tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post2102580015198589095..comments2024-03-18T23:03:05.399-07:00Comments on When the Giants Come to Town...: Down on the Farm: 8/18/2013DrBGiantsfanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05574563470247927739noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-87259428871317682282013-08-20T11:20:36.734-07:002013-08-20T11:20:36.734-07:00I'm with you, Doc. Baseball is a very differen...I'm with you, Doc. Baseball is a very different game in so many ways. Just one them is how differently players can blossom, both in the tool category and the age at which it occurs. That same pitcher could actually have just figured out what works for him within the last year, and exactly who he is out there on the hill. <br /><br />Further, it's completely within the realm of possibility that the Giants promote him a couple levels within the year, and he continues to excel, and so on. Suddenly, he's not so far off the curve any more, and becomes a real prospect. Obviously not the mean here, but you get my drift. Immediately assigning a negative flag due to the age/level thing is just a 'glass half empty' approach, a knee-jerk dismissal of performance based solely on a kid's age. I say, let's just sit back and see how this kid does with a much larger sampling and a promotion or two, then hazard some meaningful projections.<br /><br />Another aspect of this is that anyone analyzing a player only has his numbers to work from. Yet, none of these kids is a machine, but is a person with a back story, one that can include incredibly good or bad luck. And all of it has shaped their personal path to professional baseball, and the success they ultimately experience.<br /><br /> I speak from direct experience on this, as I've read theories regarding someone I know very well, and why he's done this or that, or will end up doing this or that, and I'm left chuckling at the so-called 'informed analyzing'. Mostly because it's so often off the mark that it reaffirms my own belief that the business of scouting baseball talent leaves plenty to be desired. <br /><br />For the record, Doc, I enjoyed your analysis of the age/level argument, and am fully on board with your thoughts on the subject. One thing I notice about your approach to prospect watching is that you temper it with a dose of what I'll call the 'human factor' (whether or not you even realized it). :)<br /><br />SJGfanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-52902751966033045682013-08-20T09:15:40.758-07:002013-08-20T09:15:40.758-07:00I've said this a few times - the most importan...I've said this a few times - the most important thing for a minor league player isn't his stat line, its the daily phone call from the manager on up the chain of command. Stats paint the picture pretty well, but there are a lot of things only the Giants know, including when to disregard cold streak bad stats. Inside info baby.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-26323082817398759702013-08-20T08:45:31.429-07:002013-08-20T08:45:31.429-07:00I would assume everybody knows as much as you do u...I would assume everybody knows as much as you do until questions are asked. People don't find this blog by accident, its a very targeted audience. And further, its for refuges from the various lowbrow forums that I won't list. Also its relatively free of saber snark. Actually what the aim is (in my mind at least) combining scouting and advanced statistical analysis while discussing our favorite team... And that's kind of what the Gigantes do btw. What I've found is scouting is hugely more important than stat analysis, which is mainly a reporting function. But stats do drive baseball, and they're important, so they definitely shouldn't be disregarded.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-20905648769058452502013-08-20T02:42:17.358-07:002013-08-20T02:42:17.358-07:00Baseball is full of players who got $7500 bonuses ...Baseball is full of players who got $7500 bonuses who were successful. As for expectations, once again you assume that people who read this site and comment on prospects in the AZL are ignorant. Nobody is expecting anything from this kid. He's somebody who we've never heard of before who is doing some interesting things. That's all!! He does happen to be one of a very small number of pitchers who the Giants are giving starting slots and multiple innings per appearance to which I think says something about how THEY view him, don't you think? <br /><br />I am simply reacting, once again, to your indiscriminate invocation of age vs level to say we should discount an individual players performance. That is a misuse of the age vs level principle as I explained over the course of 5 or 6 posts over the All-Star break. To say that a 20 year-old's performance should be discounted when it wouldn't be if he was 19 is just wrong! If you want to stubbornly continue to misuse it, then maybe you should do it on your blog instead of here.<br /><br />Sorry to get frustrated there, but I really am getting tired of having to correct this point seemingly every time an interesting prospect is discussed. DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-858058662433638382013-08-20T01:52:53.883-07:002013-08-20T01:52:53.883-07:00I did not say he had no chance. All I said is tha...I did not say he had no chance. All I said is that one should temper their expectations. I think his $7,500 bonus says volumes about the talent he was showing prior to signing with the Giants. And there is a vast difference between the opportunities for development in college versus whatever options he has playing in his native land. The development you speak of happens for players who get significant opportunities to practice against better competition and develop, who is he playing against when prospects with any good talent is signed at age 16-17 and playing in pro leagues in the DSL? I did not say he had no chance, I said we should temper our hopes, enjoy his good outings, but he will need to prove himself at the next level up. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-8464332822393806692013-08-20T01:36:37.157-07:002013-08-20T01:36:37.157-07:00The point made by sabers is that players like you ...The point made by sabers is that players like you CSS would be weeded out before you reach the majors. They theorize that the level of hitting talent and pitching talent reaches that point where the mean is roughly .300 in the majors. Yes, pitchers do skew the numbers, and I have not seen an explanation of that dichotomy between the leagues, but my best guess without looking up the numbers is that pitchers do not get enough ABs to move the needle much when you got nine hitters in the AL and eight hitters from the NL, plus PH takes away at least one AB, plus ninth hitter gets less AB generally too, anyway. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-77335881388733231802013-08-19T21:52:56.639-07:002013-08-19T21:52:56.639-07:00ogc,
