corner guy. I wouldn't be shocked if he's moved in a trade package at some point.

Down on the Farm: #4 Heath Hembree

2012-01-01T06:31:00.000-08:00

#4 Heath Hembree, RHP. 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 1/13/1989.

High A: 0-0, 0.73, 24.2 IP, 12 BB, 44 K, 21 Saves.

AA: 1-1, 2.83, 28.2 IP, 13 BB, 34 K, 17 Saves.

Heath Hembree's stock rose pretty dramatically too in 2011. In his first full season, he got on the closer track and rode it all the way up to AA. He overpowered hitters in both the Cal League and Eastern League with an explosive FB that sat at 96 MPH the day I saw him early in the season. I've read reports of him hitting 98-99 MPH at times. According to Baggs' write up in BA, he has a slider with the makings of a plus pitch, but his changeup is a work in progress. Hembree is a strikeout pitcher who likes to work up the the zone as evidenced by a GO/AO= 0.55. He tends to "climb the ladder" with the FB.

Hembree didn't have much a a college career pitching for 3 different schools. He's one of those scouting finds the Giants have become somewhat famous for. They grabbed him in the 5'th round of the 2010 draft.

As some of you know, I am not a big fan of the "closer track". Yes, it allows for rapid ascent in the system, but it also doesn't challenge pitchers to develop secondary stuff nor does it give them the time. Hembree may have the stuff to take it all the way to the majors, or maybe he can still develop his secondary stuff while closing in the minors. At some point you have to think MLB hitters are going to catch up with him if he isn't able to throw them off balance just a bit. I expect to see Hembree esconced in the closer role with Fresno to start the season, but the Giants are going to have a bullpen slot available for the taking in spring training. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hembree sitting in the Giants bullpen come opening day.

Down on the Farm: #3 Tommy Joseph

2011-12-31T04:54:00.000-08:00

#3 Tommy Joseph, C. 6'1", 220 lbs. BD: 7/16/1991. B-R, T-R.

High A .270/.317/.471, 32 2B, 22 HR.

I don't think any Giants prospect improved his stock as much as Tommy Joseph in 2011. Joseph is built like a boulder of granite and has been hitting tape measure HR's since high school. The problems were that he really didn't have a position to play and had a lot of trouble making contact when he wasn't hitting HR's. Joseph took a big step forward in 2011 at San Jose.

He started out struggling to make contact again and his BA collapsed to a .164 for the month of May. Then he seemed to find himself at the plate. First, he raised his BA to .297 for the month of June and kept it at .299 for July and August. Then, he started hitting HR's with 6 in July and 8 in August. He did have one HR binge in Lancaster, a well known launching pad, but beyond that, he hit 10 of his 22 total in San Jose which is much tougher on hitters than the average Cal League ballpark. He still struck out a lot, but dropped his K rate from 24.5% in 2010 to 18.2% in 2012.

What really propelled Joseph forward as a prospect, though, was defense. He was drafted as a catcher and has a strong arm with a pretty quick release. His size and granite-like build kept him from being agile behind the plate and he had clumsy footwork. Working with Andy Skeels at San Jose, Joseph was able to make major strides in improving his overall catching defense to the point where BA actually rated him as the top defensive catcher in the Cal League. Despite the "light tower power", Tommy Joseph's bat does not project all that well as a first base prospect or DH. As a catching prospect, though, the bat is legit.

The other big thing Joseph has going for him is his age. He was the second youngest prospect in the Cal League last year. He may well struggle mightily as he advances to AA, but he's young enough that he can spend 2 full seasons at AA and still be age appropriate for his level. Best case scenario for Joseph is he advances 1 level per year and is ready for the majors in 2014. More likely scenario is he takes 3 seasons to advance through AA/AAA and hits the majors in 2015 at age 23.

Down on the Farm: #2 Joe Panik

2011-12-29T07:01:00.000-08:00

#2 Joe Panik, SS. 6'1", 193 lbs. BD: 10/30/1990. B-L, T-R.

Cape Cod League 2010: .297, 9 2B, 3 HR, 23 BB, 15 K's, 11 SB in 175 AB.

St. John's(college): .398/.509/.642, 19 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 21 SB, 6 CS, 44 BB, 24 K, 9 HBP in 226 AB.

Short Season: .341/.401/.467, 10 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 13 SB, 5 CS, 28 BB, 25 K in 270 AB.

AFL: .323/.394/.473, 6 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 0 SB, 9 BB, 10 K in 93 AB.

Joe Panik was a busy boy in 2011 playing the equivalent of a full MLB season between college, short season ball and the AFL. Is this guy too good to be true, or what? There were some raised eyebrows when the Giants selected him as their first round draft pick, although in retrospect, it probably should not have been a surprise. Panik was a late riser on several analysts draft boards after a terrific junior season at St Johns. Giants fans who were initially skeptical were quickly won over when Panik signed immediately and started raking in the Northwest League.

Just looking at his stat lines is almost a surreal experience as they practically ooze with a seemingly endless supply of statistical goodness. By now, everybody knows how much I love to see high batting averages. Well, Panik has those. Power, maybe just a tad short, but it's there. Speed? Between college and the pros, he stole 34 bases with a 75% success rate. Consistency? Just notice how similar the lines are across every level he played! But, if you really want to get your sabermetric juices flowing, just take a look at those BB and K numbers. When was the last time you saw a Giants prospect with consistently more walks than K's? OK, want one more? He hit .393 against lefthanders in the AFL! To top it all off, Panik didn't turn 21 yo until after the season and already has close to a full season's worth of professional AB's under his belt. That is almost unheard of in a college draftee.

So, what's the problem with Joe Panik and why isn't he considered an elite prospect? Unfortunately, a ton of his value is tied to his ability to play shortstop in the majors and there are questions about that. He has a history of a shoulder injury and there is concern about whether he can make the throw from the hole. Also, his range may be a bit short. He makes up for these perceived deficiencies with excellent footwork, positioning and hands. Analysts are divided on whether he can stick at SS. The Giants insist he can, but the doubters were not assuaged by him playing 2B in the AFL. The stated reason for him playing 2B in the AFL was because the Giants wanted Brandon Crawford to start there and they wanted Panik to get the extra AB's. Besides, it's not a bad thing to gain versatility. It's not that he's a bad prospect at 2B, but he might be an elite prospect at SS due to the position scarcity factor.

I expect he will be the starting SS for San Jose in 2012, but wouldn't be totally shocked if he skipped SJ and went to Richmond on the strength of his AFL showing. Whether he is the Giants SS of the future or their 2B of the future, there seems little doubt that Giants fans can safely dream about the day when he bats 2'nd in the lineup behind Gary Brown with Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey waiting to drive them in. Now, how great of a mental picture is that, anyway?

Down on the Farm: #1 Gary Brown

2011-12-28T02:02:00.000-08:00

Gary Brown, OF. 6'1", 190 lbs. BD: 9/28/1988. B-R, T-R.

High A: .336/.407/.519, 34 2B, 13 3B, 14 HR, 53 SB, 19 CS.

AFL: .220/.278/.300 in 47 AB.

In his first full professional season, Gary Brown lived up to his first round draft pick pedigree, not only hitting for average and stealing a lot of bases, but also showing he can take a walk and not depend on BABIP to get on base. Although he probably won't ever hit a lot of HR"s he showed impressive extra-base power with 61 XBH's out of 188 hits and he did reach double digits in all 3 XBH categories. He struggled in the AFL but as hampered by a persistant respiratory virus and possibly by the same fatigue from a long season that Buster Posey experienced in 2009. Since he got sick in the desert, there was some concern that he might have contracted Valley Fever, but the Giants issued a statement specifically saying it was not Valley Fever.

The Giants have come under some criticism this offseason for not promoting Brown aggressively to AA. I have to admit I'm not sure what came first, the chicken or egg, but Brown did go into a rather severe month long slump in June just about the time teammates Heath Hembree and Chris Dominguez were promoted. He recovered nicely in July and tore it up down the stretch in August. I might have liked to see an August promotion to AA, but in light of the fatigue issue in the fall, it's probably better they didn't ask more of him than they did.

In his post-season presser, Sabes strongly suggested that the Giants won't have Brown skip AA like they did Buster Posey and for all practical purposes, Brandon Belt. He will likely start the season in Richmond which is always a challenge for Giants hitting prospects. The mid-season slump and uncertainty about how he will fare in AA probably limit Brown to B+ prospect status. A strong season in 2012 would almost surely vault him into elite prospect status. We could see a September callup, although 40 man roster considerations may play a role in that determination. 2013 would be the earliest to expect him to arrive permanently on the MLB scene.

I do see Brown as the Giants CF of the future. I read recently that the Mets wanted Brown in the trade for Beltran and the Giants definitely preferred to part with Zack Wheeler, so that tells you something about how highly the Giants valued Brown. He's an excellent fielder in CF covering a tremendous amount of ground. The arm is rated slightly above average but what he lacks in arm strength he makes up for in accuracy and decision making. CF is not usually a big position for assists but Brown had several from there in 2011. As for things to improve on, he needs to show he can avoid prolonged slumps and he could improve his success rate on steals.

Down on the Farm: Dr B's 2012 Giants Top 50 Prospects

2011-12-26T17:05:00.000-08:00

The Giants don't have an elite prospect this year such as a Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner. They do have a fairly clear #1 in Gary Brown. They also run very deep with prospects who I think have a chance to have significant major league careers running deep into the honorable mention category. Most analysts would prefer to see 1 or 2 elite prospects at the top than depth, but a lot of these kids are quite young and have a chance to break out into elite status. Having a large number of those increases the probability that some of them will break out. Overall, I think it's a strong farm system, certainly much stronger than when I used to do these in the early-mid 2000's. Remember too that the list would look a lot better with Brandon Belt on it, but Belt has technically graduated even though he's still a prospect for all practical purposes. Anyway, here's the list. We will give a more detailed report on each prospect on on a nearly daily basis running up to Spring Training. As always, please don't get too hung up on the exact order. The main point of the exercise is to get better acquainted with the prospects in the Giants organization.

1. Gary Brown, OF

2. Joe Panik, SS

3. Tommy Joseph, C

4. Heath Hembree, RHP

5. Francisco Peguero, OF

6. Kyle Crick, RHP

7. Andrew Susac, C

8. Eric Surkamp, LHP

9. Hector Sanchez, C

10. Ehire Adrianza, SS

11. Chris Dominguez, 3B

12. Ricky Oropesa, 1B

13. Clayton Blackburn, RHP

14. Jesus Galindo, OF

15. Adalberto Mejia, LHP

16. Jarrett Parker, OF

17. Mike Kickham, LHP

18. Seth Rosin, RHP

19. Josh Osich, LHP

20. Hector Correa, RHP

21. Leonardo Fuentes, OF

22. Rafael Rodriguez, OF

23. Angel Villalona, 1B

24. Joan Gregorio, RHP

25. Charlie Culberson, 2B

26. Roger Kieschnick, OF

27. Dan Otero, RHP

28. Kendry Flores, RHP

29. Conor Gillaspie, 3B

30. Jake Dunning, RHP

31. Austin Fleet, RHP

32. Chris Marlowe, RHP

33. Alex Burg, C/3B/1B

34. Brett Bochy, RHP

35. Adam Duvall, 3B

36. Jacob Dunnington, RHP

37. Chuckie Jones, OF

38. Ryan Cavan, 2B

39. Justin Fitzgerald, RHP

40. Chris Heston, RHP

41. Stephen Harrold, RHP

42. Shawn Payne, OF

43. Kentrell Hill, OF

44. Edward Concepcion, RHP

45. Bryce Bandilla, LHP

46. Ray Black, RHP

47. Cody Hall, RHP

48. Emmanuel Dejesus, LHP

49. Demondre Arnold, RHP

50. Jean Delgado, SS

Honorable Mention: Brett Pill 1B, Stephen Edlefsen RHP, Johnny Monell C, Justin Christian OF, Tyler Graham OF, Kelvin Marte LHP, Ydwin Villegas SS, Chris Lofton OF, Carlos Willoughby 2B, Gaspar Santiago LHP, Brett Krill OF, Ben Thomas 1B, Joe Staley C, Mike Murray C, Dan Burkhart C, Cameron Lamb RHP, Lorenzo Mendoza RHP, Reiner Roibal RHP, Brandon Allen RHP, Matt Graham RHP, Garrett Buechele 3B, Leonardo Ochoa OF, Chris Gloor LHP, Jack Snodgrass LHP, Stephen Shackleford RHP, Keith Bilodeau RHP, Mike Merganthaler OF, Kelby Tomlinson SS, Eric Sim C, Christian Otero SS, Elliott Blair OF, Jose Cuevas 3B, Christian Paulino 3B/2B, Christian Diaz OF, Edwin Escobar LHP, Miguel Ferrer RHP, Luis Angeles RHP, Paul Davis LHP, Brian Maloney RHP, Derek Law RHP, Danny Sandbrink RHP, Ryan Bean RHP.

Dominican Dandies: Randy Ortiz 2B, Carlos Cartegena OF, Marvin Barrios RHP, Simon Mercedes RHP, Royel Astacio, 3B.

Hope I haven't missed anyone. Not too late to add somebody if I did.

Hot Stove Update: Have the Giants Upgraded Their Offense?

2011-12-25T10:57:00.000-08:00

Merry Christmas, everybody! Hope Santa thought you were all nice in 2011. My family opened presents this morning, I've done a few household chores and Christmas dinner is cooking, so I have a few minutes and am rapidly getting bored. Thought I'd write a quick post.

In the seemingly endless discussion amongst internet Giants fans is a common assertion that the Giants have done nothing to upgrade their offense this year. I decided to do a little research on this question and see if I could bring some light instead of just more heat to the discussion.

First of all, at no time last year did the Giants have their best lineup on the field for more than a couple of games mainly due to injuries. Here is a list of Giants Team OPS Splits by month:

March/April- .675
May- .658
June- .653
July- .657
August- .636
September- .756.

As you can see, there was a significant dropoff after Buster's injury and a big rebound in September after Beltran recovered from his wrist injury. I believe Crawford and Belt hit better in September too. Taken as a whole, though, which is probably the most fair way to look at it, the team OPS was .671 which ranked #27 out of 30 MLB teams and #15 out of 16 NL teams. The range for all teams was .640-.810 with the Phillies at .717 and the Cubs at .715 the two middle teams. The range for the NL was a narrower .653-.766 with the Cubs at .715 and Marlins at .706 the two middle clubs.

It is difficult to compare team stats for last season with projections due to uncertainties and inconsistencies in playing time. Baseball Reference has a breakdown of stats by position that might help us get close though. Here are the Giants OPS Splits by position for 2012:

C .628
1B .732
2B .667
3B .817
SS .564
LF .684
CF .646
RF .801
P .372

The average for the positions is .657 which is lower than the true Team OPS because a simple averaging by position gives too much weight to the pitching position and to positions that might have hit lower in the order than others. It does, however, provide a fairly simple reference point against a projection of next year's likely lineup. I used ZIPS projections for a likely Giants lineup in 2012. ZIPS is probably the most advanced of the projection systems and is more conservative than Bill James.

C(Buster Posey+Chris Stewart)- .759
1B(Aubrey Huff)- .751
2B(Fred Sanchez)- .686
3B(Pablo Sandoval)- .844
SS(Brandon Crawford)- .627
LF(Melky Cabrera)- .765
CF(Angel Pagan)- .725
RF(Nate Schierholtz)- .736
P .372

Total average projection= .696. Again, this is a slight underestimate due to weighting for lineup position. I will correct for this by adding in the difference between the Team OPS for 2012 and the average of Team Splits by position which is .014 for a total of .710 which puts them at #9 on the NL, .005 behind the #8 Cubs. It would put them at #19 for all of MLB, .007 behind the #15 Phillies. In other words, the Giants as currently constructed project to an approximately league average offense, which is a significant improvement over their aggregate lineup in 2011.

The estimated playing time for Buster is conservative. The projection rises if he plays more games at catcher. The projection systems love Brandon Belt and have him at an OPS of .817. That would be an upgrade at all 3 positions he is capable of playing, 1B, LF, RF. Going by projections alone, the best lineup would be to make Nate the 4'th OF(sorry Nate), move Melky to RF and put Belt in LF.

Projecting a 2012 lineup with Nate as a reserve and Belt in the lineup with Buster playing 140 games at C instead of 120 gives us an average .707. Add in the .014 correction for lineup weighting and you get .721. This gets them to #15(top half) in MLB behind Tampa Bay at .724. It gets them to #7 out of 16 in the NL behind the Mets at .725. Comparisons are to 2011 team stats and rankings because figuring out a projection for each team is prohibitively difficult and time consuming.

Using actual numbers, the Giants, as currently constructed project to close to a league average offense. As we have noted before, Brandon Belt is a huge wild card depending on whether his projections are accurate and how much playing time he gets. Of course, there are the usual caveats about projections. There is a reason why they play the games. Whether Belt plays or not or whether he is as good as projected or not, if you accept projections as more objective and conservative than say, taking a wild guess, then, as long as the pitching stays healthy, the Giants should be in great shape to contend for another title in 2012.

Scouting the Draft: Travis Jankowski

2011-12-24T06:50:00.000-08:00

OK, team. Gotta go into Christmas on a more positive note than the Beltran post.

Brian Sabean has a history of going back to things that work, until they don't work. The early returns on the last two drafts are that they have worked out very well for the Giants. In both cases, they went for low risk, high floor college hitters with excellent BA's but limited power at positions of relative scarcity. There is at least one player who fits that profile to a T in the upcoming 2012 draft. Travis Jankowski is a 4 tool CF for Stony Brook, an emerging program and alma mater of Joe Nathan. Acknowledgement to MLB Draft Guide linked over on the left for a nice career summary and scouting report on Jankowski.

Jankowski has nice size at 6'3", 190 lbs. He hits LH and throws RH. He is rated as a plus defender in CF with plus speed and and a strong arm. His offensive profile is a high batting average with some plate discipline and an ability to steal bases. Power is his one heretofore missing tool although he has the size for some possible upside in power. Here are his stats for his first two college seasons:

2010: .262/.339/.301 with 13 SB against 1 CS in 103 AB.
2011: .355/.419/.457 with 30 SB against just 4 CS in 186 AB.

Brian Sabean is well known to put a lot of stock in performance in wood bat summer leagues, particularly the Cape Cod League. This just happens to be where Jankowski has really shined:

2010 .346/.414/.385 with 6 SB in just 26 AB.
2011 .329/.410/.445 with 15 SB against 5 CS in 173 AB.

He was the 2011 Cape Cod League MVP while leading the league in hits, runs and triples. He was second in steals.

mlb.com has a scouting video up that includes a nice AB where he hangs in against a LHP and drives a ball up the middle. I found the link to the video by searching Travis Jankowski on Google Video. That's the only video of Jankowski in action I could find.

I've seen a couple of mock drafts with Jankowski going to the Giants at #20. I've seen him ranked anywhere from #20 down to about #35 or so. He certainly fits the mold of Gary Brown and Joe Panik from the Giants last 2 drafts. The danger in going back to the same well too many times in the draft is it can unbalance your organization. On the other hand, there are worse things for an organization than to have a surplus of talent at a position of relative scarcity. 4 tool CF's don't exactly grow on trees. I would be happy, though maybe not thrilled, if the Giants drafted Travis Jankowski at #20 in the 2012 draft.

Hot Stove Update: Beltran Signs With the Cardinals

2011-12-23T04:18:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, it was announced that the St. Louis Cardinals had reached an agreement on a contract with Carlos Beltran at a cost of 2 years/$26 M. Predictably, the Giants oriented internet community erupted in a salvo of F-bombs directed at Giants management in general and Brian Sabean in particular, raging at a litany of fan grievances old and new, but mostly old.

Before getting into the signing, or non-signing, and it's impact on the Cardinals and Giants, lets get a few things out of the way"

1. Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand were signed 6 and 5 years ago, respectively. Those signings have been hashed and rehashed, reviled, spat upon repeatedly and ad nauseum. Whether they are Brian Sabean's fault or Peter Magowan's, it's water under the bridge, folks. Water under the bridge! The Giants have won a World Series Championship with those two contracts on the books. Time to move on!

2. The Giants are never going to have a payroll like the Red Sox or Yankees or Angels. I don't know if the Giants ownership group can afford more or not. I don't pretend to have inside knowledge of the Giants accounting books. But you know what? It doesn't matter! $130 M is a very reasonable payroll for a MLB team and ownership is going to set their payroll limits based on whatever they set them on and raging about it from now until doomsday is not going to change it. Again, time to move on!

3. The Beltran trade is done and has no bearing on this offseason. There was no team option to use as leverage for a new contract. There were no compensatory draft picks coming. Beltran became a free agent at the end of the season as in free as a bird. The Giants traded their best pitching prospect for a chance to revive a moribund offense, get back into the playoffs and possibly win a second consecutive World Series, nothing more, nothing less. Seeing how the postseason played out, it wasn't a pipe dream that if they could just squeak back into the playoffs they had a chance to go all the way again. It didn't work out. Time to move on!

If you need one more round of raging catharsis about any of the 3 above topics, I suggest visiting the Message Board at sfgiants.com and mccoveychronicles.com. They are conveniently linked over to the left. You will find plenty of like minded folks at both places to rage along with. On to the signing!

Carlos Beltran is one of the better hitters in baseball. He was probably the 4'th best offensive player on the free agent market after Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes, maybe even better than Reyes. He signed for a very reasonable contract both in years and dollars. The Cardinals can now move Lance Berkman to first base and put Beltran in RF and still have a very good offense despite the loss of Pujols. They also have to run the table on Beltran, Berkman and Furcal staying healthy for the length of the season at somewhat long odds.

As for the Giants, most fans long ago accepted that they were not going to get Pujols, Fielder or Reyes, but the flame of hope still burned for Beltran. That he ended up signing for a seemingly affordable price caused the frustration to boil over with even greater intensity. Was he really that affordable? Beltran essentially said at the end of the season that signing him came with strings attached for the Giants, namely they had to also upgrade the top of their batting order. In essence, Beltran presented Brian Sabean and the Giants with a Gordian Knot and said, "if you can untie this, I'll consider signing" The knot consisted of 3 strands of rope tied together, 2 strands provided by Beltran, 1 by the Giants ownership group: 1. Upgrade the top of the order. 2. Sign Beltran 3. Stay under a payroll budget of $130 M. Brian Sabean countered by setting his own priorities: 1. Keep the pitching intact. 2. Upgrade CF and the top of the order. 3. Sign Beltran if there was enough left over. You had to know at that point that Beltran wasn't signing with the Giants.

As currently constructed, after all the players offered arbitration are signed, the Giants payroll will likely stand at somewhere around $126-127 M. Signing Beltran would put that number up to right around $140 M, $10 M over budget. The money would have to had to come from cuts elsewhere in the budget. This is where the discussion gets interesting and the rageaholics may have a legitimate claim that needs to be addressed. Did Brian Sabean paint himself into a corner with premature moves that ate up the money that could have been spent on Beltran?

The primary target of the "naysayers" is the contracts for Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez. Add those two and you get just under $10 M. Put that with the $3-4 M surplus and you are right at the $13 M that Beltran signed for. We'll go ahead and assume Beltran would have accepted the same deal from the Giants, no sure bet. Do you really want to lose the advantage the Giants have in the late innings of close games against LH middle of the order bats? Do you really want to turn those AB's over to George Sherrill and Dan Runzler, or to Santiago Casilla? I don't care what the WARmongers say. WAR undervalues those high leverage outs. I know there are a lot of people out there who know a lot about baseball who will continue to insist that Affeldt and Lopez are completely fungible assets and the money spent on them should have been spent on Beltran. I'm not buying what they are selling. The thought of George Sherrill or Dan Runzler facing Prince Fielder or Jay Bruce in the 8'th inning with runners on base is just too sickening, and that doesn't even count the Miguel Monteros, Andre Ethiers or CarGones of the world. OK, maybe Sherrill holds his own against LH batters but there's also the switch-hitters who managers like to turn around to bat RH. Affeldt and Lopez fair much better against them.