That last point you make is a giant leap of ...ogc,<br /><br />That last point you make is a giant leap of faith assumption that I am not at all willing to make. Baseball is full of players who had breakouts in their junior year of college or their age 20 season after being drafted out of HS. Heck, I grew about 3 inches during my freshman year in college! I was just a late grower. The notion that it's impossible to find a player with talent at age 20 in Venezuela is something you just pulled out of your backside there with no basis in fact at all.<br /><br />I am also not willing to pull the age vs level card on a situation like this. If it's a college draftee from a D1 program who is 22 years old, yes, you have to think he's playing at a lower level than he did in college. Not in this situation. Again, you cannot just knee-jerk the age vs level thing. You have to look at context!DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-7022405047212404852013-08-19T21:45:20.679-07:002013-08-19T21:45:20.679-07:00Well, I haven't looked up pitcher BABIP's ...Well, I haven't looked up pitcher BABIP's compared to the league, but pitchers do tend to strike out a lot.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-15369727424025362352013-08-19T17:52:46.672-07:002013-08-19T17:52:46.672-07:00I am not a huge believer that BABIP should be leve...I am not a huge believer that BABIP should be level across the board. If I were somehow get into the majors and have a full 500 ABs, there is NO WAY IN HECK that I would have a BABIP anywhere near league average. All 10 times I would be able to make contact would be either BLASTED fly outs to 2B or a SHOT grounder to the pitcher.<br /><br />If BABIPs are supposed to be essentially equal across the board, why is that pitchers have such low batting averages?<br /><br />I know I am looking at the extremes, but when you are looking at clumped numbers, extrapolating to the radical is the best way to test a theory, IMHO.calsnowskierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02746266404646821133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-30174900456874093462013-08-19T17:37:22.863-07:002013-08-19T17:37:22.863-07:00I would also note that the average age of pitchers...I would also note that the average age of pitchers in Nomah's 21 YO season was 23.7 (-2.7 years) vs. Panik's 22 YO season of 24.6 (-2.6 years), so there is a difference in age/experience of roughly the same.<br /><br />To concur, not that Panik is the same as Nomar (for one thing, 117 ISOp with league 122 ISOp vs. 91 ISOp with league 133 ISOp), but when a prospect is young versus the league, you need to recognize that being much younger is a factor that needs to be acknowledged in analyzing him, that you don't write off a prospect just because he did not do well, as there are other factors, like the league context and how extreme it is, as DrB astutely noted.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-32849917141453845782013-08-19T17:25:45.804-07:002013-08-19T17:25:45.804-07:00I would note here that BLSL got the concept wrong,...I would note here that BLSL got the concept wrong, to clarify for those who don't know Sabermetrics. <br /><br />To DrB's point, there is a great variance among hitters' BABIP. Hitters in the aggregate is about the same BABIP, hence all the talk about pitcher's BABIP approaching the mean of .300 as the regression point. But each hitter has their own BABIP which, from the best practices I've seen, regress to their average BABIP over the past three seasons. That's because any particular player's BABIP will depend on his tendencies for grounders and flyballs, and perhaps line drives, though that is still an area of dispute.<br /><br />According to the latest by the leading analyst in this area, Russell Carleton (aka Pizza Cutter; http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17659 ), BABIP for a hitter stabilizes at 820 BIP, and the average starting position player has around 300-500 BIP (obviously depends on his K and HR-rates; Pagan had 500 BIP in 2012, Pence had 448 BIP, Stanton had 316 in 2011, Dunn 321 in 2010), so that's roughly two to three seasons worth of BIP, depending on the player.<br /><br />There is definitely some things about BABIP that conventional sabermetrics has not acknowledged yet. Most well-used metrics relies on the notion that BABIP is a mean that you must regress to. But Tom Tippett (Diamond Mind creator; now Boston Red Sox defense saber in-house last I heard) in his examination of the DIPS concept about 10 years ago found that there are categories of pitchers where BABIP regression is not true, that they are capable of producing lowered BABIP, like crafty lefties and knuckle-ball artists. <br /><br />A well-known saber named Mike Fast, who was hired by Houston, recently gave an interview where he noted how much getting to work inside has helped him (Carleton also noted this, issuing a mea culpa - sort of - to Joe Morgan, though he's back on "our" side again), and what he noticed was that BABIP for prospects do not bounce around a mean of .300 - that is the minimum talent of most pitchers in the majors, but not true for pitchers in the minors - some do not have that skill/talent to keep BABIP to the league mean.<br /><br />To me, sabers can be as blinders on as they claim the scouting oriented GMs, and if they can't measure it, it don't exist. Clearly pitching to contact exists, we see two of the best around the majors, here in Cain and Zito, both have career BABIPs significantly below the .300 mean. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-65269225173373556812013-08-19T16:51:28.372-07:002013-08-19T16:51:28.372-07:00Good points DrB. Still, given that anybody with a...Good points DrB. Still, given that anybody with any discernable talent would get signed by the time he's 16-17, that he lasted until he was 20 YO to sign has to be a red flag.<br /><br />But to your point below, you never write off anyone, but I don't think it hurts to temper one's expectations based on these factoids. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-8663299150119080112013-08-19T16:46:24.030-07:002013-08-19T16:46:24.030-07:00I will say this, there must be things about BABIP ...I will say this, there must be things about BABIP that we don't know because MLB pitchers obsessively talk about "pitching to contact" and trying to induce "weak contact." Now, Sabermetric enthusiasts will simply dismiss such talk as the equivalent of insisting that the Earth is flat, but I prefer to think that these pitchers and coaches are certainly aware of the numbers. If they are all still insisting that the path to long term success is "pitching to contact", then there is probably something that they know that we don't.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-72617624143966173572013-08-19T16:02:01.188-07:002013-08-19T16:02:01.188-07:00Yeah, it's better not to be too dogmatic.