What about Melky and Pagan? They are going to make about $9-10 M between them. Instead of trading for them, the Giants could have simply non-tendered Sanchez, Torres and Ramirez and taken the money saved to sign Beltran with the $3-4 M budget surplus thrown in, of course. There are a few problems with this scenario:

1. It eliminates the upgrades at the top of the lineup, something Beltran had stipulated as a precondition for him to consider signing.

2. It leaves the Giants with no CF. OK, maybe you consider Tyler Graham or Justin Christian perfectly acceptable options to play CF and hit leadoff and you might be able to defend it from projections. I'm pretty sure Beltran would not find them acceptable.

As currently constructed, if the Giants stay healthy and, on average, play to their projections, they should make the playoffs and have a chance to get another ring. Signing or not signing Beltran, under the Giants circumstances does nothing to change that, in fact, a case can be made that the cuts it would have taken to sign Beltran would lessen those chances.

At this point, the Giants are looking for 5'th starter options who are willing to sign minor league deals. I think they still need another RH bat with some pop off the bench who can play OF. There should be some options for that still on the shelf after the arbitration guys are all taken care of. I can't wait for the season to start!

Down on the Farm: Pick 2

2011-12-22T08:14:00.000-08:00

Hey team,

Pick 2 of these 4 players to round out the Top 50:

Johnny Monell
Steve Edlefsen
Demondre Arnold
Jean Delgado

Hot Tip: The Giants Are Good at Baserunning

2011-12-22T03:14:00.000-08:00

Hey team,

OGC did a great job researching some very interesting info on the Giants baserunning skills. There is a lot more that goes into baserunning than just SB's. Look for his article by clicking on ObsessiveGiantsCompulsive over to the left.

Down on the Farm: Help With Dr B's Top 50 Giants Prospects

2011-12-20T08:27:00.000-08:00

Hey team!

I have completed a list of players to consider for DrB's 2012 Giants Top 50 Prospects list. Guys, there's 90 players on the list! I ovviously need to pare that down a lot. Out of those 90, I have identifed 40 who I think are definite keepers for the final list. That leaves 50 players vying for the last 10 spots. Just for fun, I'm going to list those 50 players here and ask you to rank your top 20, in order if possible. I will then compile a new list using those opinions to narrow it down to the final 10 and then rank those last 10. Here goes(no particular order):

Johnny Monell, C, AA
Ryan Cavan, 2B, High A
Justin Fitzgerald, RHP, AA
Stephen Edelfsen, RHP, AAA
Chris Heston, RHP, High A
Stephen Harrold, RHP, High A
Kelvin Marte, LHP, High A
Ydwin Villegas, SS, Low A
Chris Lofton, OF, Low A
Carlos Willoughby, 2B, Low A
Edward Concepcion, RHP, Low A
Gaspar Santiago, LHP, Low A
Brett Krill, OF, Short Season
Ben Thomas, 1B, Short Season
Joe Staley, C, Short Season
Mike Murray, C, Short Season
Cameron Lamb, RHP, Short Season
Lorenzo Mendoza, RHP, Short Season
Reiner Roibal, RHP, Short Season
Brandon Allen, RHP, Short Season
Matt Graham, RHP, Short Season
Garrett Buechele, 3B, Short Season
Leonardo Ochoa, OF, Short Season
Cody Hall, RHP, Short Season
Chris Gloor, LHP, Short Season
Jack Snodgrass, LHP, Short Season
Stephen Shakleford, RHP, Short Season
Keith Bilodeau, RHP, Short Season
Mike Merganthaler, OF, Short Season
Kelby Tomlinson, SS, Rookie
Eric Sim, C, Rookie
Christian Otero, SS, DNP
Elliott Blair, OF, Rookie
Jose Cuevas, 3B, Rookie
Christian Paulino, 3B/2B, Rookie
Jean Delgado, SS, Rookie
Christian Diaz, OF, Rookie
Demondre Arnold, RHP, Rookie
Edwin Escobar, LHP, Rookie
Miguel Ferrer, RHP, Rookie
Randy Ortiz, 2B, DSL
Carlos Cartegena, OF, DSL
Marvin Barrios, RHP, DSL
Ray Black, RHP, DNP
Bryce Bandilla, LHP, DNP
Dan Burkhart, C, Short Season

OK, That's only 46. my numbers are messed up somewhere. Go ahead and list your top 20 out of the above list.

Thanks for the help, everybody!

Hot Stove Update: Projecting Emmanuel Burriss

2011-12-19T04:06:00.000-08:00

The Giants recently raised some eyebrows they offered arbitration to Emmanuel Burriss virtually guarateeing him a spot on the Opening Day 25 man active roster. Giants VP Bobby Evans commented, "His value is catching up after all his injuries. He's getting back to his game. We've seen things we haven't seen in the past. Amazing play in the OF. Even at first base, he showed a lot of utility and value. We think he's earned it." So, it seems that Burriss is set to be one of two reserve middle infielders along with Mike Fontenot and will double as one of two reserve OF's at the same time.

The eyebrow raising part was that virtually everyone was looking for the Giants to find a reserve infielder, preferably who bats RH, with some pop in his bat. Emmanuel Burriss is about as close to 180 degrees opposite as you can get. Last year, he was so weak offensively, that despite excellent defense at multiple positions, he got sent back to Fresno to make room for Bill Hall of all people! So, have the Giants brass lost their collective minds entirely? Well, maybe or maybe not depending on how you look at it. I decided to take another look at Burriss and focus not on what he can't do, but what he can and might do.

Burriss was drafted in he supplemental first round of the 2006 draft, the Timmy draft. Burriss was a fast riser on draft boards after an effusive Baseball America article late in the spring. Here was a kid who looked like he could stick at SS who hit .360 with an OBP of .446 with 42 SB's and only 2 CS. He even showed a whiff of power with 4 HR's! Shortstops who can get on base like that and then steal bases like that don't exactly grow on trees. It looked like the Giants got not one, but two steals at the top of the 2006 draft.

Burriss signed quickly and was assigned to Salem-Keizer where he got off to a great start to his pro career with a line of .307/.384/.366 with 35 SB's. The first sign of trouble came in 2007 when he got off to a horrible start in San Jose and was demoted to low A Augusta where he got his feet back on the ground with a line of .321/.374/.381 with 51 SB's.

The Giants fast-tracked him in 2008 and he put up an interesting line of .283/.357/.329 with 13 SB's in 240 AB's for the MLB club. I had forgotten his numbers were that good! One problem seemed to be that the GIants lost faith in his ability to play SS and he played mostly 2B. He won the starting 2B job out of spring training in 2009 over Kevin Frandsen in what was a somewhat controversial decision and one that was not taken well by Frandsen.

Burriss struggled offensively in 2009 with a line of .238/.292/.267 with 11 SB's, and got sent down to Fresno in favor of Matt Downs due to his weak offensive production. He later fractured his left foot and then refractured it in the spring of 2010. He underwent surgery to have it pinned and later came back to finish the 2010 season in Fresno with a line of .282/.334/.337 with 11 SB's in 273 AB's.

Burriss started the 2011 season in Fresno, but got another chance with the Giants after Freddy Sanchez went down with a separated shoulder. In 127 AB's he put up a pathetic line of .204/.253/.212 with 11 SB's against 3 CS. His overall line at Fresno was much better at .297/.386/.389 with 24 SB's against 5 CS.

So, where does that saga leave Emmanuel Burriss in the overall scheme of things Giant? Well, for one thing, 2012 will be his age 27 season, so he should be entering the prime years of his career, whatever that turns out to be. For another, he's now put in over 1900 professional AB's not quite 1 season's worth more than the 1500 that Brian Sabean believes is necessary to prepare a prospect for the major leagues. His overall minor league line sits at .285/.348/.344 with 147 SB's against 44 CS in 1353 AB's. He composite MLB line is .250/.311/.281 with 35 SB's against 12 CS in 584 AB's. Just for fun, here is Burriss' ZIPS projection for 2012: .255/.308/.306 with 23 SB against 8 CS in 337 AB. At this point it seems like we have enough data to draw several conclusions:

1. He is unlikely to ever hit for any power, period.
2. He is able to maintain a respectable IsoOBP of about .060 which is not half bad for a guy with no power.
3. He is able to steal bases with about a 75% success rate which means his SB's are an asset to his team.

Burriss will likely won't be the first backup option at any of several positions to start the season. He's going to have to take make the most of his chances when they come, which will make it harder to to get his BA above .250 which he needs in order to have any real offensive value. Over the last 2 years, Bruce Bochy has shown an interest in using Burriss and Darren Ford almost like designated pinch runners late in close games with some isolated successes, most notably Ford's mad dash around the bases to save the 2010 Championship season. Look for Burriss to get quite a few of those chances, then possibly staying in the game as a defensive replacement. How many SB's and Runs do you suppose he might accumulate if he appeared 162 times as a pinch runner and nothing else? I'm thinking about 30/30 which wouldn't be terrible production from a bench player.

Burriss also gives Bochy an option of going with a "speed lineup" with consisting of Pagan, Burriss, Melky, Nate, Brando Belt and Brandon Crawford. Projecting that lineup over a full season I'm thinking they could generate 124 SB's:

Pagan- 35
Burriss- 35
Melky- 18
Nate- 12
Belt- 10
Crawford- 6
Sandoval- 4
Posey- 4

That would put them near the top 10 in MLB as opposed to the #24 with the 85 they had last year. For an offensively challenged team who plays a lot of close ballgames that might not be a terrible way to play it. If Freddy Sanchez can get back to his pre-injury production at the plate, he might generate more offense than Burriss, but possibly not by a lot. If Burriss could get his BA above .250, I'm thinking he could get his SB's into the 40's and generate at least as many runs as Freddy's marginally better power.

Do you think Emmanuel Burriss has any role on the 2012 Giants and beyond?

Scouting the Draft: Jeffrey Gibbs

2011-12-18T07:33:00.000-08:00

I think I've stumbled onto a sleeper of sleepers who seems like a perfect Giants draft pick. I was perusing the College Baseball Daily website and came across an article about a RHP named Jeffrey Gibbs who plays for Univ. of Maine. Gibbs is from Canada and had a scouting video on mlb.com for the 2009 draft coming out of high school. He's got great size: 6'4", 215 lbs. Here's the part that got my attention: He throws 97 MPH! Well, he actually uses an easier motion to sit at 92-94 MPH and gets more movement in that range, but he dials it up to 97 when he has to. He also has a drop-off-the-table breaking ball that generates swings and misses. He is reportedly hard at work this fall on a changeup that he plans to use more in the spring games.

His stat line in 2011 wasn't spectacular, but that makes him all the more typical of a Giants pitching draft pick, right?

8-5, 3.42, 76.1 IP, 46 BB, 69 K's. He held opposing batters to a .204 BA

This guy has the strength to go deep into games. He could be developed as a starter or else go to the pen and hump up that velocity into the 97-99 mph range.

One more tidbit: Keith Bilodeau, who the Giants drafted and signed in the 2011 draft, was a teammate of Gibbs last year, so we know the Giants are aware of him. The Giants seem to have a very active scout up in the far northeast.

I looked Gibbs up on some top college prospects lists. He was nowhere to be found! He isn't even listed as a top 55 pitcher for the draft by the guy at MLB Draft Guide! His coach says he could be drafted in rounds 1-5. He might be a bit of a reach in round 1 but I could so see the Giants drafting him in round 2 or 3. He would be a steal in round 5.

Jeffrey Gibbs is definitely one of several pitchers we'll be following closely once the college season starts.

Hot Stove Update: Padres Trade Latos for Huge Haul

2011-12-17T15:57:00.000-08:00

The San Diego Padres made a major trade with the Cincinnati Reds today, sending Giants nemesis Mat Latos to the Reds for a package including Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger. I like this trade for the Padres. I appears to me that the package they are getting is stronger than the one they got last year for AGone. This is an example of how a rebuilding team can take top notch, cost controlled talent and leverage it into even more talent that is even more cost controlled.

We all know about Latos. I don't dig his punky attitude or his hideous tattoos, but he does have undeniable talent. From the Reds' perspective, they gave up several good, but blocked prospects for a top of the rotation starter that they hope will put them over the top while they have a window with Joey Votto. There is a point of view that the Reds might have been better off in the long run trading Votto for a big package, but there is nothing wrong with this move either. Latos is more than a Product of Petco. He's big, athletic, throws hard. He can get strikeouts and grounders. He does tend to be on the wild side with both his arm and his mouth. Reportedly the Padres had concerns about how his lack of maturity would impact him going forward.

I would think Yonder Alonzo is the centerpiece of the deal from the Padres perspective. I've really liked Alonso since his college days in Miami. He not only hits for power but a terrific BA too. You all know how much stock I put in BA, especially when it's combined with power. He also exhibits excellent plate discipline to top it all off. He was a guy I wouldn't have minded the Giants drafting in 2008, not that I'm at all unhappy with Buster Posey. Alonso is kind of the opposite type of first base hitter as Anthony Rizzo, the guy the Padres got in the AGone trade last year. Alonso will likely give you a solid BA with extra base power. I project him to hit 20-25 HR's in a neutral ballpark so he could be more like 15-20 in Petco and the other west coast ballparks. Rizzo is more all power with questions about whether he can make enough contact.

Grandal is a switch-hitting catcher also out of Miami. He's projects to have a solid bat from both sides of the plate with adequate defense. He will likely spend the year in AAA for a bit more seasoning, but should be the Padres starting catcher for 5-6 years after that.

Brad Boxberger was an underachiever at USC. He seems to have found a niche in the bullpen and projects as no worse than an 8'th inning guy. He's put up outstanding K/IP ratios in the minors so far.

Volquez is a reclamation project. The Padres are likely hoping he can find success in the friendly expanses of Petco which they can parlay into even more inexpensive talent with a deadling trade or a trade next offseason.

Solid trade for Josh Byrnes and the San Diego Padres.

In other news, the Colorado Rockies signed Michael Cuddyer to a 3 year deal. Cuddyer is a guy who could really thrive in Coors Field. He could be a nice #5 in the order behind CarGone and Tulo.

Jimmy Rollins signed a 3 year deal with the Philies for $33 M and a vesting option for a 4'th season. This one hurts a little. It seems like the Giants could have figured out a way to swing this deal and give themselves a solid SS for the next 3 seasons. I think Crawford will do a fine job, but is unlikely to come close to Rollins' production over the next 3 seasons, and Rollins' deal is not crippling by any stretch.

Blast From the Past: Barry Bonds Sentence

2011-12-16T17:01:00.000-08:00

Barry Bonds was sentenced today for his conviction of misleading a Grand Jury. More on that later. The sentence was for a month of home confinement, a fine of $4,100, 250 hours of community service and 2 years probation. The sentence was immediately stayed by the Judge to allow Bonds to appeal his conviction to the Federal 9'th Circuit Court of Appeals, a process that could take an estimated 18 months. The federal prosecutor, who was seeking a prison sentence, was not happy. He argued that Bonds led a double life, used steroids, kept mistresses while he was married 3 times, none of which had one shred of anything to do with what Bonds was convicted of. More on THAT later too!

I have to admit to conflicting feelings about the whole sorry steroid/performance enhancing drug(PED) mess. On the one hand, I abhor the whole notion that kids feel they have to take drugs like this to have a chance to succeed in their chosen sport. I want a level playing field for kids who don't put harmful substances into their bodies. The whole PED episode in Major League Baseball has diminished my own appreciation for the achievements of many players during that era, including those of Barry Bonds. On the other hand, PED's, in one form or another, are ubiquitous in the workplace for all of us, and have always been a part of the game of baseball.

Caffeine is a PED. It is a stimulant that makes you feel energetic when you would otherwise feel tired. It makes you alert when you would otherwise feel sleepy. It's everywhere! It is mildly addictive. Society has decided that it's benefits far outweigh any harm that it does or any unfair advantage it may give us. As far as I know, there is no disease process that has been linked to caffeine except maybe some irregular heart rhythms in some people, and there is no evidence that is shortens anyone's life.

Nicotine is a PED. There is a reason why it is used by many ballplayers during games other than peer pressure. Nicotine improves concentration and possibly other cognitive functions. Similar drugs have been studied as possible treatments for Alzheimer's Disease. Unfortunately, nicotine is highly addictive and it's long term use causes a host of terrible diseases that cost all of us enormous amounts of money in increased healthcare costs. There is no question that it shortens lives. Once upon a time, society accepted that the benefits of nicotine outweighed its negatives. While that is no longer the case, it is still a legal drug that can be purchased without a prescription, even though it continues to be a significant public health problem.

Alcohol could be considered a PED when used in small-moderate quantities in certain social situations. When used in high quantities or for prolonged periods of time, it can be extremely impairing and downright dangerous. It has severe addictive potential and can cause a wide variety of diseases, some fatal. It is legal for adults to buy and sell alcohol and it is widely used.

Amphetamines are PED's. They have a similar effect as caffeine only much more dramatic. They are highly addictive and can lead to behaviors that endanger not only the user but others around the user. Society has collectively decided that the risks of amphetamines outweigh the benefits. Most of them are either illegal or else require a special prescription from a physician. Yet, their use remains widespread. They were used extensively by ballplayers in the 60's and 70's, probably the 80's too.

Anabolic steroids are also PED's. They aid in building muscle mass and possibly in wound healing. Long term use can cause a variety of disease processes and behavior disorders. There is overwhelming circumstantial evidence that their use by baseball players and participants in other sports was widespread in the 1990's and early 2000's. Although many of these substances , like amphetamines, were illegal to prescribe or distribute, they were not banned by Major League Baseball until the last Collective Bargaining Agreement(CBA) with the Player's Association. There is abundant evidence that they were used with the knowledge and support of the people who govern the game. Society has rightfully collectively determined that these substances not only give the users an unfair advantage, but also carry a greater risk than benefit to the users. Although Major League Baseball has banned these substances and is now testing players for them, the Ryan Braun incident tells us that they are likely still being used by some baseball players.

I'm not sure what the point of all that is. I'll just make a few summary observations:

1. Most of us use PED's of one form or another in our own work and lives.

2. Drugs that are clearly harmful are still perfectly legal and easily obtainable.

3. Whether drugs/PED's are considered "good" or "bad" or acceptable vs unacceptable is largely determined by the consensus of public opinion.

I believe it is an open question whether it is right for players who used PED's prior to their formal banning in the CBA to be punished, either by MLB or by society through the judicial system. Of course, now that there is a formal ban and players are being tested, the rules need to be either enforced or eliminated.

In my opinion, the "War on Drugs" has done way more harm to our country than the drugs themselves. Not only has it led to incredible levels of violence and deaths, not only has it diverted resources that would be better used for other things, it has led to an erosion of our civil liberties that we should not tolerate.

A common practice by prosecutors is to use Grand Juries as a "perjury trap". Unlike other settings, you are not allowed to invoke the 5'th amendment in Grand Jury testimony if you are not the target of the Grand Jury, but neither do you get immunity from prosecution for things that are revealed by your statements. Most of us first became aware of this practice during Kenneth Starr's pursuit of Bill Clinton in the Whitewater investigation that somehow morphed into the Monica Lewinsky investigation and, well, you know the rest.

Federal prosecutors set the same trap for Barry Bonds. He had already told investigators he did not knowingly use PED's. Now he was going to be asked these questions again under oath in front of a Grand Jury. If he admitted to using PED's, then they would charge him with perjury in the investigation. If he denied using them, the prosecutors were confident they had enough evidence to convict him of perjury to the Grand Jury. Mind you, there was never any attempt to convict him of, you know, actually using PED's.

Bonds answered the key questions with "rambling, non-sequitors" that the Jury in his trial determined were "misleading" to the Grand Jury. He was convicted, not of lying to the investigators, but of misleading the Grand Jury, Obstruction of Justice. Fair enough. My only question is why is it a crime for Barry Bonds to "mislead" a Grand Jury, but it's apparently perfectly alright for the prosecutor to attempt to mislead the jury and judge by invoking all kinds of irrelevant information such as Bonds' still alleged longstanding PED use, and his habitual use of mistresses while he was married 3 times? Non sequitors! Now, THAT ought to be Obstruction of Justice!

In my opinion the biggest lesson we all should learn from this sad, sordid tale is that we can all apparently be convicted of a crime if we fail to enthusiastically support an investigation. That, and the general misuse of prosecutorial power, ought to scare the heck out of all of us.

Scouting the Draft: Taylore Cherry

2011-12-16T02:59:00.000-08:00

The trade of Zack Wheeler to the Mets for a 2 month rental of Carlos Beltran left a gaping hole in the Giants ordinarily strong organizational depth chart for pitchers. Even before that, the system had thinned out a lot with the graduation of Madison Bumgarner and the recent organizational emphasis on hitting. While you always want to see your team draft the best player available, especially in the first round of the draft, there are often several players who grade out as approximately equal at different positions giving some flexibility. In that situation, drafting for organizational need is not a terrible idea. HS RHP Taylore Cherry is a name that seems to move between #15 and #30 from mock draft to mock draft, keeping in mind that these rankings fluctuate wildly between now and draft day.

The thing that jumps out at you about Cherry is his size, 6'9", 260 lbs. The amazing thing is that even at that weight, he doesn't look overweight at all. Cherry sports a FB that goes 91-94 MPH with late movement. In one extended video on youtube.com, it looked like he has both a 4 seamer and 2 seamer. The 2 seamer has sink and armside run. His second pitch is a changeup that is rated plus. The breaking ball is a work in progress. Anther standout characteristic when you look at the videos is how easy his motion is. It looks like he just out there playing catch with the catcher with a minimum of visible effort.

Taylore Cherry's profile can be found at MLB Draft Guide linked on the left. There are a couple of links on the site to You Tube videos. I would be happy if Taylore Cherry was the Giants first round draft pick at #20.

Down on the Farm: BA's Giants Top 10 Prospects

2011-12-14T20:37:00.000-08:00

Andy Baggerly has his Giants top 10 Prospects list up at BA.com. I got my print version in the mail last weekend. Here's the list:

1. Gary Brown, OF
2. Tommy Joseph, C
3. Heath Hembree, RHP
4. Joe Panik, SS
5. Francisco Peguero, OF
6. Andrew Susac, C
7. Eric Surkamp, LHP
8. Kyle Crick, RHP
9. Ehire Adrianza, SS
10. Hector Sanchez, C

In the writeups and the chat, Baggs states that the Giants definitely had the option of trading Brown for Beltran instead of Wheeler and preferred to keep Brown.

I'm a bit surprise that both Joseph and Hembree are above Panik. I guess it's a good thing that a guy as good as Panik appears to be in only ranked #4.

I'm not sure about Adrianza in the top 10. His bat seems like it still has a long ways to go to even get to Brandon Crawford territory.

Charlie Culberson is #11. Ricky Oropesa is in the top 20. Brett Pill is in the top 15.

#2-8 could be in almost any order. Baggs sees a dropoff between Brown and Joseph and apparently another tier break after Crick at #8.

The Giants are looking for power like Ricky Oropesa in the draft because most FA power hitters don't want to come to SF.

That's about it. I have no big problem with the list. Baggs does his homework. I think he's gotten better at covering prospects since he started the BA gig.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Roster Breakdown

2011-12-14T02:36:00.000-08:00

With the end of the Winter Meetings and Brian Sabean all but declaring his offseason shopping finished, I thought it might be a good time to break down where the Giants stand with their roster construction for the 2012 season. We'll include salary estimates and see if there is any room left under the $130 M payroll limit Giants ownership has set for next season:

Starting Position Players(8)

C Buster Posey $480 K
1B Aubrey Huff $ 10 M
2B Freddy Sanchez $ 6 M
SS Brandon Crawford $480 K
3B Pablo Sandoval $3.2 M
LF Melky Cabrera $4.4 M
CF Angel Pagan $4.7 M
RF Nate Schierholtz $1.2 M

Position Player Reserves(5)

C Chris Stewart $480 K
IF Mike Fontenot $1.3 M
IF/OF Emmanuel Burriss $600 K
1B, 3B?, 2B?, OF? Brett Pill $480 K
1B/OF Brandon Belt $480 K

Starting PItchers(5)

SP Tim Lincecum $19.2 M
SP Matt Cain $ 15.3 M
SP Madison Bumgarner $800 K
SP Ryan Vogelsong $2.5 M
SP Barry Zito $19 M

Relief Pitchers(7)

CL Brian Wilson $8.5 M
RP Sergio Romo $1.3 M
RP Santiago Casilla $1.9 M
RP Jeremy Affeldt $ 5 M
RP Javier Lopez $4.25 M
RP Guillermo Mota $1 M
RP Dan Runzler $480 K

Warrior Spirit $13.6 M

Total Payroll $126.46 M

Numbers are taken from Cot's contracts and MLB Traderumors Projected Arbitration Salaries

Of course, we don't know what the exact total will be until after the arbitration cases are all settled. It's even possible that if things don't go the Giants way, this could bump up above $130 M, which is why they probably won't sign anyone else until after the arbitration process has played out. On the other hand, they could do some multi-year deals with some backloading which might lower their commitment in 2012 a bit further.

Belt probably needs to go to Fresno until/unless Aubrey Huff gets dumped. The one thing the Giants are lacking is a RH bat off the bench. Pill may fill that role, but they could sure use another one in the OF.

Here are some names of RH hitting FA OF's who might still be on the shelf after the arbitration process has played out:

Ryan Ludwick
Jonny Gomes
Marcus Thames
Conor Jackson
Ryan Spilborghs

All of them should be affordable. I probably like Ludwick the best out of that bunch. Jackson probably could be had on a minor league ST invite. Jackson is a guy who I think might be a sleeper, but then again, I've thought that for the last 2 years.

They could also potentially bring in another veteran bullpen arm and send Runzler back to Fresno. I'd probably rather see them let Runzler, Otero and Correa compete for the last spot with a ST invite for Heath Hembree and bring him aboard the MLB roster if he blows everybody away in ST.

Any other ideas to complete the roster? Potential Trades?

Hot Stove Update: Arbitration Contract Tender Day

2011-12-12T05:59:00.000-08:00

Today is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitation eligible players. The Giants have an unusually high number of players in this category including some pretty big names. Are Tim LIncecum and Pablo Sandoval big enough for you? Those guys, along with several others are no doubters. They will be offered contracts and the process will go on. At the other end of the spectrum is Eli Whiteside, who will amost surely not be offered a contract today making him a free agent. There are a couple on the bubble, most notably Jeff Keppinger and Mike Fontenot. Brian Sabean has already stated that one will be offered a contract and and one won't. It's almost literally down to who gets the chair when the music stops.

To my eye, the decision is easy. Fonty will be less expensive and can play multiple positions whereas Kepp is, for all practical purposes, stuck at 2B. Fonty had a down year at the plate last year, but Kepp was no great shakes and Fonty's projections are pretty solid. With a lefthanded leaning lineup, you might prefer a RH bat off the bench, but Fonty hits lefty's fairly well.

The Giants started out the Hot Stove League with 13 arbitration eligible players. They have pared that down to 10 with the trades of Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez and Ramon Ramirez. In addition to the aforementioned Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval, Eli Whiteside, Jeff Keppinger and Mike Fontenot, they have 5 more including Sergio Romo, Nate Schierholtz, Emmanuel Burriss, Santiago Casilla, and Ryan Vogelsong. I expect all of those to be offered contracts. You might think Emmanuel Burriss might not be, but Sabes has been talking him up as a reserve infielder lately, which makes you wonder slightly if both Kepp and Fonty might be gone.

In addition to the 8 starting position players, teams usually carry 5 reserves and 12 pitchers to round out the 25 man active roster. They have to carry a reserve catcher who I think will be Chris Stewart. As of right now, the other 4 would be Burriss, the winner of the Kepp/Fonty musical chairs competition, Brett Pill and Brandon Belt. I'm more and more thinking Belt goes to Fresno to start the season. Leaving one potential opening for an OF reserve. Usually teams go with 2 OF reserves though, which is why I'm thinking there might not be room for both Burriss and Fonty/Kepp. Sabes specifically mentioned Burriss as having played some OF though, so maybe they only carry one.

MLB Trade Rumors has a list of potential non-tender candidates from around the league. I'll just list a few who caught my eye. Theres always some listed who are most likely going to be offered contracts, but it's fun to take a look anyway. I'm specifically thinking of players who might become non-roster invitees to spring trainging. I'll include a few others who might raise some eyebrows but would not fit into the non-roster invitee category.

Position Players:

Daric Barton- Wow! His stock has sure dropped.
Jesus Flores- Backup catcher?
Tony Gwynn, Jr.
Jeremy Hermida- I one time drafted him at the end of my fantasy draft. LOL!
Ronny Paulino- backup catcher.
Landon Powell- backup catcher
Skip Schumaker
Ryan Spilborghs
Ryan Theriot- reserve middle infielder. Better than Fonty/Kepp?
Luke Scott- Nice bat for a corner OF/1B spot.
James Loney- The Dodgers had announced they would tender him a contract. Does the DUI change that? BTW, did you hear the one about the other cars involved in his accident? They're lucky he doesn't hit hard! LOL!

Pitchers:

Taylor Bucholz- reclamation project for bullpen?
Clay Hensley- former Giants farmhand.
Andrew Miller- very nice possible reclamation project. Former high first round draft choice.
Mike Pelfrey- probably will get picked up an a major league deal if non-tendered.
Chris Volstad- I would think he would be tendered or offered a major league deal if non-tendered, but an intriguing name for t he back of the rotation.
Jerome Williams- hard to imagine him not being tendered after his season with the Angels, but the CJ signing might have pushed him out. I would also think he will get a major league deal somewhere.

Who do you like on the possible non-tender list?

Hot Stove Update: Baggs Drops A Hand Grenade

2011-12-10T07:22:00.000-08:00

Andy Baggerly, the Giants beat writer for the San Jose Mercury News, dropped a small hand grenade into the Matt Cain contract negotiations yesterday that probably deserves some comment. In terms of impact, it was probably closer in payload to a cherry bomb or M80, but it's a bit disquieting, nonetheless.

Apparently what was heretofore known to Matt Cain and his agent and possibly a few other people was that the Giants last original extension offer to Cainer included a 3'rd year, 2013, at $16 M. The Giants pulled it off the table at the last minute and signed him to a 2 year extension. Now Baggs is reporting, without naming his sources, that the reason for the Giants change of heart was an X-ray or scan of some sort that showed "loose bodies" in his elbow. Now, I'd be willing to bet that somewhere around 80% of all pitchers in the major leagues have "loose bodies" of some sort in their throwing elbow, so that news, by itself, is not exactly earthshaking. What's a bit disconcerting is that the Giants were apparently concerned enough about it to yank an already agreed to year on a contract. What's also a bit disconcerting is that this was apparently news to Cain's agent who learned of it when he was asked to comment, saying he wondered why the offer was changed at the last minute. Couple that with the "twinge" Cainer felt in spring training last year, and you start to wonder how solid the Giants commitment to extending Cain really is. You also have to wonder who released this information to Baggs and what their motivation for doing so was. Cain, himself, did not respond to requests for comment vis Twitter. Twitter? Oh man, how times have changed!

Now, Andy Baggerly has every right and duty to report information he gathers as a beat reporter for the Giants. He seems like a guy who would hold himself to a high standard of reliability in terms of what sources he uses to gather and verify his information. In this case, the news has the potential to impact both Cain and the Giants, mostly in negative ways, so I hope Baggs did his due diligence on this one. For starters, the breach in confidentiality and the apparent withholding of information from the player has the potential to inject some negative feelings into the negotiations. At least initially, Cain's agent insists that they are looking to the future and will not let the past influence that, much easier to say than do. The information also potentially depresses Cain's value on the open market as well as depressing his trade value should the Giants end up deciding they can't get him re-signed. It's a 2 edged sword if not more.

There is a lot of hand wringing currently going on around the internet about the Giants "window of opportunity", a term that has almost begun to take on a life of it's own as it has morphed from a theoretical possibility to a metaphysical certainty, an internet meme if you will. The thinking goes that the Giants have this great pitching staff that will only stay together for a limited time, therefore they need to throw payroll constraints to the wind in order to bring in star offensive players to win while this "window" remains open. Much of that angst seems to be centered around the idea that Cain and Timmy are becoming so disgusted with the lack of run support they will bolt for free agency no matter how much the Giants offer. Stories like this tend to add fuel to that fire.

There certainly is something to be said for the "window of opportunity" theory. Billy Beane has been trying to find that window now for at least 10 years and keeps putting if off into the future. Sports history in general and Major League Baseball in particular is filled with dynasties that rise and fall, and many more others that never come to fruition. I have maintained that the Giants are not facing this type of "window". Their talent core is young, they have a strong farm system, they have a strong scouting department with excellent drafting strategy. Their skills at talent acquisition remain strong.

While it is much easier to envision an era of Giants dominance with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum locked up in long term contracts, It is by no means essential to the process. Big dollar, long term contracts can actually be a hinderence to sustained organizatonal success. Long term contracts given to homegrown players can go just as bad as the same contracts given to free agents from outside the organization. Right now, the Giants have a core of 5 young, homegrown players who look likely to command long term contracts that reach into 9 figures: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey. Yes, they are staggered a bit, but if you are talking contracts of 5 years or longer, there will come a time when they all overlap. Maybe the Yankees can afford 5 simultaneous $20 M/year contracts, but it's hard to imagine other teams being able to sustain that. Then there is the factor that if even one or 2 of those player get injured or have a steep dropoff in performance, the team becomes stuck in a losing situation with no way to re-allocate resources.

At some point, the Giants will likely not be able to keep all 5 of their current young core. That's where things get a bit delicate and you have to wonder if Sabean is savvy enough to play his cards right. For now, he is giving every indication he is all in on extending Cain and Timmy. He'll worry about the other 3 when their time comes. He's publicly identified keeping the pitching intact as his top priority. He has conserved his resources this offseason specifically to make sure that he can use them to take care of his pitchers. Now comes the negotiations. Whether this is information Baggs stumbled on or if somebody leaked it hoping to influence those negotiations, we may never know. It's hard to see it as a positive for any of the parties involved and does not appear to make it more likely that Cainer will agree to an extension.

At any point where it becomes an existential certainty that any of the core players are going end up as free agents, the most residual value the Giants can get comes from trading them for young talent that is just entering or about to enter the major league level. That is how you avoid "windows of opportunity" and sustain success in baseball. Of course, that has to be balanced against the chances of winning it all in the present with the almost inevitable risk of losing the players to nothing more than a couple of draft picks.

Buckle your seatbelts folks, it we could be in for some turbulence ahead.

Blast From the Past: Is Timmy A Latter Day Juan Marichal?

2011-12-09T17:21:00.000-08:00

Throughout the history of their great franchise, the Giants have been blessed by several Hall of Fame caliber pitchers. Christy Mathewson, Carl Hubbell, Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry come to mind. I had the distinct pleasure of witnessing the Marichal/Perry era. While Mathewson is probably the dean of the list, I have always considered Juan Marichal to be the gold standard against whom subsequent Giants pitchers are judged. I've waited a long time for the Next Juan Marichal. I had long ago resigned myself to the reality that there will never be another Juan Marichal, and I still believe that. Baseball has changed enough that the things he did in his era will never be done again. Still, what we are currently witnessing from Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain is starting to rival Marichal/Perry. The addition of a World Series Championship doesn't hurt the current guys' case at all.

Fangraphs recently had a brief post of some comments Juan Marichal made about his contemporary, Luis Tiant. Just seeing the name Juan Marichal in print still gives me a thrill and a whole lot of memories came flooding back. About the same time, the guy at Bleacher Report ran a comp of Juan and Timmy that got me thinking that we may be witnessing something pretty special right now too. Something my daughters will look back on and say, "I wonder if there will ever be another Tim Lincecum?"

Juan Marichal was small for a pitcher at 6'0, 185 lbs. He had a distinctive deliivery in which he kicked his front foot almost straight up over his head while holding the ball back behind his right knee. I've always believed it was more for show than anything else, but it seemed to distract the hitters a bit and help him hide the ball. It sure was exciting to see, though. He arrived on the scene in 1960 with a flourish by pitching a complete game 1 hit shutout in his major league debut. He went 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 11 games that year. He went 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA in 1961 and 18-11 with a 3.36 ERA in 1962, the year the Giants went to the World Series.

1963 was the start of a remarkable run that rivals the best peaks in the history of the game. Over the next 10 seasons through 1971, he won 204 games, pitched 199 complete games with 43 shutouts. I grew up listening to games on the radio. Marichal's games just had a different tempo to them. Almost every batter had a quick 0-2 or 1-2 count. Juan was not a big strikeout pitcher but he used the pitcher's counts to his advantage forcing the batter to hit his pitch for weak contact. His career BABIP was .261. Despite the exaggerated motions in his delivery, he had legendary pinpoint control of all of his pitches. Over the course of his 16 year career, he averaged 1.82 BB/9.

Juan threw a variety of pitches including a fastball, curve, slider, changeup. His ace-in-the-hole pitch though was a screwball that allowed him to be extremely effective against lefthanded batters. What was unique about Juan was that he could throw all of his pitches from a variety of release points all starting with the signature leg kick.

Marichal's career mirrored his team during his amazing 10 year peak run in that over it's course, he might have been the best pitcher in the game, but in any give year it seemed like there was always one guy who was better. From 1963-1966 it was Sandy Koufax and later on it was Bob Gibson and then Tom Seaver. Juan never won a Cy Young Award. His career was marred by the Roseboro incident which may have contributed to his failure to win a Cy Young and delayed his induction into the Hall of Fame.

Tim Lincecum is even smaller than Juan Marichal, listed at 5'11", 163 lbs. His delivery, while different than Juan's is also distinctive and definitely contributes to his velocity. Like Juan, Tim throws a variety of pitches but has tended to rotate favorites rather than use his full arsenal at any given time. Timmy has added the long flying hair that adds to the flair of his already distinctive delivery. In addition to being a true ace pitcher, he's showman much like Juan.

Tim's major league debut was not nearly as sensational as Juan's as he got cuffed around by the Phillies and ended up with a 7-5 record with a 4.00 ERA in 2007. His sophomore campaign in 2008 rivaled any season any Giants pitcher has ever put up, 18-5, 2.62, 227 IP, 84 BB, 265 K's. That effort won him the Cy Young award in just his first complete season! He followed that up with an even more dominant effort, 15-7, 2.48, 225.1 IP, 68 BB, 261 K's. He cut his walks down while maintaining his K's and lowered his ERA. That effort won him a somewhat controversial Cy Young that was based more on sabermetric analysis than the more traditional W-L record. Timmy was less dominant in 2010, as he struggled with his command and a loss of velocity but still went 16-10 and won a 3'rd straight strikeout title. He capped the season off by going head-to-head with some of the best pitchers and lineups in baseball in the postseason and led the Giants to the only World Series title since they moved to San Francisco. Timmy seemed to return to form in 2011 with his 3'rd sub-3 ERA in 4 seasons but was hampered by a lack of run support for a 13-14 record.

Timmy and Juan are difficult to compare given the different eras they pitched in, but from an "eyeball" look at the stats, Timmy's last 4 seasons are very comparable to the first 4 years of Juan's 10 year peak run, maybe even better! The Cy Young's are voted awards, and the Championship was a team effort, but you can't deny those are things Juan never accomplished. It remains to be seen if Timmy can maintain his dominance for another 6 years. If he does, he may well surpass Juan in my estimation as the greatest San Francisco Giants pitcher of all time.

For those of you who are begging for the Giants to accede to Timmy's demands for an 8 year contract, consider that if he were to maintain his dominance for the duration of the contract, his peak run would last 2 years longer than the reigning greatest pitcher in San Francisco Giants history. Here are some stats that might also give you pause:

K/9 starting 2009: 10.42, 9.79, 9.12.

BB/9 starting 2009: 2.72, 3.22, 3.57.

Incremental changes, to be sure, but a 3 year progression in one direction has to be noticed. 8 years, as we have learned with Barry Zito is a long, long time.

Hot Stove Update: Angels Jump Out of the Weeds to Grab Pujols

2011-12-08T20:29:00.001-08:00

You had to figure that the Angels were lying in the weeds for Albert Pujols. There's always a team out there that surprises everybody with a massive free agent signing. More often than not, it's the Angels. What is somewhat shocking, if you believe the stories, is how fast it all went down after over a year of dancing around with the Cardinals and a month of the Marlins throwing dust in the air. Apparently the Angels made just one offer....yesterday! Even they expected Pujols and his agent to ruminate on the offer a few days and get back to them. Instead, they got a phone call this morning saying Pujols had ACCEPTED THE OFFER! Bam! Done deal!

It seems Pujols had come to the feeling that the Cardinals organization was taking him for granted. Maybe they were a bit too quick and too enthusiastic about re-signing Matt Holiday. Maybe their offers lacked an air of sincerity. As for the Marlins, it was pretty easy to see through what THEY are all about when they were unwilling to include a no-trade clause in the contract. I mean, you don't sign Albert Pujols to a 10 year contract unless you intend that he's going to retire with your uniform on his back, and clearly that is not what the Marlins had in mind.

It's also pretty easy to see what Arte Moreno is doing here. His game plan is to put as much of his brand on the LA market as he can before the Dodgers get a new owner and start signing these kinds of contracts right and left. I mean, do you have any doubt that if Magic Johnson has anything to say about it, the Dodgers will be building their team around the superstar model? It's now pretty clear why Tony Reagins got canned in Anaheim. It's not because Mike Scioscia didn't like him. It's not because he made a horrible trade for Vernon Wells. It's not even because he traded away Mike Napoli. It's because he failed to sign Adrian Beltre! I remember reading somewhere that Arte Moreno was annoyed that Beltre was allowed to slip away to the Rangers after a long, public courtship by the Angels. It's pretty clear now that Moreno had Pujols in his sights and simply didn't trust Reagins to get the job done.

What's hard to see is how Jerry DiPoto just woke up yesterday morning and said to himself, "now what should I do with myself today? Hey, I know! I think I'll make Albert Pujols an offer." The Angels had to have had Pujols in their sites all along. Maybe even for more than a year! This is not the first time the Angels have pulled a deal like this. They had to have had a game plan and been monitoring the situation very closely. In the end, I'm betting it was the simple no muss, no fuss sincerity of the offer that appealed to Albert Pujols: 10 years, $250 M, no trade clause, simple, nice round numbers, elegant, with not a hint of hesitation or insincerity.

As free agents go, Albert Pujols is a blue chip as they come. Right now, it's pretty hard to argue that he isn't worth every penny of $25 M/year. Even in an off year for him in 2011, he put up 5.1 WAR, which is worth right about $25 M. The problem is that Pujols is 32 years old come January, and that's if you are not a Pujols "birther". The contract is for 10 years. There might be someone out there who thinks Albert Pujols will still be putting up 5 WAR seasons at age 40, but I know I'm not one of them. To the sharp eyed observer, evidence of the decline is already there: BA's over the last 4 seasons- .357, .327, .312, .299. OBP's- .462, .443, .414, .366. SLG%- .653, .658, .596, .541. WAR- 9.0, 9.1, 7.5, 5.1. After 7 consecutive season in which his lowest WAR was 8.2, he has had 2 consecutive regressions. Gotta wonder, as he enter his mid-30's, if maybe he has already entered the downward phase of his career. This contract was destined to end badly based on length and age alone. If Pujols has already started the downhill slide, it could easily end up almost Zitonian in dreadfulness. Of course, that's not a problem for me since it's the Angels. On the other hand, bad contracts don't seem to be the hinderence to the Angels that they are to some teams.

Almost lost in the hubub of the Pujols signing, the Angels also snatched up CJ Wilson to a $77 M contract. Wilson is no better than the # 3 starter for the Angels, maybe #4, but signing him ripped the heart out of the hated Rangers rotation, and I'm sure that was a motivating factor too. By acquiring Joe Nathan, the Rangers freed up Neftali Feliz to move to the rotation. I'm not convinced that Feliz will thrive in that role. Their rotation is now Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Feliz and a couple of stiffs. Maybe Martin Perez is almost ready, but you sure can't tell it from his stats. The problem for the Rangers is they have their own window of opportunity that may not stay open long and the cupboard for free agent pitchers is now officially bare.

I'll say it one more time: The Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!

Hot Stove Update: Giants Trade for Angel Pagan

2011-12-06T21:09:00.001-08:00

The Giants this evening traded Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez to the New York Mets for Angel Pagan. The trade shakes up the apple cart a bit as Pagan will almost certainly be the Giants starting CF with Melky Cabrera moving over to LF. The ripples keep on going from there as it almost certainly ends talk of Aubrey Huff playing much in LF, which means he will most likely be the starting first baseman and Brandon Belt will likely start the season in Fresno.

Angel Pagan and Andres Torres are very similar players. Both are fast, switch-hitters with some power and the ability to play CF. Both kicked around for awhile before having breakout seasons in 2010 and both had struggles with injury, chronic illness and regressed performance in 2011. We all know the Andres Torres story. As a reminder, here are his stats from the last 2 years and his career line:

2010 .268/.343/.479, 16 HR, 26 SB, 6.8 WAR.
2011 .221/.312/.330, 4 HR, 19 SB, 2.1 WAR.
Career .244/318/.403.

For comparison, here's Pagan's comparable numbers:

2010 .290/.340/.425, 11 HR, 37 SB, 5.5 WAR.
2011 .262/322/.372, 7 HR, 32 SB, 0.9 WAR.
Career .279/.331/.418.

A few comments here:

1. Torres at his best may have more power. Pagan at his best appears to have a higher BA and more SB's. Pagan actually had a much better offensive season than Torres in 2011.

2. Pagan's defense appears to have suffered in 2011 which accounts entirely for him producing a lower WAR than Torres. Pagan's defensive ratings were always good prior to 2011. He uncharacteristically made 10 errors, while his range numbers were not as bad.

3. Both players battled injuries in 2011. Torres has a chronic illness in ADD while Pagan reportedly has a history of "colitis" that flared up last year. There are many types of "colitis", but if he has Chronic Ulcerative Colitis, that can be a real SOB. The Giants signed a minor league FA a few years ago, Adam Pettyjohn or something like that who almost died from the disease at one point.

4. Torres will turn 34 yo on January 26 while Pagan turns 31 on July 2.

Both players have obvious, similar talents, similar flaws and similar career trajectories. If you told me that one of them will repeat their 2010 season, and forced me to put a bet on which one, I'd pick Pagan without much hesitation. To me, WAR is just a bit too dependent on the whims of UZR. Pagan's offense clearly was less of a dropoff than Torres and his career numbers are significantly better too. I realize the importance of defense, but I believe Pagan's D is more likely to bounce back than Torres' bat.

Right or wrong, Torres was clearly not in the Giants plans for 2012. He was likely to be not tendered a contract at the arbitration deadline. Pagan gives the Giants a likely starting CF and leadoff hitter, a role that Melky Cabrera probably could have handled, but not nearly as well. Clearly, the Giants like Pagan enough better than Torres to spend the extra money he is projected to get in arbitration over Torres. Melky can now move to LF and down in the order with Pagan handling the CF/leadoff duties.

Almost lost in the discussion is the fact that Ramon Ramirez was probably actually the principle piece in the Mets end of the trade with Torres being the throw in. Ramirez was acquired mid-season in 2010 and played a key role in the Giant stretch run to the World Series, although he was less successful in the postseason. He was a solid contributor again last year, although not spectacular. The Giants were apparently not excited about paying him arbitration leveraged salary and basically took the money they anticipated Torres and Ramirez would cost and exchange it for Pagan. Candidates to replace Ramirez in the bullpen would include Dan Runzler, giving the Giants 3 LHP's in the pen, Dan Otero, Hector Correa or possibly a minor league FA pickup or even a Rule 5 draftee. Guillermo Mota seems to be more likely to come back at this point.

Overall, it's a decent trade that may solve both the CF and leadoff hitter problem. The big downside to me is it makes Brandon Belt more likely to start the season in Fresno which could be a pretty big opportunity cost, although Belt is not a lock to play up to his intriguing projections and a little more salt in Fresno won't hurt him.

Baggs seems to think the Giants are pretty far along on another trade of Jeff Keppinger to an AL team for an unknown return player. Stay tuned.

Hot Tip: Giants, Reds, Cardinals 1958-1968

2011-12-06T06:34:00.001-08:00

For those of you who remember the early Giants teams after the move to SF and who might want to take a trip down memory lane, The Hardball Times has started a series looking at 3 of the more successful teams from that era and all the trades they made with each other and with other teams. One factoid I guess I was aware of but had never really thought about: Willie Mays was 27 years old in 1958 the Giants first year in SF! One more I wasn't aware of: The Giants traded Ernie Broglio to St. Louis. He was the guy who the Cards later flipped to the Cubs for Lou Brock!

Anyway, The Hardball Times is linked over on Fangraphs for those of you who are interested. Great stuff!

Hot Stove Update: Jose Reyes to the Marlins

2011-12-05T06:11:00.000-08:00

As Giants fans are all too aware, the Florida Marlins have had a boom and bust business model ever since they became a franchise. They splurge on high priced free agents, put together a run to a championship followed by the inevitable fire sale and years of last place finishes. It looks like they are up to their old tricks again.

Last night it was widely reported that the Marlins have agreed to terms Jose Reyes on a 6 year/$106 M deal. This is actually a very reasonable deal for a player of Reyes caliber. Compared to Jayson Werth's contract signed with the Nationals last year, it's an absolute steal. Reyes has been a consistent 6 WAR player when fully healthy. He missed almost all of one season to injury out of the last 6 and still managed to put up a 0.8 WAR in just 36 games. Hampered by injuries in 2010, he still put up a 3 WAR season. Current market value/WAR right now is right around $5M, so you can see that short of an catastrophic injury that takes him out for a full season, the value is more than there. I believe that of the "big 3" free agents from this year, Reyes has the best chance of delivering full value over the course of his contract.

The signing sets up some drama for the Marlins. Their biggest star, Hanley Ramirez has not been a happy camper and this will force him off shortstop. Early indications are Hanley will play 3B and has agreed to the move, but stay tuned. Assuming everything falls into place, the Marlins now have one of the more dynamic lineups in the game anchored by Reyes and Ramirez and also including Mike Stanton, one of the best young power hitters in the game as well as Logan Morrison, assuming he can keep his mouth and Twitter from getting him in trouble with the owner. Gaby Sanchez is no slouch at 1B either. The Marlins still have issues with their pitching, but seem to be intent on addressing that with the rumored signing of Heath Bell. They probably need to add a starter or two if they are going to make a serious run in 2012. While there are still pieces that need to fit together, the basic value the Marlins get from Reyes is solid.

Losing Reyes has to be a big blow to Mets fans. How can a team based in New York with a state of the art stadium not hang onto a lynchpin like Reyes. Shortstop is not like first base or any other position. You can't just go out and find a cheaper replacement that will come close to Reyes' production. The Mets now have to join the scrum fighting over the dregs of the shortstop bargain bin or rush Jordany Valdespin to the majors before he is really ready.

Reyes would have been a perfect fit for the Giants too. Much as I like Brandon Crawford, he will never be anywhere near Jose Reyes' production level, nor is it likely any of the Giants current SS prospects will either. Signing Reyes, would have not just takne care of the position for years to come, but given them a huge advantage at the position taking pressure off other positions for offensive production.

Much as I think Reyes would have been a bargain, I understand the Giants are in a position where they will have to spend similar money,and more to keep their excellent core of young talent intact, a goal I certainly support. Jose Reyes and the Giants and Mets shortstop situations do point up the need for organizations to be constantly searching for young shortstop talent, not just to find that one big star, but to keep a flow of talent coming as hedge to what just happened to the Mets.

Fantasy Focus: Hanley Ramirez

2011-12-03T21:47:00.000-08:00

There is an article up on Fake Teams entitled Now Is the Time to Buy on Hanley Ramirez. The thesis of the article is basically that Hanley's poor season was due to a low BABIP(Batting Average on Balls In Play) and his low BABIP was due to bad luck, therefore he is lkely to bounce back to his normal awesome self next season. Since his Average Draft Position has dropped considerably from his previous #1 or #2 overall, he is now undervalued and should be drafted aggressively.

This thesis is a classic example of how a superficial understanding of BABIP can lead to misleading and even inaccurate conclusions. First of all, Hanley Ramirez only had 385 Plate Appearances last season, so he obviously had more problems than just a low BABIP, but let's just assume that the injury was an isolated incident that he will be fully recovered from by the start of next season. Is it safe to assume that his low BABIP was due entirely to bad luck and the Baseball Gods will smile on him once again in 2012? Let's take a closer look at some statistics that are readily available which might shed some light on the subject:

Here are Hanley's BABIP's starting in 2006: .343, .353, .329, .379, .327, .275! Aha! Luck, you say! Here's a couple more to consider:

1. GB/FB ratios from 2006: 0.81, 0.67, 0.85, 0.64, 1.01!, 1.08!

2. Line Drive % from 2006: 19%, 21%, 19%, 22%, 20%, 16%!

First, the significant jump in GB% reduces opportunities for HR's and XBH's. This jump occured in 2010. Second, his LD% took a dive in 2011 taking away opportunity for both singles and XBH's. So, there is a reason besides luck for Hanley's poor BABIP afterall: HE DIDN'T HIT THE BALL AS HARD!

There may be reasons why he didn't hit the ball as hard:

1. The most obvious reason for him not hitting the ball as hard is injury. If you are injured, you may not be able to swing as hard, or elevate sinking pitches as well, or the swing may be altered in some other way.

2. Pitchers may have figured out something about him and are pitching him differently. This hypothesis could be studied through PitchFx, but would be laborious and time consuming.

3. Off field issues such as deconditioning of substance use. As far was I know, Hanley hasn't failed any drug tests. He has definitely had attitude issues that were evident on the field.

4. Development of a mechanical flaw in the swing.

Hanley Ramirez definitely may bounce back next season. He is obviously a great athlete who should be entering the prime of his career. If his injury is fully healed, if the new stadium and some new teammates improve his mood and attitude, if he readjusts to any adjustments opposing pitchers may have made, yeah, he's a great candidate for a bounceback season. Make no mistake, though. Hanley Ramirez' poor season in 2011 was most likely NOT due to bad luck, well, unless you consider injuries bad luck.

Attributing changes in BABIP to luck as the first option, stops the mind from asking further questions and digging for reasons behind the reasons. If a player experiences a significant change in BABIP over a full season, a search for underlying causes should be undertaken and the change in BABIP should be attributed to luck only if that search fails to turn up likely explanations.

Hot Stove Update: Projecting the Giants

2011-12-03T15:43:00.000-08:00

When the Hot Stove is burning low and the winter chill starts to creep into the room, sometimes there isn't anything for a poor baseball fan to do than just fantasize about what their favorite players are going to do in the upcoming season. In this formerly blissful Field of Dreams, everybody hits .300(or if not, at least .280) and hits at least 20 HR's. In recent years, this reverie has been harshly interrupted by a phenomenon known as "projections". Projections are an attempt to use statistical analysis to inject some reality into the fantasies about what players will do in the upcoming season.

Some of these projection systems are quite simple, such as simply taking the player's average for the past 3 seasons and projecting that as their performance for next season. Primitive, but surprisingly accurate. Others are more sophisticated and take not only the player's recent performances, but also career trajectory and secondary stats into account. One of the more advanced projection metrics is one known by the acronym ZIPS. It was invented by a dude named Dan Szymborski, who publishes them at Baseball Think Factory and also on Fangraphs. ZIPS tends to be more conservative than some of the other systems out there. Szymborski recently completed his projections for the Giants. I thought it might be interesting to see what a possible Giants lineup might do statistically using ZIPS projections. I vaguely recall doing something like this last offseason and concluding that the Giants were a lock to repeat as World Series Champions, but hey, let's try it again!

CF Melky Cabrera .284/.330/.435, 36 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 15 SB.
2B Freddy Sanchez .273/.313/.373, 20 2B, 5 HR. (370 AB's).
3B Pablo Sandoval .299/.347/.497, 36 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR
C Buster Posey .287/.365/.452, 25 2B, 15 HR.
1B Aubrey Huff .261/.329/.422, 28 2B, 16 HR.
RF Nate Schierholtz .267/.316/.420, 21 2B, 8 HR, 6 SB(333 AB).
LF Brandon Belt .268/.365/.452, 28 2B, 5 3B, 17 HR, 12 SB.
SS Brandon Crawford .225/.291/.336, 19 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 6 SB.

Possible FA Signing:

Carlos Beltran .282/.363/.474, 26 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 7 SB.(397 AB).
Cody Ross .254/.317/.422, 27 2B, 16 HR. (472 AB).

Possible Reserves:

Mike Fontenot .245/.308/367, 16 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR. (278 AB)
Jeff Keppinger .278/.321/.372, 24 2B, 5 HR. (435 AB).
Chris Stewart .239/.309/.331, 14 2B, 3 HR. (272 AB).
Hector Sanchez .245/.288/.365, 26 2B, 9 HR. (479 AB).
Brett Pill .267/.298/.412, 35 2B, 16 HR. (600 AB).
Justin Christian .247/.298/.355, 24 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 25 SB. (462 AB).
Andres Torres .235/.311/.394, 24 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 16 SB. (383 AB).

Starting Pitchers:

Tim Lincecum 16-9, 2.92, 212.7 IP, 75 BB, 225 K.
Matt Cain 14-8, 3.04, 213 IP, 62 BB, 171 K.
Madison Bumgarner 13-10, 3.45, 198.3 IP, 48 BB, 164 K.
Ryan Vogelsong 8-10, 4.18, 153 IP, 60 BB, 119 K.
Barry Zito 7-8, 4.28, 124 IP, 52 BB, 92 K.

Eric Surkamp 7-7, 3.85, 142.7 IP, 59 BB, 116 K.

Relief Pitchers:

Brian Wilson 5-3, 3.02, 62.7 IP, 28 BB, 69 K.
Sergio Romo 4-1, 2.20, 49 IP, 11 BB, 62 K.
Santiago Casilla 3-2, 3.40, 53 IP, 26 BB, 48 K.
Ramon Ramirez 4-3, 3.32, 65 IP, 27 BB, 58 K.
Jeremy Affeldt 3-2, 3.52, 53.7 IP, 26 BB, 48 K.
Javier Lopez 3-3, 3.70, 48.7 IP, 22 BB, 33 K.
Guillermo Mota 2-2, 4.05, 60 IP, 24 BB, 51 K.

Dan Runzler 3-3, 3.80, 64 IP, 38 BB, 63 K.

Notes:

All projection systems rely heavily on regression to career and league averages. They do not predict breakouts or collapses very well. I wish they would either project the stats over a full season's worth of AB's or else try to be more realistic about how many AB's the players will get in reality.

Most of these systems really think Belt can hold his own and more through a full season of starting. That's a huge factor in how the Giants plan for the future. So much is riding on whether the Giants believe in him as much as the projection systems and whether he actually plays up to that.

Signing Beltran makes the lineup better, but only marginally so if the opportunity cost is Belt or even Aubrey Huff. Obviously the projection is skeptical about Beltran's ability to stay healthy. If he's only good for <400 AB's, then he would be a bad investment. A Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willingham might stay healthier, but the marginal benefit may be even less than with Beltran.

For the difference in price and the better versatility, Fonty looks like a better utility IF over Keppinger.

For the difference in price, Justin Christian looks like a better option than Andres Torres.

I would probably "eyeball" Vogey to be better and Zito to be worse than the projection. If Zito pitches that well, he will almost certainly pitch more innings. The system is very optimistic about Surkamp. Nice to know he might be a good fallback option if somebody gets hurt or if Zito is done.

If you believe the projection, the Giants should trade one of the either Lopez or Affeldt and go with Runzler as the second lefty reliever.

Just for interest's sake, here's some selected projections for prospects. Remember this is how the system thinks they would produce if they played at the MLB level this year:

Gary Brown .275/.335/.398, 30 2B, 11 3B, 8 HR, 36 SB. (621 AB).
Conor Gillaspie .261/.324/.376, 26 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR. (556 AB).
Francisco Peguero .274/.295/.375, 16 2B, 9 3B, 5 HR, 19 SB. (485 AB)
Tyler Graham .246/.293/.308, 16 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 39 SB. (426 AB).
Tommy Joseph .226/.266/.368, 30 2B, 17 HR. (598 AB).
Roger Kieschnick .226/.269/.367, 21 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR. (477 AB).
Ehire Adrianza .234/.295/.332, 28 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 15 SB. (509 AB)
Jarrett Parker .212/.300/.319, 24 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 16 SB. (589 AB).
Chris Dominguez .222/.257/.354, 30 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR. (630 AB).

Heath Hembree 1-1, 3.63, 52 IP, 32 BB, 58 K.
Dan Otero 3-3, 3.86, 49 IP, 12 BB, 36 K.
Hector Correa 4-5, 4.45, 62 IP, 29 BB, 47 K.

Scouting the Draft: Keon Barnum

2011-12-02T22:08:00.000-08:00

I've become fascinated with baseball scouting. The proliferation of high quality video cameras and access of these to the internet has enabled some of us who were previously only able to look at statistics and read other people's scouting reports to look at players from around the country, who we would never be able to see play in person, and form our own opinions about them. I started out by going to minor league games in my local area and making mental notes of players physical appearance and some of the good and bad things I thought I saw them do on the field. I then compared my own observations with published scouting reports. Over time, I've tried to remember some of these impressions and follow them to see if they hold true over time. It's been a learning experience. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong, but I feel I've gotten better at it with experience.

There's a great site I've recently discovered, MLB Draft Guide. I have it linked over on the left hand side of this blog. I've already learned a tremendous amount about the upcoming draft class from reading this site and a few early mock drafts around the internet. MLB Draft Guide's current player profile is of a kid named Keon Barnum from Florida. He's not listed in BA's Early Top 50 Draft Prospects, nor is he in Draft Site's current 2 round mock draft. Holy moly! If this kid is not a top 50 draft prospect, all I can say is this must be one heckuva deep draft! Perfect Game reportedly has him ranked #17. Their list requires a subscription though.

He's a B-L, T-L first baseman in the mold of Willie McCovey and Ryan Howard. He's 6'4", 225 lbs. Big boned and long limbed at the same time. He has a tremendously powerful swing that is simple, short to the ball. His follow through may be a bit long and exaggerated but that's all after contact with the ball. On top of the raw power, he's a patient hitter with enough speed to steal 10 bases. He's rangy at first base with an arm that throws 90 MPH. I know HS stats don't mean much, but here's his junior numbers just for fun: .491/.654/.964 with 6 HR, 10 SB in 55 AB. Part of the reason why his AB's are so low is he drew 26 BB!

Check out MLB Draft Guide and look up some of Keon Barnum's videos around the internet. There are some links in his MLB Draft Guide profile. He doesn't fit the profile of the type of player the Giants have drafted in the first round, but man, I love what I see in this kid, even as a first baseman. I would expect his stock to be pure helium or else some team is going to get a real steal in this draft!

What are your thoughts after scouting Keon Barnum by video?

Hot Stove Update: Giants Extend Contracts for Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy

2011-11-30T03:33:00.000-08:00

Pretty much every Giants oriented website has a comment on this item. It seems to be a much more controversial issue than it should be. I almost let is pass here as a formality, but since there isn't really anything else to write about, I decided to go ahead and put in my 2 cents. You've heard most of this from me in the past, and many times over, but it apparently bears repeating.

Brian Sabean is, by far, the most successful GM the Giants have had since the immortal John McGraw. Some of you may be too young to remember, but the Giants had losing seasons 5 of the 6 years before Sabes became the GM, 3 of those losing seasons came after Barry Bonds joined the team. Since he became GM, the Giants have had 11 winning seasons out of 15. They have made 5 postseason appearances and been eliminated on the last day of the season 2 more times. They have won 2 NL Pennants and the only World Series Championship since they moved to San Francisco. Brian Sabean's winning percentage as GM is in the top 10 of all GM's in MLB since 1950.

As for the current state of the team, the Giants have one of the better young homegrown cores in the game with more young players in the pipeline. They have a strong scouting and drafting team. Combined with a strong fanbase, a solid ownership group and the best stadium in baseball, they are as well situated for the future as any team in baseball.

Brian Sabean is not a perfect GM. He has made mistakes. Those of you who may be hankering after someone else to take the reins of the team need to consider the potential alternatives. It is much more likely that the next Giants GM will be less successful than Brian Sabean than more. Extending his contract was the right thing to do!

Bruce Bochy has a big head and sounds a lot like Eeyore when he talks. He also has a tendency to prefer veterans to rookies, but this trait is grossly overemphasized by his critics. Like all managers, he has made blunders in game management that tend to stick in people's minds. Between the big head, the Eeyore voice and the memorable blunders, a lot of people think he is not a smart baseball manager.

Bochy's biggest strength might be in maintaining a positive clubhouse, something that should never be underestimated. One has to look no farther than this year's Boston Red Sox debacle to see what a bad clubhouse can do to a team. He has also consistently built strong pitching staffs, particularly bullpens. That may be mostly due to the personnel he has to work with, but I would point to his immediate predecessor as a prime example of how a manager can destroy a bullpen if he doesn't manage it properly.

Bochy's in-game management is underrated, IMO. His work down the stretch and in the 2010 postseason was nothing short of remarkable. Yeah, some of that might have been luck, but he made a lot of very good, even inspired decisions in that run. Ironically, I think his work in 2011 might have been even better considering the cards he was dealt. I read somewhere recently that the Giants Pythagorean record in 2011 was 80-82. If true, you could make a case that Bochy won 6 games for them with his managing. As OGC has pointed out, his record in 1 run games is nothing short of remarkable.

Some critics point to Bochy's lack of aggressiveness with "small ball" and "situational hitting". In reality, his tendency to eschew strategies like sacrifice bunting, steals, pitch outs and and hit and runs is sabermetrically sound. Also in reality, the Giants have been at least average in advancing runners over the last few seasons. It's getting runners on base in the first place that's the problem. Some of the lack of OBP may be Bochy's fault, but is more likely due to the players he has to work with.

Bochy's heaviest criticism seems to come from those who abhor his tendency to play veterans at the expense of rookies. There have certainly been instances where this was the case. On the other hand, the Giants have a great young core of homegrown talent that broke in under Bochy's management, so I'm not convinced that he's as bad as the CW says he is in this regard. Tony LaRussa is a manager who will almost certainly be in the Hall of Fame. Bruce Bochy absolutely loves young players when compared with Tony LaRussa's attitude toward them!

Like Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy's record of taking teams to the postseason is underrated. His record with the Padres was the best that team has had. Now he's won the only World Series the San Francisco Giants have ever won. He may be 1 more World Series win away from serious Hall of Fame consideration.

Bruce Bochy is a very good, if not great manager. Extending his contract was the right thing for the Giants to do.

Questions and Answers

2011-11-27T15:39:00.000-08:00

I'm temporarily out of things to write about. The Hot Stove is burning so slowly, it's almost extinguished! You all seem to have a lot of pent up questions. Maybe it's time for another Question and Answer post. Go ahead and ask anything baseball related and I'll try my best to answer. You all can chime in with your answers too. We can make it a conversation.

Hot Tips and Early Draft Thoughts

2011-11-25T16:50:00.000-08:00

I'd like to call your attention to a couple of new links over on the left hand side of the site: 1. College Baseball Daily has updates almost daily, as the name implies. Right now they are running down their top 100 college players for 2012. 2. MLB Draft Guide is a very ambitious MLB draft site that gives almost daily profiles of prospects eligible for the 2012 draft.

I was cruising around the the draft sites looking for early 2012 mock drafts. I thought it might be fun to look as some of the names being projected for the Giants at #20 overall. Since the new CBA was announced, it seems much less likely that the Giants will be signing any FA's that cost draft picks, so I'm assuming they will still have #20 when draft day rolls around.

2012 looks to be not as strong as 2011, especially at the top. It seems to be strong for both college and HS shortstops, prep arms and power hitters. Not so strong for college pitching and college hitters other than shortstops. Here are some names I've seen in mock drafts at #20:

My MLB Draft; Baseball America: Carlos Correa, HS SS. 6'3", 190 lbs. Some draft sites are ranking this kid the #1 shortstop in the draft in a pretty strong draft for shortstops. His size makes some wonder whether he will stick at the position, but he may hit well enough that it doesn't matter. He's from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. We know the Giants have a scout down there because they drafted 4 kids from there in 2011! This is one guy who might make me think they should take him as the BPA rather than a pitcher.

Baseball Draft Report: Ryne Stanek, Arkansas RHP(Draft Eligible Soph). 6'4", 180 lbs. 3'rd round pick by the Mariners out of HS in 2010. His coach says he has a "tremendous fastball" and "three really good pitches." Made 12 starts as a true freshman going 4-1, 3.94, 64 IP, 26 BB's, 41 K's. I'm not wild about the ratios and I doubt the Giants take a chance on a draft eligible soph with the new harder slot rules.

TTF Baseball: Brian Johnson, Florida, LHP. Polished college lefty who keeps the ball on the ground and has great control. Not a typical Giants first round pick.

Draft Site: Rio Ruiz, HS 3B. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Two sport star out of SoCal also a football QB. Committed to USC. There are a few videos out there. His swing looks quite long to my eye, but a nice looking athlete with power potential. I expect the Giants to stay away from two-sport guys in this draft as they always have.

Rant Sports: Travis Jankwoski, Stony Brook, OF. 6'3", 190 lbs. B-L, T-R. Put up a .355/.419/.457 with 30/34 SB's. Not a bad guess given the type of player the Giants have taken in the last 2 first rounds. We know they scout the Northeast. In addition, Jankowski hit .326 with 7 triples in the Cape Cod League which is pretty sensational for that league. The Giants historically put a huge amount of stock in the Cape Cod League.

MLB Bonus Baby: Jake Barrett, Arizona State, RHP. 6'3", 220 lbs. Big hard-throwing RHP. 7-4, 4.14, 76 IP, 21 BB, 72 K's. Given the Giants organizational needs at pitcher, this could be a very nice pick to help fill that gap. We know they favor hard throwers, so I would put more stock in a guy like Barrett than Brian Johnson.

Draft boards change dramatically over time, so the take home point here is not the specific players listed but a general idea of what type of players may be available to the Giants at #20. From this list, I am encouraged that they will be able to draft a solid MLB prospect at this slot.

San Jose A's?

2011-11-24T16:06:00.000-08:00

I am on record multiple times saying the Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball. Some of that is based on their core of young major league level players, some on their farm system, some on their revitalized scouting/drafting operation. A lot of it, though, is based on their ownership, stadium and fanbase situation. This offseason has raised a few puffy storm clouds on the horizon. Nothing to run for cover over, mind you, but some things to check in on once in awhile to make sure a full blown tornado isn't forming.

First came the replacement of Bill Neukom as the managing partner. While I seriously doubt this will have a major impact on the future of the team, it is a bit unsettling that the move came so soon after he took over from Peter Magowan and right no the heels of the first World Series title since the franchise moved to San Francisco. While I don't believe Neukom is personally responsible for the Championship, he did accomplish some things in his short tenure that seemed to resonate with a lot of fans, including me. He wrote a franchise manual codifying some of the good things the organization was already doing. He seemed to want to emphasize scouting, drafting and player development as the way to build and maintain the team. I think Baer and the reorganized ownership group will continue to do many of those things, but yeah, it's a bit unsettling and something to be aware of.

Now comes word that Bud Selig is going to meet with the Giants ownership about a proposal to move the A's franchise to a yet-to-be-built stadium in downtown San Jose, in the middle of an area the Giants officially claim as their territory. Again, this may be no more than a tempest in a teapot, with no relevance at all for the casual fan, or even the obsessed fan, but it's worth taking a look at. I don't claim to be much knowledgeable about this stuff. My comments and thoughts will come more from the heart than the brain here. For a more rational businesslike discussion I recommend ObsessiveGiantsCompulsive's site.

I was only 2 years old When the Giants Came To Town. I didn't become aware of baseball or the Giants until I was almost 10 years old in 1966. They were a wonderful team back then. They had gone to the World Series in 1962. They had several Hall of Fame caliber players led by the incomparable Willie Mays. They were in contention every year, although frustratingly always seemed to finish in second place to someother team that was temporarily better. Then, the A's rolled into town with their carpetbags in tow. The carpetbagging aura wasn't helped by them having a huckstering medicine show operator of an owner who brought all kinds of showy gimmicks and promotions along with the A's.

Some of my friends jumped on the bandwagon almost immediately. I remember being annoyed by that. I wasn't looking for a new team to root for. The one I already had was just fine, thank you. The A's had a bunch of young players with goofy nicknames like Blue Moon, Catfish and Jumbo Jim. The Giants had Willie Mays and Willie McCovey. There was no comparison in my mind. I remember having a vague feeling that these interlopers were not good for my Giants, but I didn't really understand why.

Over the next decade, that wonderful Giants team gradually fell apart. The Hall of Famers performances faded as they grew older. Some were traded away. Attendance at Giants games faded along with the Hall of Famers. Some days you could listen to the games on the radio and hear the echo of the announcers in Candlestick Park. The players grew grumpy and complained endlessly about the terrible conditions they had to play in. My family moved out of the area. It didn't help that the upstart A's and their huckstering owner reeled off a string of championships that had eluded my Giants for so long. The Niners and Raiders seemingly had the same luck as the Giants in the football playoffs losing heartbreaker after heartbreaker. There just seemed to be a force in the world that had decided any team I rooted for was doomed not just to failure, but frustrating, heartbreaking failure. I blamed the A's and Charlie Finley. They had come in and stolen the Giants fanbase through devious, snake oily means which had resulted in the Giants being unable to afford any good players.

Of course, there was a whole lot more to it than that. The Giants Hall of Fame core was allowed to age together with nothing but Bobby Bonds to continue the glory, a burden he was ultimately unable to bear. Horace Stoneham was an aging, old school, alcoholic owner who was ill-equipped to deal with the rapidly changing financial landscape of Major League Baseball. Good young players were traded for wretched surly veterans. Candlestick Park remained a joke of a ballpark for far too long. Ironically, Charlie Finley ultimately became a casualty of the free agent era too, but not before he won a few championships to wave in the Giants collective faces for decades to come. Also ironically, the Giants high water mark of the post-Stonham era came when they were completely outclassed by the A's in a World Series that was interrupted by an earthquake that nearly destroyed the ol' 'Stick.

All that changed in 2000 when the Giants finally built a gorgeous new ballpark of their own. Pac Bell Park quickly became the envy of the baseball world. Suddenly, the Giants were the ones you couldn't get a ticket for. The A's soon became the forgotten stepchildren of Bay Area Baseball. Pac Bell Park became a national destination and the Giants were THE team to root for. Of course, the near misses, frustrations and disappointment on the field continued to plague them, but somehow it didn't seem as bad because the A's and even better, the Dodgers, were even more frustrated. Now it was the A's who were drawing 800 fans to a game. Yeah, there was Moneyball and Billy Beane, but you know, those pathetic A's fans had to have something to take solace in. The Giants owned the Bay Area. That ownership reached a crescendo with the long awaited and hoped for, and now unexpected Championship of 2010. The future was so bright, we all had to wear shades, well, except a few wretched naysayers who continued to rail against Giants management from various outposts on the internet.

Now looms the dark shadow of Bud Selig, seemingly coming to snatch away what should have belonged to the Giants and their fans all along, territory, precious territory, and along with it money, life-giving money to pay, not just the players, but the General Manager, the Scouting Director, the scouts themselves and the minor league coaches too. Somehow those of feelings of annoyance and foreboding I had as a kid as I watched the interloper A's come clattering into town and steal the glory from my team, are finding their way to the surface once again. What does this mean for my belief in the future of Giants Baseball? How much of the fanbase will is siphon away. What effect will it have on payroll? TV contracts, and ultimately performance on the field? Was 2010 both the first and last of the Giants Championships? Will the A's once again carpetbag their way to usurping the Giants dominance in Bay Area Baseball?

Hopefully these are all just suppressed anxieties from my younger days irrationally bubbling into my consciousness. The Giants still play in the Destination City. Nobody in their right mind with a choice would prefer to see a game from downtown San Jose over the gorgeousness of AT&T Park, right? No multibillion dollar company is going to want to wine and dine its clients in San Jose when they could be in San Francisco, right? All those potential fans in the East Bay will find it easier to make the trip across the bay by BART or the Bay Bridge than schlep all the way down to San Jose, right? All the TV stations that carry the games and news of the games will still be based in San Francisco, right? Brian Sabean will still be a better GM than Billy Beane, and Larry Baer, et al will still be better owners than Lew Wolff, right?

How do you feel about the A's possibly moving to San Jose?

New Collective Bargaining Agreement

2011-11-22T22:13:00.000-08:00

I thought I would add my voice to the cacophony of uninformed opinions out there about the new CBA with emphasis on what, if any, impact it may have on the Giants. Some of this stuff is way too complicated for me to completely understand. If you want a technical discussion of the fine points there are probably much better discussions out there. I'll just share my thoughts based on what I can figure out.

Free Agent Compensation: Starting after next season, there will be no type A or Type B FA's. Teams will have a 5 day window to tender a contract to their FA's. If the offer is for at least the average of the top 125 salaries in the game for one year, then that team can get compensation in the form of a supplemental round draft pick. The signing team will also lose a draft pick but it will not go to the old team. The player has 7 days to accept or reject the offer. Only the top 10 draft picks are protected instead of the top 15.

Comment: One thing I like about this is it takes arbitration out of the picture for FA's. The compensation will not be as high a draft pick, and it will likely only involve players who were previously Type A's, but it does make it easier for teams to get compensated because there is less risk in offering a contract. It may have a somewhat chilling effect on teams willingness to sign FA's who are borderline as teams will still lose draft picks and possibly higher value draft picks. Very smart move by the owners here. I'm surprised the players allowed arbitration to be taken out of the equation.

There were some "earmarks" or specific cases that were addressed that will impact this year's FA class and quite possibly the Giants offseason plans. Specific players were taken off designation as Type A FA's including Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham. In these cases, the team losing the player still gets 2 compensation picks, but the signing team does not forfeit a draft pick. This could make the Giants more interested in signing one of these two players as a fallback option if they can't sign Beltran. As long as the Giants don't lose a draft pick, I might even prefer Cuddyer to Beltran as Cuddyer can play multiple positions and has less of in injury history.

Draft: Each draft pick will be assigned a "slot value" much as it is now. There will be a very stiff, graduated tax on teams who exceed the cumulative slot value for the top 10 picks including the loss of future draft picks if they go too far above slot. It's not clear what happens if a team goes way above slot for the round 11 pick or later. This could prove to be a loophole barring further clarification. The signing deadline moves up to mid July instead of mid August. The 10 smallest market/lowest revenue teams will enter a lottery to get one of 6 supplemental round draft picks each year. Since market size changes slowly over time, I would expect the same teams to be in this lottery almost every year. Over time, the value of those draft picks could be a substantial competitive advantage. Major league contracts will be forbidden.

I don't think this will have much of an impact on the Giants as they have only gone substantially above slot for Buster Posey. Buster might not have fallen to them had this rule been in place at the time though. This may not be the Apocalypse for baseball talent that some are making it out to be. Teams can still allocate resources to sign an exceptional talent. They will just have to scrimp on the rest of the draft. Conversely, teams may choose to allocate their slot money more evenly over the first 10 rounds as a strategy. The only players I see being severely affected are the two-sport players. More of them may opt to play the alternative sport if they think they can do better there.

International Signings: Teams will have a international signing allowance ranging from about $1.8 M - $5 M each year in reverse order of record. Teams can trade up to half their allowance.

I don't see this having a major impact on the Giants who have already gone to a strategy of signing multiple players to lower bonuses rather than going for that one big impact signing. Early returns on this strategy seem promising.

Equipment: New players will not be allowed to use low density maple bats. If these bats are deemed to be dangerous, I think they should have been banned for all players. Probably existing endorsement contracts played a role in this decision. Always follow the money! Hitters will be required to use batting helmets that can withstand a 100 MPH impact. I think we can all be in favor of this one.

Substance abuse: Players will tested for HGH. It's about time! Players will be required to undergo evaluation for possible alcoholism for any altercation with the law

Minimum Salary: Rises to $480 K and then to $500 K. Minimal impact.

The agreement does nothing to help minor leaguers. I agree with Bacci on this. Baseball needs to do something to improve working conditions for minor leaguers. Unfortunately, minor leaguers are not members of the "club" and therefore their interests are not represented at these negotiations.

What do you think about the new Collective Bargaining Agreement?

Down on the Farm: Right Handed Starting Pitcher Depth Chart

2011-11-21T08:14:00.000-08:00

The final installment in the Depth Chart series comes down to RH starting pitching. Just one comment before we get started on the rundown: While the Giants have been excellent at developing their elite pitching prospects, they really haven't been all that with the second and third tier guys. They need to come up with a solid #4 or #5 starter from these ranks every once in awhile.

AA

Justin Fitzgerald 6'5", 225 lbs. BD: 3/3/1986. 9-9, 3.51, 146.1 IP, 55 BB, 111 K's. Local fellow from Cloverdale and Santa Rosa. College closer at UC Davis. Big, strong RHP who can pound the zone. Seemed to get stronger as the year went on finishing with 53 K's and 19 BB's in 61 IP over his last 10 games. Has put up very consistent numbers at each stop in his pro career. Should get a rotation spot in Fresno in 2012 and be close to the front of the line if an emergency callup is needed.

Daryl Maday 6'2", 225 lbs. BD: 8/12/1985. AA 4-10, 4.47, 116.2 IP, 39 BB, 92 K's. AAA 0-2, 7.07, 14 IP, 7 BB, 7 K's. AFL 1-2, 4.91, 11 IP, 5 BB, 11 K's. Drafted way back in 2006, Maday has kicked around the organization more as an organizational player than prospect. Rule 5 eligible this year, unprotected, low probability of being picked.

HIGH A

Chris Heston 6'4", 185 lbs. BD: 4/10/1988. 12-4, 3.16, 151.0 IP, 40 BB, 131 K's, GO/AO= 2.20. Heston had a stellar season for San Jose improving on his numbers from Augusta in 2010. Particularly strong down the stretch with a 1.78 ERA over his last 10 starts. I didn't get to see him pitch, but the reports I've seen indicate that his success is more due to pitchability than stuff.

Craig Westcott 6'4", 225 lbs. BD: 3/1/1986. 13-4, 3.42, 155.1 IP, 33 BB, 87 K's, GO/AO= 1.49. Repeater at High A after failing a promo to AA in 2010. Pitch-to-contact guy. I'd be concerned about the low K rate.

Andy Reichard 6'4", 235 lbs. BD: 12/4/1984. 9-4, 3.38, 112 IP, 25 BB, 61 K's, GO/AO= 0.98. Reichard has always been a personal favorite of mine for some reason. He's getting awfully old and the low K combined with a flyball tendency does not bode well for the future.

LOW A

Shawn Sanford 6'0", 200 lbs. BD: 8/28/1988. 10-10, 2.55, 169.2 IP, 30 BB, 107 K's, GO/AO= 1.63. Sanford won the SAL Most Outstanding Pitcher award, but those peripheral numbers scream older prospect dominating with pitchability. I just don't see them translating to higher levels.

Taylor Rogers 6'4", 200 lbs. BD: 6/5/1987. 12-10, 2.91, 154.2 IP, 38 BB, 86 K's, GO/AO= 2.11. Even older than Sanford. The groundball tendency is mildly interesting.

Justin Schumer 6'0", 180 lbs. BD: 8/2/1988. Low A 5-5, 5.24, 80.2 IP, 30 BB, 49 K. AA 1-0, 1.29, 14 IP, 10 BB, 4 K's. Nothing in this line suggests any potential. I think it's pretty clear he got lucky in his AA stint.

SHORT SEASON

Cameron Lamb 6'3", 195 lbs. BD: 5/29/1989. 4-6, 5.09, 74.1 IP, 15 BB, 58 K's, GO/AO= 2.16. Signed as a 17 yo FA out of Australia in 2007. Missed the 2008 season presumably to TJ surgery. Pitched very little in 2010, so even though he's getting older, he is still quite inexperienced. Needs a breakout of sorts. Like the control and GB tendencies.

Lorenzo Mendoza 5'10", 190 lbs. BD: 8/6/1991. 5-5, 4.19, 73 IP, 16 BB, 68 K's. Like the K/BB and he has age vs level going for him.

Reinier Roibal 6'2", 215 lbs. BD: 1/19/1989. 1-4, 3.74, 67.1 IP, 17 BB, 58 K's. Signed as a FA out of Cuba before the 2010 season. Only pitched 8.2 innings his first season, so this was really his first pro experience. Word is his stuff is not what it was touted to be coming out of Cuba. We'll see how he progresses. OK K/BB's.

Brandon Allen 6'6", 190 lbs. BD: 8/15.1991. 2-8, 6.04, 56.2 IP, 22 BB, 25 K's, GO/AO= 0.91. The Giants have started a pattern of drafting and signing at least 1 HS pitcher down the the draft. Allen was it for 2010 taken in round 18. This was his first extended pro experience. He struggled mightily but gets credit for hanging in there and improving as the season progressed. He put up an ERA of 4.86 over his last 10 appearances. The low walk rate is encouraging and he has age vs level going for him. Needs to get either a swing-and-miss pitch or a good hard sinker going forward. Goal was probably to pitch to contact and keep his walks down in his first extended pro experience.

Kendry Flores 6'2", 175 lbs. BD: 11/24/1991. 4-3, 5.06, 48.0 IP, 14 BB, 47 K's. Flores is still young, is reputed to have great stuff and has consistently put up better peripheral stats than his ERA would suggest. A kid to watch going forward.

ROOKIE AZL

Joan Gregorio 6'7", 180 lbs. BD: 1/12/1992. 3-0, 2.32, 50.1 IP, 16 BB, 43 K's. DSL graduate. Love his size. Has had good control for a guy that tall. Improved his K rate from the DSL.

Clayton Blackburn 6'3", 220 lbs. BD: 1/6/1993. 3-1, 1.08, 33.1 IP, 3 BB, 30 K's, GO/AO= 2.58. This year's lower round HS pitching draft pick in round 16. Signed early and impressed just about everybody with an excellent pro debut.

Kyle Crick 6'4", 220 lbs. BD: 11/30/1992. 1-0, 6.43, 7 IP, 8 BB, 8 K's. Supplemental round pick. Reportedly has gotten his FB up to 97 MPH. Pro debut was a mixed bag in a very small sample size. The Giants have a lot riding on him after the Wheeler trade.

This category is pretty much of a wasteland all the way down to short season ball where you start to see some interesting arms but no sure things. I'll try to rank 'em here:

1. Kyle Crick
2. Clayton Blackburn
3. Kendry Flores
4. Joan Gregorio
5. Lorenzo Mendoza
6. Cameron Lamb
7. Reinier Roibal
8. Brandon Allen
9. Justin Fitzgerald
10. Chris Heston
11. Everybody else.

I'm still hopeful that Seth Rosin will turn into at least a 2'nd tier SP prospect with Austin Fleet also possibly leaning more toward starting. The Giants need to concentrate their next draft on pitching as well as their international scouting and signings.

Down on the Farm: Left Handed Starting Pitcher Depth Chart

2011-11-18T06:14:00.000-08:00

There isn't as compelling a reason to separate starting pitchers by handedness, but to break up the category into more manageable segments, we'll go ahead and do it anyway. The Giants stable of LH starting pitching prospects has thinned considerably with the graduation of Madison Bumgarner, the release of Clayton Tanner and the trade of Ryan Verdugo. Let's take a look at what's left:

AAA

Matt Yourkin Covered in the LH relievers post. He could be an emergency callup option in event of injury but is probably behind Surkamp and Runzler there. Runzler was also covered in the LH reliever post. His role in the Giants organization remains fluid.

AA

Eric Surkamp 6'4", 190 lbs. BD: 7/16/1987. AA 10-4, 2.02, 142.1 IP, 44 BB, 165 K's. MLB 2-2, 5.74, 26.2 IP, 17 BB, 13 K's. Surkamp, once again, put up dominating numbers in the minors averaging well over 1 K/IP. He is reputed to have a dominating curveball and an adequate FB that he can use to set up the curveball. He failed to demonstrate those qualities in a late season callup for the Giants. The FB sat 88-90 and the curveball looked a bit tight and flat to me. He also had serious command issues with all pitches and as a rook didn't get much help from the umps. Whether it was rookie jitters and trying to do too much or whether he was just wearing down at the end of a long season remains to be seen. He will likely start 2012 in Fresno's rotation and be first in line for a callup depending on his results there.

HIGH A

Kelvin Marte 6'0", 180 lbs. BD: 11/24/1987. 12-6, 3.47, 147.2 IP, 47 BB, 84 K's, GO/AO= 1.75. Marte had a solid season for the Little Giants. I saw him pitch while sitting right behind home plate and got a pretty good read on his stuff. I was surprised that his FB sat at 92-93 MPH. The RC Quakes pitch trackers were sitting right behind me and were calling the velocities on each pitch. Marte also displayed a nice crisp breaking ball in the mid 80's and a changeup in the upper 70's that he was able to throw for strikes. Physically, he reminds me a lot of Odalis Perez who used to pitch for the Dodgers. He could have a future as a #4 or #5 starter.

LOW A

Mike Kickham 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 12/12/1988. 5-10, 4.11, 111.2 IP, 37 BB, 103 K's, GO/AO= 1.46. Throughout his college and pro career, Kickham has tended to put up better peripheral numbers than ERA's. He's a physically gifted pitcher with an apparent high ceiling. He finished the season strong for Augusta putting up a line of 4-5, 3.25, 55.1 IP, 13 BB, 40 K's, GO/AO= 2.36 over his last 10 games. His ERA as slightly over 2 over his last 6 starts. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch for San Jose next season.

ROOKIE AZL

Edwin Escobar 6'1", 185 lbs. BD: 4/22/1992. Low A 1-3, 18.00, 6 IP, 5 BB, 5 K's. AZL 2-4, 5.09, 46 IP, 17 BB, 42 K's. VWL 0-0, 5.59, 9.2 IP, 5 BB, 4 K's. Escobar pitched decently for the AZL Giants after washing out of Low A. Best thing going for him is he's still quite young.

Paul Davis 6'2", 210 lbs. BD: 1/29/1990. Rookie AZL 0-0, 3.44, 36.2 IP, 11 BB, 27 K's. SS 1-0, 1.64, 11 IP, 3 BB, 9 K's. Drafted out of JC ball, this was his first pro experience which looked somewhat promising.

DSL

Adalberto Mejia 6'3", 195 lbs. BD: 6/20/1993. 5-2, 1.42, 76 IP, 8 BB, 71 K's. I know it's the DSL but Mejia is one of the Giants 6 figure bonus babies from the international market and he certainly lived up to that reputation in his pro debut. He was putting up downright unbelieveable numbers before allowing 6 of his 12 ER and 3 of his 8 BB's in his last 2 starts. I've seen his name on the Giants Instructional League roster, so expect to see him pitching in the States in 2012, most likely the AZL.

Emmanuel De Jesus 6'0", 175 lbs. BD: 1/6/1994. 4-2, 1.74, 46.2 IP, 20 BB, 59 K's. De Jesus was the other LHP who created a buzz down in the DSL. He struggled in 2 bullpen appearances but then put up crazy numbers in 8 starts allowing just 3 ER in 43 IP with 12 BB, and 56 K's. That's all I know about him but the numbers are sure exciting.

2011 DRAFTEES

Josh Osich 6'3", 225 lbs. BD: 9/3/1988. OSU 6-4, 3.64, 76.2 IP, 34 BB, 79 K's. Osich was a redshirt junior for Oregon State coming off TJ surgery. He was not allowed to throw breaking balls until late in the season, so worked exclusively off a FB that sat at 93-94 MPH peaking at 97 as well as an excellent changeup. His stock peaked when he pitched a CG no-hitter against UCLA and was talked about as a possible first round pick by the Giants who were reported to be scouting him heavily. His velocity an stock dropped off at that end of the season and there were questions about his medical status. I read one report that the Giants received their final medical report after the draft had started! They ended up grabbing him in round 6. If he's healthy, that should be one of steals of the draft.

Here's how I rank 'em:

1. Eric Surkamp
2. Mike Kickham
3. Adalberto Mejia
4. Josh Osich(might have been #1 if proven healthy and if he had pitched in the pros)
5. Emmanuel De Jesus
6. Kelvin Marte
7. Paul Davis
8. Edwin Escobar
9. Matt Yourkin

Not a long list, but some interesting prospects. I toyed with ranking Mejia #1, but probably should see what he does in the States first.

Down on the Farm: Right Handed Relief Pitcher Depth Chart

2011-11-14T06:08:00.000-08:00

Right handed relievers generally include potential closers. While being lefthanded doesn't preclude a pitcher from being a closer, the vast majority of closers are RH. There may be several reasons for this: 1. LHP with closer velocity are scarce enough that if teams have one or two, they usually make them starters. 2. Managers might prefer to use the few LH relievers at their disposal in more high leverage situations against specific LH batters earlier in the game than against whatever comes up in the 9'th inning. 3. That's just the way it's always been done.

The thing about closers is once they are established, they often become overvalued. I don't subscribe to the notion that closers are fungible assets, but the established ones are generally overvalued. There are several closers on the FA market this offseason and they are still looking for top dollar. There's a note in today's MLB Trade Rumors about Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous being "shocked" at the demands of closers on the market, more so in length of contract than years salary. It seems they are all looking for 4-5 years deals. With the number of closers on the market, those demands may eventually come down, but it's still sobering.

Now, I don't know about you, but the thought of a 5 year/$60 M contract for Brian Wilson makes me long for the days of The Gamer and his contract. There is just no way that risking that much money for that long on Brian Wilson is a good idea. The corollary to that is the Giants better have a plan for who will take over when they have to either trade him or let him go.

In addition to the closer concerns, bullpen depth has become almost a prerequisite for winning a championship, thus inflating the market for relievers of all kinds. The later rounds of the draft and the farm system are relatively inexpensive ways of mitigating these costs. Let's take a look at how the Giants organization stacks up for the future of the bullpen:

AAA

Waldis Joaquin 6'0", 240 lbs. BD: 12/25/1986. AAA 2-2, 3.44, 49.2 IP, 23 BB, 27 K's, GO/AO= 1.49. MLB 1-0, 4.26, 6.1 IP, 3 BB, 3 K's, GO/AO- 2.75. Joaquin has been around seemingly forever, and he has yet to turn 25 yo. At one point, he was DFA'd by the Giants and claimed by the White Sox. He refused to sign with them and re-signed with the Giants as a minor league FA(I didn't even know a player could do that!) He was then reinstated to the 40 man roster and called up in September. He is basically a one pitch pitcher, but what a pitch! It's a 93-94 MPH 2 seam fastball with heavy, heavy sink that bores in on RH batters. It should be noted that his minor league splits had a 2.22 ERA with a 2.59 GO/AO against RH batters and a 5.06 ERA with a 1.21 GO/AO vs LH batters. I wouldn't be heartbroken if he took a bullpen slot away from Ramon Ramirez or Guillermo Mota. It should be noted that Fresno plays in a lot of high altitude stadiums were sinkers don't sink.

Steve Edlefsen 6'2", 195 lbs. BD: 6/27/1985. AAA 2-4, 5.66, 41.1 IP, 19 BB, 29 K, GO/AO= 1.96. MLB 0-0, 9.53, 11.1 IP, 10 BB, 6 K's. GO/AO= 4.20. Another guy with a diving 2 seamer. It has so much movement, it's very tough to control which was his undoing in the majors. Also had much more success against RH batters in the minors. Probably deserves at least one more chance at some point. Will definitely start the season in Fresno.

Dan Otero 6'3", 205 lbs. BD: 2/19/1985. AA/AAA 4-4, 2.31, 74 IP, 11 BB, 76 K's, GO/AO= 1.47, 13 Saves. Otero has worked his way up the ladder and deserves a shot soon. His numbers are reminiscent of Sergio Romo's with the great command/control but a slightly lower K rate. Still, the K/9>9 which is impressive for AAA. I've never seen a scouting report on Otero nor seen him pitch so I don't have a feel for how hittable he would be in the majors. Gotta like his minor league numbers though.

Scott Munter, Ronnie Ray, Casey Daigle, and Osiris Matos are all minor league FA's. I assume Marc Kroon will retire.

AA

Heath Hembree 6'4", 210 lbs. BD: 1/13/1989. High A 0-0, 0.73, 24.2 IP, 12 BB, 44 K's, 21 Saves. AA 1-1, 2.83, 28.2 IP, 13 BB, 34 K's, 17 Saves. After being drafted and blowing away rookie ball in 2010, Hembree rocketed up the Giants prospect rankings with a sensational 2011 campaign split between San Jose and Richmond. He was used exclusively as a closer averaging just under 1 IP/appearance. I saw him pitch early in the season and he has a truly impressive jumping fastball that sat at 96 MPH. My concern is that he doesn't seem to have any secondary stuff to speak of and pitching in the closer role does not give him an opportunity to develop it. He certainly has the heat to be a future closer though.

Hector Correa 6'3", 165 lbs. BD: 3/18/1988. High A 3-1, 1.93, 42 IP, 12 BB, 37 K. AA 4-1, 3.20, 39.1 IP, 12 BB, 32 K. Correa as acquired from Florida in the Ronny Paulino trade in 2009. He's worked his way up the ladder since then putting up decent ratios along the way. Future bullpen depth guy, but those are becoming more and more valuable.

Edwin Quirarte 6'2", 185 lbs. BD: 12/20/1986. High A 2-1, 12.2 IP, 1 BB, 14 K's. AA 1-2, 5.44, 46.1 IP, 20 BB, 38 K's. GO/AO= 2.06. Quirarte was a 5'th round draft choice in 2008 out of Cal State Northridge. You would hope that a college reliever drafted that high would progress more rapidly through the system and show more dominance.

Mitch Lively 6'5", 230 lbs. BD: 9/7/1985. High A/AA 3-7, 2.14, 71.1 IP, 27 BB, 71 K's. Drafted by Colorado in 2007 and dropped after his first pro experience that same year. The Giants picked him up in 2008 and he has been moving slowly up the system since then with pretty good numbers. Probably an organizaitonal player, but could sniff the back end of a MLB bullpen at some point.

HIGH A

Jake Dunning 6'4", 188 lbs. BD: 8/12/1988. 6-3, 4.74, 76 IP, 24 BB, 71 K, GO/AO= 1.47, 10 Saves. College SS converted to pitching. Tall slender build with very loose looking arm action. I saw him pitch a couple of times this year and was impressed. FB goes 93-95 MPH with the makings of a breaking ball and changeup. Started 7 games and didn't fare too well(wow! I didn't remember him starting at all!) Moved to the closer role after Hembree and Lively got promoted. Potential 8'th inning guy at least. Outside chance of moving back to starter at some point.

Jacob Dunnington 6'2", 160 lbs. BD: 2/2/1991. Low A 3-3, 3.77, 43 IP, 32 BB, 53 K's. High A 2-1, 2.82, 22.1 IP, 10 BB, 31 K's. Dunnington was signed as an undrafted FA out of HS, a very rare occurence. Somehow he just slipped through the draft unnoticed. This was his first full season as a pro. All of his appearances have been as a reliever where he has put up very interesting K ratios. I think he may convert to starting at some point. Looks like the Giants found a diamond in the rough!

Stephen Harrold 6'1", 200 lbs. BD: 3/12/1989. Low A 4-3, 1.54, 41 IP, 17 BB, 39 K, GO/AO= 1.73, 16 Saves. High A 1-0, 23 IP, 13 BB, 24 K. AFL 3-0, 1.88, 14.1 IP, 5 BB, 15 K's, GO/AO= 3.17. Harrold started out as the closer in Augusta, got a promo to SJ and struggled a bit. Has pitched extremely well in the AFL. Not sure what to make of him at this point, but he seems to be moving up the ladder quite smartly.

Chris Wilson 6'2", 205 lbs. BD: 11/27/1986. 0-1, 2.35, 15.1 IP, 6 BB, 15 K's. Wilson was drafted in the 38'th round in 2008. He started out on the closer track. Seems to have battled injuries the last two years, but has pitched well when able. A bit old but still moving up if he can stay healthy.

Jose Valdez 6'7", 250 lbs. BD: 8/1/1988. High A 1-0, 6.98, 38.2 IP, 34 BB, 44 K's. Low A 0-0, 0.00, 13.2 IP, 2 BB, 21 K's. My perennial breakout candidate started the year strong but then hit a wall and got crushed for several games. Missed some time and resurfaced in Augusta where he seemed fine. Not sure if the collapse was due to an injury or stress or what. He's been around long enough that he should be moving into Rule 5 and minor league FA territory soon. Future is a bit murky at this point, but my, what a physical presence on the mound!

Addison Proszek 6'5", 260 lbs. BD: 4/17/1987. Rookie AZL 1-0, 2.05, 22 IP, 3 BB, 21 K. High A 0-1, 6.75, 9.1 IP, 5 BB, 9 K's. Huge guy drafted in 2009. Has had trouble getting his pro career off the ground. I saw him near the end of the season with San Jose. He looked like he was throwing good but got knocked around. Might have a tough time finding opportunities to pitch as the Giants reload their system.

LOW A

Brett Bochy 6'2", 192 lbs. BD: 8/27/1987. 1-0, 1.38, 39.0, 8 BB, 53 K's, 10 Saves. Melonhead Jr. entered his junior season at Kansas as the closer, but suffered a torn UCL with subsequent TJ surgery at the start of the season. Scouting reports I've read have him with a 94 MPH fastball. He put up dominating K and BB rates in his pro debut for Augusta and could be a fast mover in the system.

Edward Concepcion 6'3", 190 lbs. BD: 10/3/1988. 1-1, 3.61, 52.1 IP, 36 BB, 62 K, GO/AO= 1.50. Concepcion has a high 90's heater, but has trouble making it go where he wants it to. He had better luck working exclusively out of the bullpen in Augusta. He's a high ceiling arm but a risk to not reach his ceiling due to the command/control issues.

Seth Rosin 6'5", 235 lbs. BD: 11/2/1988. 2-3, 3.34, 89.0 IP, 30 BB, 93 K's, GO/AO= 1.41. AFL 0-0, 2.13, 12.2 IP, 4 BB, 9 K's. Rosin was used as both a starter and reliever and put up solid numbers. He seemed to have a bit more success out of the bullpen. Personally, I see him as a workhorse starter who will pound the zone and eat innings. I hope the Giants give him more chances to start.

Austin Fleet 6'1", 175 lbs. BD: 4/17/1987. 3 levels 9-5, 3.87, 83.2 IP, 27 BB, 57 K's. AFL 2-1, 3.38, 16 IP, 3 BB, 14 K's. Fleet was a college closer who the Giants used as a starter after he was drafted in 2010. He started and relieved in 2011 so it's not clear what role he will take on in the future. Ceiling is probably a #4 or 5 starter or middle reliever.

Drew Bowlin 6'1", 190 lbs. BD: 12/28/1986. Low A 2-0, 3.66, 51.2 IP, 26 BB, 33 K's, 3 Saves. AA 0-0, 2.84, 6.1 IP, 4 BB, 4 K's. Older prospect for level with unimpressive K and BB ratios.

Matthew Graham 6'4", 225 lbs. BD: 5/1/1990. Low A 0-0, 5.32, 22 IP, 18 BB, 10 K, GO/AO= 3.00. SS 2-2, 8.35, 36.2 IP, 22 BB, 31 K, GO/AO= 1.44. Drafted as a project out of HS in 2009, Graham has struggled to establish himself in the pros. He's got a hard sinking fastball that he needs to command better and then add a secondary pitch or two to get more swings and misses. He's still fairly young. I hope the Giants are patient with him. Too early to tell if his future is in the bullpen or rotation, Needs to have some sustained success first.

SHORT SEASON

Stephen Shackleford 6'1", 185 lbs. BD: 5/5/1989. 2-2, 5.21, 46.2 IP, 19 BB, 41 K. Shack had interesting numbers in 2010 after being drafted. More pedestrian in 2011.

Brennan Flick 6'1", 180 lbs. BD: 9/12/1989. 2-3, 5.57, 32.1 IP, 16 BB, 30 K's, GO/AO= 3.71. Extreme groundball numbers may mitigate pedestrian K/BB ratios.

Cody Hall 6'4", 220 lbs. BD: 1/6/1988. 3-1, 2.63, 27.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 K's, 4 Saves. 19'th round draft pick. Strong K numbers, but a pretty high walk rate to go with it. Looks like another live arm for the Giants to try to harness.

ROOKIE AZL

Miguel Ferrer 6'3", 168 lbs. BD: 8/7/1990. 6-1, 1.53, 29.1 IP, 7 BB, 36 K's, GO/AO= 1.48. Nice numbers after moving up from the DSL.

Demondre Arnold 6'3", 208 lbs. BD: 3/18/1992. 1-0, 1.69, 26.2 IP, 8 BB, 32 K's, GO/AO= 1.47. I very optimistic that the Giants have found a steal deep in the draft here. Solidly build with a fluid looking arm. Not sure he gets it up much above 90 MPH though.

Ryan Bean 6'4", 225 lbs. BD: 3/9/1990. 2-1, 4.15, 21.2 IP, 15 BB, 28 K's. Great size. Looks like he has stuff. Needs to cut down on the walks.

Danny Sandbrink 6'2", 195 lbs BD: 6/23/1989. 1-0, 2.53, 21.1 IP, 3 BB, 21 K's, GO/AO= 1.92. Drafted out of Stanford. AZL is too low a level for him.

Derek Law 6'3", 218 lbs. BD: 9/14/1990. 0-0, 2.50, 18 IP, 2 BB, 19 K's, 4 Saves. JC draftee with nice numbers in his pro debut.

Christopher Marlowe 6'0", 175 lbs. BD: 10/26/1989. 1-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 1 BB, 5 K's. Strikeout artist from a small college. One of 5 Giants draftees who have hit 97 on the radar gun. Has a plus breaking ball as a put away pitch. Could rise rapidly as a reliever or be converted to starting.

Dashenko Ricardo 6'0", 160 lbs. BD; 3/1/1990. 1-0, 9.00, 3 IP, 0 BB, 6 K's. Former catcher who the Giants picked up in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft and converted to pitching. Reportedly has a big time arm.

2011 DRAFTEE

Ray Black 6'5", 225 lbs. BD: 6/26/1990. Pitt 1-1, 6.30, 20 IP, 26 BB, 33 K's. Black is a big guy with a big fastball that reaches 97 MPH. 26 BB's in 20 IP? Yikes! Tidrow has his work cut out for him!

OK, here's an attempt to rank 'em:

1. Heath Hembree
2. Brett Bochy
3. Jake Dunning
4. Chris Marlowe
5. Seth Rosin*
6. Jacob Dunnington*
7. Hector Correa
8. Stephen Harrold
9. Austin Fleet*
10. Edward Concepcion
11. Ray Black
12. Demondre Arnold.
13. Dan Otero
14. Waldis Joaquin
15. Jose Valdez
16. Derek Law
17. Cody Hall
18. Miguel Ferrer
19. Steve Edlefsen
20. Chris Wilson
21. Dashenko Ricardo
22. Danny Sandbrink.
23 The Rest.

*Pitchers who I think are likely to be tried as starters again.

Down on the Farm: Left Handed Relief Pitcher Depth Chart

2011-11-12T06:43:00.000-08:00

I think there are some truths becoming increasingly evident on the MLB scene: 1. Strong bullpens are essential to winning championships. 2. Strong bullpens need at least 1 LHP. 2 LHP's are better. 3. Good LHRP's are relatively scarce. By corollary, they are also getting more expensive.

One way for MLB teams to save an easy $5-10 M is to maintain a stream of LHRP's coming up through the minors to replace veterans who are making $4-5 M/yr. Given the paucity of good options at the MLB level, it should be relatively easy to develop replacement level talent or better through the draft and farm system. Let's take a look at what the Giants have brewing Down on the Farm:

MLB/AAA

Dan Runzler 6'4", 235 lbs. BD: 3/30/1985. AAA 2-3, 3.98, 52 IP, 32 BB, 59 K's, GO/AO= 1.47. MLB 1-2, 6.26, 27.1 IP, 16 BB, 25 K's, GO/AO= 1.38. Runzler is technically not a prospect even though he will likely start the season in Fresno. He has the stuff to be a shut down closer, dominant setup man or even a dominant starter. His big problem is command/control. The Giants are still tinkering with making him a starter, although that effort flagged about midseason after a half-hearted trial. He did get one start at the MLB level that ended badly. In one memorable AB early in the season, Runzler abused a red hot Carlos Gonzalez so badly it put CarGo into a 2 month slump! At other times, Dan the Man couldn't find home plate to save his life. His splits seem to indicate that he actually does better against RH batters. With Lopez and Affeldt signed for 2012, I'd like to see the Giants put Runzler in the rotation in Fresno and just leave him there for the season. I think it's easier to move back to reliever than to starter.

AAA

Jason Stevenson 6'1", 175 lbs. BD: 8/8/1981. AA 1-0, 1.29, 7 IP, 2 BB, 7 K's. AAA 1-0, 5.56, 11.1 IP, 5 BB, 9 K's. If this guy ever makes it to the majors, his story will rival Ryan Vogelsong's. Signed by the Giants out of indy ball last year after he was out of professional baseball for several years, he had some good and bad outings in a very small sample size, too small to get a read on splits.

Wilmin Rodriguez 6'2", 220 lbs. BD: 5/13/1985. AA 4-3, 3.77, 57.1 IP, 23 BB, 38 K's. AAA 0-0, 9.00, 7 IP, 6 BB, 5 K's. Wilmin has been around seemingly forever in the lower levels of the organization. I saw him pitch in 2010 for San Jose. He's a big LHP who can get the heater up to 93 MPH. K/BB ratios are much better against LH batters. He just re-upped as a minor league FA with the Giants and got a spring training invite in the process. He's getting old but still has left specialist potential.

Matt Yourkin 6'3", 240 lbs. BD: 7/4/1981. 10-8, 4.69, 167 IP, 56 BB, 145 K. Yourkin has been a starter for Fresno the last 2 years with decent results, but not enough to project him as a MLB starter. Look at his split against LH batters though: 3.09 ERA, 46.2 IP, 8 BB, 47 K's! He's a left specialist!

AA

David Quinowski 5'10", 170 lbs. BD: 4/23/1986. 4-3, 3.64, 54.1 IP, 19 BB, 39 K's. Drafted in the 46'th round in 2004 and signed as as draft and follow in 2005. Moved smartly through the lower minors despite his relatively small size. Had TJ and missed 2008 and essentially started over in 2009. His ceiling at this point is probably as a lefty reliever specialist.

HIGH A

Ari Ronick 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 3/25/1986. 3-1, 3.56, 60.2 IP, 36 BB, 54 K's. First season back after TJ. Pitched in relief for SJ. No discernable L-R split.

Tom Vessella 6'6", 205 lbs. BD: 10/12/1985. 4 levels 4-6, 5.50, 72 IP, 45 BB, 50 K's. Picked up by the Giants after he was dropped by the Astros system. Was worse against LH hitters in a very small sample. Tough to project any kind of MLB career for him at this point.

LOW A

Gaspar Santiago 6'0", 200 lbs. BD: 9/23/1989. 3-7, 94.2 IP, 53 BB, 88 K's. Swing man for Augusta. Worse against LH batters in a very small sample.

Ryan Bradley 6'1", 180 lbs. BD: 7/15/1988. 4-2, 4.31, 79.1 IP, 32 BB, 48 K's. 30'th round pick in 2010. Another swing guy for Augusta. Numbers unimpressive. Son of Giants minor league pitching coordinator Bert Bradley.

SHORT SEASON

Jack Snodgrass 6'6", 216 lbs. BD: 12/10/1987. 4-1, 3.59, 47.2 IP, 14 BB, 44 K's, GO/AO= 2.77. Nice numbers for his pro debut. Started 4 games and was better as a starter so we'll see how he develops.

Phil McCormick 6'1", 184 lbs. BD: 9/7/1988. 1-1, 1.19, 30.1 IP, 11 BB, 29 K's, GO/AO= 3.43, 6 Saves. Another excellent pro debut. Used exclusively as a reliever and even as a closer.

Chris Gloor 6'6", 255 lbs. BD: 3/7/1987. 3 levels 3-1, 3.34, 29.2 IP, 11 BB, 36 K's. Sleeper alert! Huge LHP, drafted in 2009, missed part of 2011 apparently due to injury. If he's healthy, I could see him rising quickly through the system. Could dominate as a lefty relief specialist.

Aaron King 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 4/27/1989. 3 levels 0-2, 6.62, 35.1 IP, 36 BB, 36 K's. Physically gifted LHP who has battled control demons. Did not seem to make progress with those in 2011. Still has some time to work them out.

ROOKIE AZL

Brian Maloney 6'0", 176 lbs. BD: 10/4/1988. 1-0, 3.55, 12.2 IP, 5 BB, 21 K's. SS 0-1, 18.00, 5 IP, 11 BB, 7 K's. Small college LHP made a nice debut in rookie ball, but struggled after a late season promo to S-K.

Steven Neff 6'2", 195 lbs. BD: 2/24/1989. 0-0, 29.25, 4 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's. Nice ratios but got pounded in a very small sample size. Managed to record 1 Save.

DSL

Franklin Noel 6'1", 175 lbs. BD: 12/20/1988. 2-5, 3.51, 33.1 IP, 14 BB, 37 K's, GO/AO= 2.15, 16 Saves. Noel was the closer for the DSL Giants but 22 is extremely old for the level. Probably not a prospect even to be a lefty specialist.

Ebert Fernandez 6'3", 192 lbs. BD: 10/28/1990. 5-3, 4.17, 49.2 IP, 23 BB, 36 K, GO/AO= 2.80. 4'th season in the DSL which does not bode well.

2011 DRAFTEE

Bryce Bandilla 6'4", 237 lbs. BD: 1/16/1990. Arizona(college) 5-2, 3.66, 46.2 IP, 36 BB, 48 K's. Big brute of a LHP who has clocked 97 MPH with the fastball. Has a good change up to go with it, but essentially no breaking ball. Had control issues his junior season in college. The Giants drafted him for his arm in the 4'th round and may try to convert him to starting. Could advance more quickly as a reliever but has to command the strike zone. Might have trouble against left batters if he doesn't develop a breaking ball.

Mitchell Beacom 6'8", 260 lbs. BD: 7/4/1989. 0-2, 2.20, 32.2 IP, 9 BB, 38 K's. Huge sidewinding lefty who could be the quintessential left specialist. That's how he was used in college and what he projects as in the pros. Can't wait to see this guy pitch in person!

Geno Espinelli, Alex Hinshaw, Chuck Lofgren and Justin Dowdy are all minor league FA's this year. BTW, for a complete sortable list of minor league FA's, check out Baseball America.

Not an illustrious bunch, but here's how I would rank 'em as prospects(leaving out Runzler):

1. Bryce Bandilla
2. Chris Gloor
3. Jack Snodgrass
4. Phil McCormick
5. Mitchell Beacom
6. Aaron King
7. Wilmin Rodriguez
8. David Quinowski
9. Ari Ronick
10. Gaspar Santiago
11. The Rest.

4 of the top 5 came aboard in the last draft. We'll see if they flame out or if the Giants are putting more emphasis on trying to find lefty specialists in the draft.

Down on the Farm: Catcher Depth Chart

2011-11-10T06:20:00.000-08:00

With the prospects for Buster Posey making it back as the starting catcher for the San Francisco Giants, the urgency to find an alternative has faded, but the memory of Buster going down with that awful injury is a reminder that starting catchers often don't have long careers. It's one of the more scarce positions in baseball, so it is a good idea to have a solid pipeline of catching talent coming up through the system at all times. In that regard, the Giants are as well stocked at catcher in their organization as any team in baseball.

Yesterday seemed to be open season for snarky comments about the Giants farm system over on Fangraphs. One such comment noted the presence of 3 "backup" catchers in the Giants top 15 prospects. It wasn't clear if this was a commentary on the talent of the prospects or on the presence of Buster Posey having a stranglehold on the starting catcher position for the forseeable future. In either case, it was wildly off base. Let's take a look at the Giants stockpile of young catching talent:

AAA

Hector Sanchez 5'11", 235 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 11/17/1989. High A .302/.338/.533, 11 HR in 212 AB. AAA .261/.315/.340 in 153 AB. MLB .258/.324/.323 in 31 AB. Hector Sanchez has been a favorite sleeper prospect to Giants prospect watchers for a long time. He was enjoying a fine season in San Jose when his stock suddenly skyrocketed when the Giants started desperately looking for someone to step in after Buster's injury. Hector was rushed, first to Fresno, then to SF. As sometimes happens in Giantsland, he mostly sat on the bench after all that frantic activity and was later sent back down to San Jose only to be called back when rosters expanded in September. He did manage to put together some impressive AB's for the Giants and handled himself in a very mature fashion through all the ups and downs. He's currently hitting .412 in Venezuela. Don't get kidnapped, Hector! He will probably start 2012 in either Richmond or Fresno. Good switch-hitting catchers are extremely valuable commodities. I think Hector is likely to be a starting catcher in the majors someday, probably soon. Whether it will be with the Giants remains to be seen.

Jackson Williams 5'11", 205 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 5/14/1986. AA/AAA .191/.288/.287. Williams was a controversial supplemental round pick in the 2007 draft. He's touted to be a superior defensive catcher, but the bat has never come around.

AA

Johnny Monell 5'11", 205 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 3/27/2986. .249/.334/.394, 10 HR in 386 AB. Between Hector Sanchez' wild ride and Tommy Josephs's breakout, Johnny Monell was practically forgotten last year. Those are not great numbers, but they are also not terrible for the Eastern League. I think he did well enough to deserve a promotion to Fresno where I wouldn't be shocked to see much more offensive production. Catchers who can hit lefthanded are valuable commodities. I think Monell has a minimum future as a long time backup catcher in the majors, possibly more.

HIGH A

Tommy Joseph 6'1", 220 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 7/16/1991. .270/.317/.471, 33 2B, 22 HR in 514 AB. Tommy Joseph has always had "light tower power." The question was how often it would get displayed as he struggled to make contact. Tommy took a big step forward in the second half last season hitting .301 after the Cal League All-Star break. His BA's the last 3 full months of the season were .297, .299, .299. He also made great strides in his catching defense and was rated the top defensive catcher in the Cal League by BA at the end of the season. He was the second youngest player in the Cal League to boot. He should move up to AA where he will face a stiff test of his hitting skills. He's young enough that he can easily afford to repeat a level on his way up though.

Alex Burg 6'0", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 8/9/1987. .298/.369/.550 with 24 2B, 14 HR in 262 AB. Here's my sleeper of sleepers! Burg played 3 or 4 positions for San Jose, including catcher, after a mid-season placement from extended spring training and just tore the Cal League up. He was drafted as a catcher out of Washington State in 2010 and hit .245/.331/.443 in 3 stops that year showing good excellent Iso's, so I'm inclined to believe his Cal League numbers are not a fluke. Should move up to AA and continue his utility role. Do you realize how valuable a utility bat like that who can play catcher is to a baseball team? Oh man, watch this kid!

LOW A

Jeff Arnold 6'2", 205 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 1/13/1988. .213/.293/.340, 6 HR. Don't have a scouting report on his D but it would have to be very good to overcome a batting line like that, especially in this organization.

SHORT SEASON

Mike Murray 5'11", 205 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 4/24/1988. .326/.394/.459, 6 HR. Signed as an undrafted FA in 2010, he essentially repeated the level after hitting .319 last year for reasons that are unclear. Maybe defense? Maybe just too crowded at higher levels? He shared catching duties with 2 other guys we will list and a lot of his AB's were as a DH. Nothing wrong with the bat that I can see.

Dan Burkhart 5'11", 215 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 3/6/1989. SS .285/.329/.438, 4 HR in 144 AB. Low A .217/.265/.261 in 46 AB. 10th round draft pick out of Ohio State in 2010. Also essentially repeating the level after hitting .328 last year. Is there room for all these guys?

Joe Staley 6'1", 235 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 5/8/1989. .280/.383/.490, 8 HR in 157 AB. 8'th round pick in 2010, played AZL last year. Bat looks promising. Again, where do all these guys fit?

ROOKIE AZL

Eric Sim 6'2", 215 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 1/3/1989. .352/.438/.586, 6 HR, 5 SB in 145 AB. Got in a few games in 2010 hitting just .108. Raked this year but at a much too low a level.

Myles Schroder 5'11", 180 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 8/1/1987. .282/.308/.445. Given the birthdate, you have to think he's pretty much an organizational player.

Gabriel Cornier 6'0", 190 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 6/10/1992. .130/.259/.261, 1 HR in 23 AB. DSL graduate. Obviously didn't get much of a look.

DSL

Luis Vasquez 5'10", 170 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 3/20/1991. .262/.349/.303. Hit .325 over his last 10 games. Old for the DSL.

Fernando Pujadas 6'1", 179 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 1/2/1992. .256/.316/.400, 3 HR in 90 AB. Showed a bit of power. 19 is still pretty old for the DSL.

2011 DRAFTEE

Andrew Susac 6'1", 205 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 3/22/1990. Oregon State .298/.429/.525, 5 HR. Susac had his season interrupted by a hamate fracture in his left hand. He returned to finish the season, but hard to tell how much it might have affected his game. BA rated him as having the best power bat in the Giants draft, although he did not hit a lot of HR's in college with just 2 in 2010. Rated a late first round talent by most analysts, the Giants grabbed him in round 2 when he fell to them. I expect him to be the starting catcher for San Jose, although Arnold and one or more of the S-K guys could land there with Susac starting in Augusta.

Drew Stiner 6'2", 210 lbs. He was Dylan Bundy's catcher in HS. Scouting reports say he's an excellent defensive catcher but lots of questions about his bat. Reportedly has a pull happy approach.

The Giants are well stocked at the catcher position, possibly more than any other organization. Here's how I would rank them as prospects(this is a tough one!):

1. Tommy Joseph
2. Hector Sanchez
3. Andrew Susac
4. Johnny Monell
5. Alex Burg
6. Joe Staley
7. Mike Murray
8. Dan Burkhart
9. Eric Sim
10. Drew Stiner
11. Jeff Arnold.
12. The rest

Hot Stove Update: Giants Trade Sanchez For Melky!

2011-11-08T05:48:00.000-08:00

The Giants officially gave up on Jonathan Sanchez yesterday, something that probably happened in reality sometime around mid-season 2011. In the process, they were able to fill a need in CF that likely would have cost a lot more had they gone the free agent route. Ryan Verdugo was a throw-in and probably will ultimately prove to be a non-factor in the trade. Let's break it down:

You might recall that I listed The Melkman as a possible solution in CF back in my post on Scouting the Centerfielders. Here's what I had to say about him: "The Melkman had a pretty darn good season for KC. They have Lorenzo Cain waiting in the wings and may be looking to sell high on Melky. He has one more year of arbitration and will get a nice raise from the $1.2 M he made last year, but it will probably not be a huge amount and it's a short term commitment. The price in prospects could be steep though."

"The price in prospects could be steep"! The Giants were able to land Melky for a player who has underachieved and is getting expensive, a much better deal than if they had to give up a couple of Top 10 organizational prospects. To me, the deal is a winner right there. The only serious alternative for CF on the FA market was Coco Crisp. I'm a Coco fan, but the guy is a huge injury risk and would have required a minimum of a 2 year deal for more money per season. The option of letting Sanchez walk and using the money to sign Crisp was not as good. Maybe BJ Upton might have had better upside, but Upton has been an underachiever himself and would have cost a lot more in trade. The option of going into the season with Andres Torres as the CF starter was not an option in the Giants minds nor mine.

The trade leaves the Giants with tons of flexibility. I think it puts them in slightly better position to sign Beltran both in terms of payroll and Beltran's request that the upgrade the offense in other areas. If they fail to sign Beltran, they can still go after another LF or they could even get another CF and move Melky over to LF.

If you are looking for an in-depth discussion on regression, BABIP, and who won or lost this trade, I would suggest going to Fangraphs and reading several articles there about it. Bottom line: Both Melky and Sanchez have had their ups and downs. They are both capable of bigger and better things and are both capable of turning into pumpkins. In both cases, their success or failure going forward will depend more on attitude and conditioning than BABIP's and Regressions. To me, it's an even trade that does a nice job of addressing several major problems for the Giants. I'll take it.

I've liked Melky since he was coming along with the Yankees. I always though he was on the verge of a breakout, but the Yanks always blocked him with the parade of veteran OF's they brought in. Melky was a similar tool and skill set to Bernie Williams and I would think Bernie would be a pretty tough act to follow in NY. It's likely that Melky will never live up to his early promise, but he's 27 and coming off the best season of his career in a park that is at least as tough to hit in as AT&T. If he keeps his word about staying in shape, he could be a big addition. At his age, I wouldn't be upset if the Giants used his last year of arbitration eligibility to leverage a team favorable 2-3 year deal. At worst, he would still be tradeable under that.

I'm bit sad to see Jonathan Sanchez go. I think I'm the first guy who noticed him as a promising prospect way back when Dobbsie and I were holding down the Prospect Thread on the Giants Message Board. I wrote a post about his performance in Winter ball that Dobbsie forwarded to someone he knew at BA. Shortly therafter, BA had a short blurb about him on their site. So, I've always been partial to J Sanchez.

Last year could not have been more disappointing. He was poised for a breakout season and basically threw it away. It wasn't just the poor performance. He appeared to be out of shape. He had some of the worst body language I've ever seen a pitcher have out on the mound. Any little thing that went wrong he'd get flushed in the face, stare out at nothing, walk around the mound. He often looked like that was the last place in the world he wanted to be. Baggs has come out with some anecdotes that suggest attitude had become a serious problem. At one point Sanchez was asked if he was concerned about losing his place in the rotation. He replied "I'm the #2 pitcher, I'm not worried" as if pitching on day 2 of the season made him the Giants second best pitcher! Come on, Sanchez! It was just to keep Timmy and Cainer from going back-to-back! After he went on the DL, he said he felt unappreciated by the organization and would probably be out until September. That comment got the Giants brass upset enough to talk to him about it. Earlier in the spring, Baggs asked Sanchez if cutting down on walks was a goal for the season. Sanchez responded by saying it wasn't and he didn't think he needed to change anything.

Maybe a change of scenery will be good for Jonathan and he'll win the Cy Young Award his stuff let's him be capable of. I wouldn't bet on it though. If he was unhappy in SF, I'm not sure how he's going to find it in a place like KC. Then again, Melky got his ship righted there.

Down on the Farm: First Base Depth Chart

2011-11-04T17:48:00.000-07:00

First base for the Giants has been a revolving door of reclamation projects since JT Snow retired. Aubrey Huff is the current incumbent first baseman. Despite a lot of anger at his wretched performance in 2011 when he was quite obviously out of shape and out of sorts, he will almost certainly be the starting first baseman on opening say 2012. How long he stays there probably depends on his apparent conditioning and performance. He will likely not be with the Giants in 2013. Brandon Belt is the heir apparent to JT's old position. The questions about Belt are whether he will be the starting LF in 2012 or start the year in AAA, and whether he will take over at first base sometime in mid-season or in 2013. Of course, Brett Pill might sneak in and have something to say about all that. Belt has too many MLB AB's to qualify as a prospect, but he is not an established MLB player either. Let's take a look at who might challenge Brandon down the road:

AAA

Brett Pill 6'4", 210 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/9/1984. AAA .312/.341/.530, 36 2B, 25 HR. MLB .300/.321/.560, 3 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR in 50 AB. Pill has taken his time climbing through the organization. He's always been a doubles machine, but found his HR stroke in 2011. Impressed almost everybody including Brian Sabean with a major league approach at the plate in a September look-see. He's an excellent fielder to boot and even played some 2B for Fresno in a pinch. Did he put himself into position to challenge for the starting first base gig in SF should Aubrey Huff falter again?

HIGH A

Luke Anders 6'6", 225 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 10/2/1986. .246/.326/.423, 24 2B, 13 HR. Unimpressive performance for the big guy in San Jose. Probably an organizational player. Will probably get a chance to show something in Richmond just because there isn't anyone else to play the position there!

LOW A

Josh Mazzola 6'2", 195 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/10/1986. .259/.342/.427, 22 2B, 13 HR. Mazzola was signed as an undrafted FA in 2008. He missed almost all of 2010 with an injury. Probably an organizational player at this point.

Ryan Scoma 6'2", 180 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 9/12/1987. .254/.310/.358, 26 2B, 6 HR. Scoma showed some doubles power but will have to hit more to be a 1B prospect, although Pill had similar struggles in the low minors.

SHORT SEASON

Brice Cutspec 6'4", 250 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 12/7/1987. .240/.286/.479, 6 HR in 96 AB's. Cutspec was signed as an undrafted FA in 2010. Put up good numbers in the AZL. Showed a bit of power at the higher level, but not much else. Last game was 7/29. Injury? Lost his job to Ben Thomas?

Ben Thomas 6'1", 240 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 6/3/1989. AZL .346/.380/.569, 9 2B, 6 HR in 130 AB. S-K .302/.340/.417 in 96 AB. Wide body late round college draftee. Batting line for Xavier was .350/.435/.632 with 15 HR's. Seems to be be a hitter and John Barr seems to know hitters when he sees them. Will have to prove it at higher levels.

ROOKIE AZL

Brian Nicholson 6'2", 225 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 10/31/1989. .274/.336/.402 in 117 AB. Another late round college draftee out of NAIA Concordia in SoCal. Modest start to pro career and was old for the league.

DSL

Alexis Almeida 6'3", 215 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 2/16/1993. .248/.267/.288. Don't know anything about this kid but he's got the size to play 1B and he's not too old for the level. That's enough for me to include him.

2011 DRAFTEES

Ricky Oropesa 6'3", 225 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 12/15/1989. USC .322/.402/.481, 10 HR. 2010 .353/.454/.711 with 22 HR. As most of you know, I work with Ricky's mom and have followed his career since he was a junior in high school. Imagine my excitement when I realized Ricky had been drafted by the Giants, the team I have been obsessed with since I was about 10 years old! I plead no contest to any charges of bias here! Rickey is a classic power hitting first baseman, the kind the Giants have tended to not draft during Brian Sabean's tenure as GM. He tore up the Pac 10, a conference that generally has pretty good pitching, in 2010. His 2011 was not as impressive which is probably why his draft stock slipped. He may have been pressing a bit during his draft year. There was also the BBCOR bats that are not as lively as the old metal ones. A couple of other factors that are not as well known: 1. There were not BBCOR bats available in Ricky's preferred size for the first month or so of the 2011 season so he had to adjust and then readjust when his bat finally came. 2. The new coach at USC wanted him to use a more level, line drive swing. I'm pretty sure the Giants will have no problem letting him use his natural power stroke in the pros. I think Ricky is athletic enough to play 3B or even LF, but he will probably stay at 1B. He'll go as far as his bat takes him at that position. I have faith in the bat!

From what I can gather, the Giants were looking at Ricky in round 2 of the draft. That still would have been a good value as BA had him ranked in the supplemental first round. When Andrew Susac fell to the Giants in round 2, they made the adjustment and grabbed him only to find Ricky still on the board at their pick in round 3! I'm sure falling that far was disappointing to Ricky and his family, but what a great drafting job by the Giants! I understand the clincher to the Giants interest came when John Barr himself was in the stands at the game where Ricky took Gerritt Cole deep late in the college season. Based on his college pedigree and draft position, I would expect to see Ricky playing for the San Jose Giants next spring.

WILD CARD

Angel Villalona Angel V was a raw teenage prospect when we last saw him play for the San Jose Giants in 2009. Since then, he's been on a painful journey, an experience that likely either ruined his baseball career forever or forced him to grow up in a big hurry. Accused of murdering a man in his home country of Dominican Republic, and then left to twist in the wind by the prosecutor after the family of the deceased withdrew their claims after a reported 5 figure payoff. Whether Angel is truly guilty or not, the whole episode exposed what must be a very corrupt and ineffectual law enforcement and judicial system in that country. Angel has been reported to be in much better shape than when he last played. He recently came to terms with the Giants in a dispute over his bonus money. It will be interesting to see where he surfaces in 2012. My guess? AZL.

The Giants seldom draft first basemen in the higher rounds preferring up-the-middle players. I understand the concept that it's easier to fill corner positions from outside the organization, but the Giants haven't always been able to do that. Historically, first base has brought the highest return on first round draft picks of any position. The Giants philosophy may be changing a bit under John Barr with the recent drafting of Brandon Belt, who was a major sleeper, and now Ricky Oropesa, who is more of a classic power hitting first baseman with great pedigree. Here's my ranking of the organizational first base prospects:

1. Ricky Oropesa(by a large margin, BTW)
2. Brett Pill
3. Luke Anders
4. Ben Thomas
5. Ryan Scoma
6. Josh Mazzola
7. Brice Cutspec
8. Brian Nicholson
9. Alexis Almeida
?? Angel Villalona(could be ranked as high as #2 or as low as #10. I'm gonna say maybe #3 as there is a pretty big drop off between Pill and Anders.)

Brandon Belt would top the list if he still had prospect eligibility. It's hard to tell who might be the Giants first baseman of the future. The cupboard is not as bare as this list makes it look. There's Belt, of course. Then either Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval could slide over there at any time. Adam Duvall could move over from third base and Tommy Joseph could still end up there. Alex Burg is a deep sleeper.

Down on the Farm: Third Base Depth Chart

2011-11-02T20:22:00.000-07:00

With Pablo Sandoval virtually assured of being the starting third baseman for the Giants next year, there really isn't a need to delve into the available 3B FA's. The question with Sandoval is what happens over the next 3 seasons? Can he prove he is able to maintain his weight and conditioning? Is he the type of player the Giants should invest in a big dollar long term contract that extends beyond his arbitration years? Personally, if I was in Sabes' shoes, I'd go year to year with Pablo and make the decision about locking him up as late as possible. Make him prove he can stay in shape every year in between. Pablo is a guy who is blessed with extraordinary athletic talent that is packaged in a very bad body. Whereas most players can control their weight by an ounce of self control and a reasonable workout regimen, Pablo will have to to to extraordinary lengths, some quite painful, to maintain a semblance of control on his weight. I'm just not sure you ever want to commit to 5+ years with somebody like that. Stinks for Pablo, but unfortunately for him, you can discriminate against certain body types in baseball. With that background looming, let's look at who might make the Giants willing to let some other team gamble on Pablo down the road:

AAA

Conor Gillaspie 6'1", 195 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 7/18/1987. .297/.389/453, 22 2B, 6 3B, 11 HR, 9 SB, 9 CS. Apparently the Giants have a 4'th option on Conor Gillaspie. I remember they had one on Todd Linden too, and he wasn't too happy about it. Gillaspie started to look a bit more like Bill Mueller in 2011 with an excellent OBP the most salient feature of his game. If he does get sent down to Fresno for an encore, it would probably be wise for him to play several positions. including 2B, as he may not dislodge Pablo for awhile. He was a very mechanical fielder with a weak arm when I saw him play for San Jose a couple of years ago. Maybe he's gotten better, but I'm still thinking he might be a tweener: Not enough bat for 3B and not enough glove for 2B.

AA

Chris Dominguez 6'3", 215 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 11/22/1986. High A: .291/.337/.465, 11 HR. AA: .244/.272/.403, 7 HR. I saw Chris play for San Jose early in the season. He certainly looks like a big league ballplayer! 6'3", 215 is big but he looks significantly bigger than that out on the field. Dominguez' stock had to take a jump up in 2011 as he dominated High A and held his own in AA although he did tail off at the end of the season a bit. He may not ever hit for a high average at the MLB level, but if he can avoid Dave Kingman territory, he will hit some long taters! He's one guy who might even challenge The Glove in left-center at AT&T. He's not an agile fielder, but has a rifle arm and could probably pitch if he had to. If Gillaspie is going back to Fresno, Chris might be stuck in Richmond for at least another half season.

HIGH A

Alex Burg 6'0", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 8/9/1987. .298/.369/.550, 24 2B, 14 HR in 262 AB. Burg is officially a catcher, but he played a lot of 3B and some 1B for the Little Giants and, oh man, did he ever hit! He's a slightly smaller version of Tommy Joseph, very tightly packed. In fact, I mistook him for Joseph in a game I attended near the end of the season in San Bernardino! Anyway, he hit pretty well in 2010 too, so I don't think it's a fluke. A guy with a bat like that who can play multiple positions, including catcher, has a tremendous shot a pretty good major league career, even if it's always as a utility guy. If you are looking for deep sleepers, you could do a lot worse than starting your list with Alex Burg.

LOW A

Adam Duvall 6'1", 205 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/4/1988. .285/.385/.527, 30 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR. Drafted as a 2B out of Louisville in 2010, Duvall played exclusively 3B in 2011 and put on an impressive hitting display for Augusta, a tough place for power hitters. He committed a lot of errors which I would expect to diminish has he gains experience at the position. He certainly has the bat for it. Another deep sleeper, maybe not quite as deep as Burg, but I don't think very many people know about him.

SHORT SEASON

Garrett Buechele 6'0", 200 lbs, B-R, T-R, BD: 10/23/1989. Rookie AZL: .308/.325/.513, 2 HR in 39 AB. SS: .235/.288/.350, 5 HR. Garrett is the son of former MLB player Steve Buechele. They seem to be cut out of a similar cloth as players. Steve had a career line of .245/.316/.394. I see a similar ceiling for Garrett, but he's more likely to end up in Ryan Rohlinger territory.

ROOKIE AZL

Jose Cuevas 6'2", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/5/1988. .337/.403/.639, 9 HR, 9 SB, 2 CS. Before you get too excited by the numbers, consider that Cuevas was a college draftee repeating rookie ball. He'll have to prove it at higher levels.

Christian Paulino 5'10", 168 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/4/1991. .277/.379/.438, 10 SB, 1 CS. Very intriguing player. Came on strong late in the season posting a .345/.472/.517 line over his last 10 games. Listed as a 3B but I think he played some 2B which may be a better position for him. Seems to have a nice potential combination of on-base skill, power and speed. Still young enough to develop. Add him to your list of sleepers.

Stephen Yarrow 6'3", 215 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 11/30/1988. .286/.412/.371. Local kid from South Lake Tahoe who played college ball at USF. Signed as an undrafted FA. Probably projects more as a 1B which hurts his future stock. Probably an organizational player.

DSL

Royel Astacio 6'2", 197 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 9/27/1993. .218/.371/.306, 2 HR, 5 SB in 170 AB. Hit .306 over his last 10 games. Love the size and birthdate here. 2 HR's may not seem like much, but it's an accomplishement in the DSL.

Here's how I would rank them as prospects:

1. Chris Dominguez
2. Conor Gillaspie
3. Adam Duvall
4. Alex Burg
5. Garrett Buechele
6. Christian Paulino
7. Royel Astacio
8. Jose Cuevas
9. Stephen Yarrow

Paulino and Astacio are the two to watch for breakouts in the next year or two. I might have ranked both higher if it was based purely on ceiling. Just don't know enough about them yet.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Extend Lopez, Pick Up Affeldt's Option

2011-10-30T21:32:00.000-07:00

The Giants fired up the ol' hot stove with a pair of moves that will undoubtedly leave self-styled sabermetricians throughout the blogosphere tearing their hair out by the roots with much weeping and gnashing of teeth. The first announcement was the signing of LH reliever Javier Lopez to a 2 year, $8.5 M extension. At that point most observers, including Affedt himself assumed that the Giants would not pick up his $5 M option and buy him out for $500 K. Instead, a second announcement came down within minutes that Affeldt's option had been picked up! This actually should not have been surprising. Let me explain.

For the second year in a row, the team with the deepest bullpen won the World Series. While relievers may not put up impressive WAR numbers, I believe a strong case can be made that their value is not adequately measured by WAR. Let's take Closer position as one example. If you go simply by WAR and other numbers, almost anybody can close. I real life though, we know that is not true. One doesn't have to look any farther than the years between the Robb Nen era and the Brian Wilson era to know the value of a top tier closer to a team. I agree that Saves are not a good measure of a Closer's effectiveness, but think of Blown Saves. The difference between 4 BS and 6 BS is 2 full games that are almost solely the responsibilty of the Closer, 2 WAR points if you will. Yet, those 2 extra Blown Saves don't show up as a difference of anything close to 2 WAR in Fangraphs.

This year is a thin year for free agents all around, as every year is seeming to become, but no position is thinner than LH reliever. Here's a list of FA LH relievers not including Lopez:

Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Damaso Marte
Trevor Miller
Darren Oliver
Arthur Rhodes- $4 M option with $200 K buyout.
JC Romero
George Sherrill
Brian Tallet

See what I mean? If either Lopez or Affeldt, arguably better pitchers than any of the names on that list, were allowed to hit the open market, there is almost no chance the Giants could retain them for what they paid today. At worst, the Giants paid market value, probably a bit less, possibly a lot less.

There are significantly more LH batters in baseball than LH pitchers. This is due to a long term trend for more and more players who are naturally RH dominant to learn to hit LH in their formative years to take advantage of the relative overabundance of RH pitchers. It is easier to learn to bat opposite your dominant side than the throw from the opposite side. Thus, the ratio of RH to LH pitchers approximates the percentage of handedness in the general population, whereas there are significantly more LH batters than would occur naturally in the general population. Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick are the only batters who I can think of who cross over the other way. The vast majority of switch hitters throw RH. 50 of the top 100 OPS's in MLB in 2011 were compiled by either LH batters or switch-hitters. Most switch hitters are better hitting LH because they face so many more RH pitchers. On the other side of the coin, just 24 of the top 93 ERA's belonged to LH pitchers. Baseball is a game of repetition and recognition. The least common matchup is a LH batter facing a LH pitcher. Guess who usually wins that battle!

Now, take a look at the R vs L splits for Affeldt and Lopez and you start to understand why having them in the bullpen to face those LH batters late in game is so important. It's not like Affeldt and Lopez are pure LOOGY's either. Lopez struggled against RH batters a bit more in 2011 but Affeldt had a respectable 3.22 ERA against them. Both pitchers have historically held their own against RH batters even though their greatest value is admittedly in getting LH batters out in key situations late in the game. The value you get from those key outs in high stress situations is almost certainly undervalued by WAR.

If the Giants had failed to retain Affeldt and Lopez they would have lost possibly their greatest advantage over opposing teams, the ability to shut down LH batters late in games. It's not like they could replace them with pitchers who were less well known or slightly less accomplished. There simply was no alternative available on the market!

One thing that a lot of Giants fans still don't understand about Brian Sabean is that if he makes a definitive statement about something, you can generally take it to the bank. He may talk in cliche'd phrases like "kick the tires", "due diligence" and "at the end of the day" when he wants to be evasive, but when he said he would take care of the pitching first, you had to know that's exactly what he would do and probably what he has to do if the Giants are to contend for another championship.

One other way of looking at this is in trade value. Even if the Giants ultimately can't afford $9.25 M for two LH relievers, they can get something in return in trade whereas they would get nothing and have no replacement if they just let them go. Both pitchers are now under contract at or below market value. Given the scarcity of good LH relievers on the market, that they are now very valuable potential trade chips.

One more point: I knew as soon as I saw the Lopez announcement that the Giants would be picking up Affeldt's option. Why? Because the Lopez signing essentially set the market for Affeldt. I'm not sure why a lot of Giants fans are grumbling more about Affeldt's deal than Lopez'. Look at the numbers. Affeldt is simply a better pitcher and more versatile. As soon as it was announced that Lopez would be getting $4.25 M, you knew Affeldt was immediately worth more than the $5 M in his option. At worst, the Giants could pick up the option and trade him. At best, they have two of the better LH relievers in the game, a position that is grossly underrated in value by most sabermetric analysts, at or below a market value that may or may not be overvalued.

Down on the Farm: Second Base Depth Chart

2011-10-26T21:03:00.000-07:00

Before we get started there is an interesting audio interview, Michael Urban with Brian Sabean on CSN Bay Area. Listen and draw your own conclusions. My take? Don't be shocked at a blockbuster trade involving a pitcher.

With Freddy Sanchez and whoever is going to back him up, the Giants are relatively set at the MLB level. Freddy likely won't be around in 2013, so the Giants need to be thinking about who might take his place as the Giants 2B of the future, or whether they will continue to sign mid-market stopgaps to play the position. Let's take a look:

AAA

Brock Bond 5'11", 185 lbs, B-S, T-R, BD: 9/11/1985. .246/.338/.333. Bond only played in 19 games before suffering a concussion and missed the rest of the season. Brock has been a favorite of Giants prospect watchers for some time due to his high BA's and ability to draw walks and get on base. The rap on him is he's a bad fielder with limited range and a weak arm.

Conor Gillaspie 6'1", 195 lbs, B-L, T-R, BD: 7/18/1987. .297/.389/.453, 11 HR. I don't think Gillaspie played one inning at 2B, but he took some grounders there while up with the MLB club. He's out of options, so the Giants have to find a MLB role for him or else expose him to waivers thanks to the de-facto MLB contract they agreed to after he was drafted in 2008. His offensive game is more suited to 2B, but having seen him play 3B, it's hard for me to imagine him being even passable at 2B. He may be a tweener in the he may not quite well enough to be a third baseman but might not be able to field the position at 2B.

AA

Charlie Culberson 6'1", 200 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/10/1989. .259/.293/.382, 10 HR, 14 SB. This was the follow up to Culby's breakout season last year in San Jose. There were some bright spots, but also a lot of slumps. He did finish with a flourish hitting .348 over his last 10 games. Coming into his age 24 season, he could repeat AA without derailing his career, but I think he probably did well enough to earn a promotion to Fresno where he could have a second breakout.

Nick Noonan 6'0", 175 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 5/4/1989. .212/.303/.288. Played SS for Richmond this year after playing 2B for 3 years prior. The offense has to come around to project him playing any position.

HIGH A

Ryan Cavan 5'10", 180 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 6/28/1987. .270/.352/.435, 12 HR, 10 SB. .341/.438/.537 over his last 10 games. Cavan did not hit as well as Charlie Culberson did last year for SJ and he's almost a full 2 years older than Culby is now. Draws walks and has a bit of power. Should move up to AA for a major test.

LOW A

Carlos Willoughby 5' 10", 170 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: 11/12/1988. .240/.341/.308, 33 SB. Willoughby played 3 years in the DSL starting in 2007. This was his first full pro season. He continued to show a knack for getting on base allowing him to use his speed. He slumped badly in the second half though. Will we see him in SJ?

SHORT SEASON

Kaohi Downing 5'11", 180 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 5/7/1986. .312/.384/.403. Downing converted from pitching this year and put up surprisingly good offensive numbers for S-K. I think he could jump over Willougby and get the bulk of PT for SJ next year.

Julio Izturis 5'11", 165 lbs. B-S, T-R. BD: .209/.289/.239. Izturi finally walked off the island, but has never really done anything else. He has just developed way too slowly. I might hold out hope for him if he was a SS, but he got moved over to 2B almost immediately.

ROOKIE AZL

Cristian Paulino 5'10", 168 lbs. B-R, T-R, BD: 9/4/1991. .277/.379/.438, 10 SB in 112 AB. Paulino is listed as a 3B but I think he played some at 2B. Seems like a dynamic player with good OBP skills, a whiff of power and some speed.

Garrett Buechele 6'0", 200 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 10/23/1989. .235/.288/.350, 5 HR in 200 AB. I'm thinking Buechele is not going to hit enough to play 3B and could be moved to 2B. We'll see. Very unclear where he fits in the future.

DSL

Alberto Robles 5'11", 155 lbs. B-R, T-R, BD: 9/14/1990. .344/.459/.399, 14 SB. Nice numbers but very old for the DSL.

Randy Ortiz 5'11", 170 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 6/15/1993. .292/.396/.363, 19 SB. I'm thinking we see this kid in Arizona next summer. Gets on base and steals bases.

Here's my attempt at ranking the Giants 2B prospects:

1. Charlie Culberson
2. Ryan Cavan
3. Cristian Paulino
4. Randy Ortiz
5. Conor Gillaspie
6. Brock Bond
7. Carlos Willoughby
8. Alberto Robles
9. Nick Noonan
10. Julio Izturis
11. Garrett Buechele

Not an inspiring bunch!

Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Second Basemen

2011-10-23T07:42:00.000-07:00

There hasn't been too much talk about the Giants second base situation, but they have some uncertainty to deal with there too. The incumbent is Freddy Sanchez who played a big part in the WS championship season. He underwent surgery to repair damage from a dislocated right shoulder. The hope is he will be ready to start the season as the starting second baseman. In reality, shoulder surgeries can take much longer to come back from and can be career ending. Remember Marcus Sanders and Eddie Martinez-Esteve? The Giants need a backup plan. That's where the drama comes in for the Hot Stove season.

Jeff Keppinger has one year of arbitration left and make $2.3 M last year. He started off hot after the Giants acquired him in a trade mid-season, but faded down the stretch. He is a decent defender at 2B with limited range. He's a similar hitter to Freddy Sanchez in that he'll hit for average with doubles power, won't take many walks and will hit into his share of DPs. The other in-house option is Mike Fontenot who is more versatile than Kepp, but not as good a hitter. Fonty is also arbitration eligible and made $1.05 M last year. Lastly, there is Emmanuel Burriss who has been hanging around the fringes of the team seemingly forever. Burriss is an excellent fielder at 2B, can play SS in a pinch and is a difference maker on the basepaths. His big problem is he can't steal first base! So far, he has shown no sign of ever becoming a MLB caliber hitter.

With that background, let's scout the FA and trade market and see what's heating up on the Hot Stove:

Clint Barmes and Jamey Carroll have already been discussed in the SS segment. The Giants like versatility and these guys fit the profile. They both are more versatile than Kepp and either might be an upgrade on Fonty, but would likely cost more $$ than Fonty.

Robinson Cano and Brandon Phillips both have club options that will almost certainly be picked up so mark them off the list.

Rest of the pack: Pretty much the usual suspects here. Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Craig Counsell, Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Bill Hall, Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, Jose Lopez, Aaron Miles, Drew Sutton. If anyone on that list excites you, please discuss.

I think the Giants should re-sign Fonty and offer arbitration if necessary. I don't think they need Kepp, but should try to get something for him. They can either trade him before the arbitration deadline or go ahead and get him signed, offer arbitration if necessary, and then trade him after he is under contract. They can always make another mid-season trade if they have to. There is no need to delve into the FA market at 2B unless it's to sign a Barmes or Carroll to play SS and they'll double as backup options at 2B.

Down on the Farm: BA's Giants Draft Report Card

2011-10-21T16:33:00.000-07:00

BA has posted their annual draft report cards. Here's some highlights from the Giants entry(these categories only compare Giants draftees to each other, not the entire draft):

Best Pure Hitter: Joe Panik. Not too much of a surprise here.

Best Power Hitter: Andrew Susac. Susac gets the nod over Ricky Oropesa because he has more "usable power." Ricky has more raw power but dissipates it with too many swings and misses. Neither has played an inning of professional baseball yet, so we'll see how it turns out. If Susac proves to be an even better power hitter than Ricky and can stay at catcher to boot, then the Giants have themselves a real nice prospect.

Fastest Runner: Kentrell Hill and Travious Relaford.

Best Defensive Player: Joe Panik. Reliable SS with good hands. Kelby Tomlinson and Christian Otero have better pure tools but they rated Panik as a better all around defender at SS. I have to say I'm a bit skeptical of this. Hope it's true.

Best Fastball: Kyle Crick, Chris Marlowe, Ray Black, Bryce Bandilla, Josh Osich. 5 drafted pitchers who can reach 97 MPH! Crick and Marlowe were the only ones of this group to get into professional games. Crick had mixed results with 8 K's and 8 BB's in 7 IP. Marlowe had 5 K's and 1 BB in 3 IP.

Best Secondary Pitch: Marlowe with an 84 MPH hard breaking ball.

Best Professional Debut: Joe Panik. Not too much mystery here. Shawn Payne and Clayton Blackburn also got mentions.

Best Athlete: Hill and Relaford again.

Best Late Round Pick: Blackburn

One Who Got Away: Tyler Leslie. Andrew Triggs stayed at USC to enroll in a Master's Degree program. I think the Giants have until the next draft to sign Triggs though as he was a senior draftee.

The Giants placed a couple of mentions in the national summary.

Best Pro Debut: Joe Panik led all draftees in the entire draft! How's that?

Best Pro Debut High School Draftee: Clayton Blackburn ranked #2! Gotta love that!

Best Late Round Pick At or Below Slot: Clayton Blackburn ranked #1! Again, gotta love it!

Down on the Farm: Corner Outfield Depth Chart

2011-10-17T06:04:00.000-07:00

Corner OF is actually a lot thinner in the Giants organization than CF. The Giants scouting and drafting emphasis is, and always has been, up the middle. They figure that if they are strong in the middle of the field, the corners will take care of themselves. To an extent, that's true. It's theoretically easier to find a good first baseman or LF on the open market than, say, a catcher or CF. It's just that the Giants haven't always done that. It should come as no surprise that 2 of the top players on the corner OF organizational depth chart are also on the CF depth chart. The Giants place a lot of emphasis on OF defense and you would expect a corner OF who is capable of playing CF to be a better defender in a corner than one who can't. It doesn't always work that way and that approach may be sacrificing some offense, but on average it's probably a sound approach.

MLB

Nate Schierholtz- 6'1", 205 lbs, B-L, T-R. BD: 2/15/1984. .278/.326/.430, 9 HR, 7 SB in 335 AB. Nate watchers saw a gradual metamorphosis in 2011 from a kid who was up there just protecting the plate, to a MLB player who was looking for pitches to drive. By the time his season was cut short in mid August by a foul ball off his foot, Nate had become one of the more dangerous hitters in an admittedly weak Giants lineup. His HR into the upper deck in Colorado might be the longest I've ever seen a Giant hit one. It was a truly mammoth shot! Nate is the only established major league corner OF currently in the Giants organization. Brian Sabean proclaimed that RF is his next season. We all know how much weight THAT carries. He is a magical defender in RF in AT&T park, one of the trickier positions to play in baseball. He should be the starting RF next season. At age 28, he is early in the prime years of his career with 1000 MLB AB's under his belt and could be primed for a breakout. Next hurdle? Stay healthy all season!

Brandon Belt- 6'5", 220 lbs, B-L, T-L, BD: 4/20/1988. .225/.306/.412, 9 HR's in 187 AB's. Brandon Belt was drafted and developed as a first baseman, but as he showed last year, he is athletic enough to play a passable LF even with virtually no experience there. He rocketed through the Giants system in 2010 while playing at 3 levels in a stupendous season. He also rocketed into the national top prospect rankings. The Giants succumbed to the temptation to rush him to the majors, even moving Aubrey Huff to the OF to make room for him. That move proved to be a bit too much, too fast for the wide-eyed kid from Nacogdoches, Texas and the awkwardness of the situation it created proved to be a metaphor for the Giants entire 2011 season. The fractured hand he suffered just as he was starting his second stint in the majors was another microcosm of the Giants season. Possibly lost in all this is Belt's second half stat line: .231/.296/.469 with 8 HR's in 130 AB's. If you project his HR's over a full season of AB's, you are already in the high 20's and his second half line is a whole lot better. The Giants are currently contemplating whether to send Belt down for more seasoning to start 2012. If he plays in the majors, it will probably be as a LF. IMO, the Giants could do a lot worse, and the price is certainly right.

AA

Francisco Peguero 5'11", 195 lbs, B-R, T-R, BD: 6/1/1988. .309/.312/.446. We discussed Peguero in the CF rundown. He's actually played more RF than CF the last 2 seasons. Performed very well in a league that is notoriously tough on hitters. Allergic to walks. May be a bit of a tweener: Not quite enough D for CF and not quite enough bat for a corner. Logical progression would be for him to start the 2012 season in Fresno.

Roger Kieschnick 6'3", 215 lbs, B-L, T-R, BD: 1/21/1987. .255/.307/.429 16 HR, 13 SB. Roger is starting to get a bit long in the tooth for a prospect. Lost a year of development to a bad back in 2010. Had a pretty good 2011 considering the environment, but slumped at the end of the season. I think he should start 2012 in Fresno where I could see him breaking out. Arm is strong enough for RF.

Wendell Fairley 6'2", 195 lbs, B-L, T-R. BD: 3/17/1988. High A .245/.329/.317. AA .265/.321/.337. Fairley came advertised as a raw, toolsy kid when drafted in 2007. He's never shown any power or speed and was moved to LF early in his pro career. At this point he's an aging prospect with "old player skills." Pretty hard to envision a MLB future for him right now.

High A

Jarrett Parker 6'4", 210 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 1/1/1989. .253/.360/.387 with 13 HR, 20 SB. Another guy discussed in the CF mix. Has the size and arm to play RF if his power develops. Plate discipline was the strongest part of his offensive game last year but showed just enough power and speed to give hope for a higher ceiling. I saw him gun down a runner from RF with a throw that would rival anything I've seen Nate unleash.

Nick Liles 6'0", 165 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 7/23/1987. .281/.317/.372. Hits for average and has a bit of speed. Played some LF for SJ in a 4'th OF role. Seems to be more of an organizational player at this point.

James Simmons 6'3", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/3/1985. High A .270/.329/.522, 10 HR in 159 AB's. AAA .228/.279/.386 3 HR in 57 AB. I still think James is one of the best athletes in the Giants organization. Based on my own observations, he can't hit a breaking ball to save his life although he seemed to handle them a bit better this year. Showed impressive power in limited playing time in 2011. I'd like to see what he does in a full season with Fresno in 2012. Probably organizational filler at this point, but man, you look at his athleticism and it's hard not to see possibilities.

Low A

Rafael Rodriguez 6'5", 198. B-R, T-R, BD: 7/13/1992 .236/.284/.297. Given a choice between a prospect dominating a level or being dominated, it's pretty safe to go with dominating being the preferable of the two. For a prospect who gets dominated, you have to look for mitigating circumstances. With Raf, it's that he did not turn 19 until half way through the summer and the Sally League can be pretty tough even on seasoned hitters, especially Augusta which has a huge field of play. Not sure where the Giants will send him next season, but he could repeat Augusta for a full season and still be not old for the level. It's kind of tough to project those numbers to anything good, but it's also still way to early to give up on him.

Ryan Lollis 6'2", 185 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 12/16/1986. .314/.393/.422, 10 SB. Old for the league with nothing really inspiring about the numbers. Probably on organizational player.

Devin Harris 6'3", 225 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/23/1988. .231/.310/.414, 15 HR. I hope Harris gets a chance to play in San Jose next year. I still think he's a legitimate sleeper. with some power and plate discipline. I liked him in college before the Giants drafted him.

SHORT SEASON

Chuckie Jones 6'3", 235 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 7/28/1992. .218/.322/.315. Chuckie had a rough season plagued by nagging oblique strains and playing against mostly older players. I still think he has a high ceiling. Hopefully he fully recuperates this offseason and is able to get a full season worth of AB's next year. Still quite young as he'll start next year at age 19.

Brett Krill 6'4", 195 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 1/24/1989. .304/.350/.488, 6 HR in 207 AB. I first found this guy on Baseball Beginnings, now Baseball Prospect Report, when he was playing for UCLA. His college stats weren't impressive with a BA of .294, but he did show some power. It was the video clips that got my attention. He's a big brawny kid who does not look like a baseball player until he puts it in motion, then you start to see that he's a lot more athletic than he looks. I was happy to see his name go up on the Giants 2010 draft list in round 25. He had a very nice first professional season for Salem-Keizer. I noticed that he rang up several OF assists from his RF post. Brett Krill is a sleeper who I will be watching for in 2012.

Leonardo Ochoa 6'0", 180 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 10/20/1989. .265/.330/.451, 5 HR in 102 AB. Ochoa was signed as an undrafted FA out of Canada in 2008. He had a nice start to his pro career in 2009 in Arizona: .288/.388/.405. He then missed the entire 2010 season before re-surfacing in Salem-Keizer in 2011. Another sleeper. Next year should be pivotal in his pro career.

ROOKIE AZL

Leonardo Fuentes 6'4", 215 lbs, B-R, T-R. BD: 11/29/1992. .257/.306/.425, 5 HR in 179 AB. One of several international prospects the Giants have signed in the mid 6 figure range in the last couple of years. This was his debut in the States at age 18. Gotta love the size on this kid. He is already starting to show his power potential. Not sure where we'll see him next year, Augusta? Salem-Keizer? Repeating Arizona? He's got plenty of time to develop that talent. He's a kid we can dream on for awhile. I just have a feeling this kid has an enormous ceiling.

Karl August "Gus" Benusa 6'1", 190 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 1/30/1991. .297/.338/.419. Benusa was drafted out of HS in round 8 in 2009. He played in the AZL that summer but missed the entire 2010 season. Hit .313/.389/.500 over his last 10 games this year. It will be interesting to see where he turns up in 2012. I'm glad the Giants are taking more flyers on these HS prospects who are flying under the radar. All it takes is for 1 or 2 of them to reach their potential.

Elliott "Major" Blair 6'1", 181 lbs. B-R, T-R, BD: 2/3/1988. .333/.421/.500, 4 triples, 6 SB in 114 AB. Drafted out of Oklahoma. Had good BA's in college, but very little playing time. Giants scouts must have seen something. Arizona too low a level to get much of a read on a draftee from a major D1 college program, but so far so good.

Christian Diaz 6'1", 170 lbs, B-L, T-L. BD: 7/15/1993. .231/.375/.308. One of the contingent of Puerto Rican high schoolers drafted by the Giants this year. Only got 13 AB's in 10 games. Very young. Again, I'm all in favor of the Giants taking flyers on these kids in the later draft rounds.

Eldred Barnett 6'1", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 5/2/1989. .248/.310/.385. Drafted out of Grambling State. Started off hot but slumped at the end of the season. Kind of a longshot at this point.

DSL

Carlos Cartegena 6'2", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 12/22/1993. .147/.291/.231. There was no hitting to speak of for the Giants DSL team in 2011. Cartegena is another of their mid 6 figure signings. Like the size. Hit a couple of HR's which is actually an accomplishment in the DSL. Not sure if he'll repeat this level or if we'll see him in Arizona.

2011 DRAFTEES

Ricky Oropesa They've been trying to make Ricky a 3'rd baseman, but he always seems to end up back at 1B. He has some speed though, and a arm good enough to be a pitching prospect, so I don't think it is out of the question that he could play a corner OF position with some experience out there. Signed too late to get into games this year.

OK, this is a tough one, but here's a stab at ranking the Giants corner OF prospects(Brandon Belt is no longer officially a prospect):

1. Francisco Peguero
2. Jarrett Parker
3. Leonardo Fuentes
4. Roger Kieschnick
5. Chuckie Jones
6. Rafael Rodriguez
7. Brett Krill
8. Carlos Cartegena
9. Leonardo Ochoa
10.Gus Benusa
11. Christian Diaz
12. Wendell Fairley
13. James Simmons
14. Devin Harris
15. Nick Liles
16. Ryan Lollis
17. Major Blair
18. Eldred Barnett.
Bonus: Ricky Oropesa.

Did I miss anyone?