Wha...Yeah, it's better not to be too dogmatic.<br /><br />Whatever conclusion one wants to make about BABIP, it should be kept in mind that it is empirical much without a theory to explain it nor the anomaly that the non-contact rate is not as 'stable.' <br /><br />That's what is known as skating on thin ice.BuyLowSellLowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-41531188513458435262013-08-19T15:50:25.694-07:002013-08-19T15:50:25.694-07:00If you dig a little deeper into BABIP, there are s...If you dig a little deeper into BABIP, there are some batters who seem to have a higher Line Drive % and those guys seem to be able to maintain better BABIP's. <br /><br />Groundballs tend to find their way between infielders more often than flyballs tend to drop in for hits, so GB pitchers will tend to have higher BABIP's than flyball pitchers. On the other hand, Flyball pitchers tend to give up more HR's although not as much more as you would think because most HR's come of "mistake" pitches such as hanging breaking balls or sinkers that fail to sink.<br /><br />But for general conversation, it's not a terrible starting point to say that BABIP's are close to constant across baseball. Where sabermetric novices get into trouble is when they get too dogmatic in applying it to individual performances and for failing to look behind the numbers and look for reasons why they are being generated,DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-36818564885188875082013-08-19T15:40:39.537-07:002013-08-19T15:40:39.537-07:00That should read, "I really doubt..."That should read, "I really doubt..."BuyLowSellLOwernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-56781755169512308152013-08-19T15:39:30.118-07:002013-08-19T15:39:30.118-07:00I agree the theory must match reality.
And I real...I agree the theory must match reality.<br /><br />And I really count the non-contact rate should be more or less the same for all hitters.<br /><br />That makes me, in a round about way, suspect the theory, if there is one, behind what BABIP should be more or less the same.<br /><br />If that is the case, that brings us back to our pre-science days where we just did things without being to explain them, except maybe superstition.BuyLowSellLowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-60621871143397848462013-08-19T14:58:09.597-07:002013-08-19T14:58:09.597-07:00Sounds good, but it's not the correct way to l...Sounds good, but it's not the correct way to look at it because the numbers do not match the theory, because in reality there are significantly larger variations in K rates, and by extension contact rates, than in BABIP.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-57057393247693654852013-08-19T14:17:56.067-07:002013-08-19T14:17:56.067-07:00I try to see it from a different perspective.
I s...I try to see it from a different perspective.<br /><br />I see a ball and the center of gravity of that ball.<br /><br />Imagine the bat split down the center longitudinal line.<br /><br />I see BABIP as a function, more of less, of how far you place that middle line of your bat from the center of gravity of that ball.<br /><br />How fast you swing the bat, i.e. how violent you make the collision also contribute to your BABIP.<br /><br />So, if you place the middle line of your bat on the center of gravity of the ball, you are like to get the ball to rebound sharply.<br /><br />The further away you place the middle line of your bat from the center of gravity of the ball, the less sharply the ball will rebound off your bat.<br /><br />Non-contact is a reduce case. A special case of how far from the center of the ball you place your the middle line of your bat.<br /><br />If BABIP is more or less the same, what you are saying is that all swings are more or less at the same velocity, that the distribution of bat contact distance from the center of the gravity of the ball is same for all hitters, that the distribution of where the contact is make in the strike zone is more or less the same (all hitters are more or less likely to chase a 'bad pitch').<br /><br />And since non-contact rate is a special case of BABIP, it should be the same.BuyLowSellLowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-64151560193598519112013-08-19T14:12:13.295-07:002013-08-19T14:12:13.295-07:00Thanks for all the detail Rainball - enjoyed the r...Thanks for all the detail Rainball - enjoyed the review.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-4151743864961118722013-08-19T14:10:57.049-07:002013-08-19T14:10:57.049-07:00Thanks OGC. Good to know a little more about the ...Thanks OGC. Good to know a little more about the guy. He has been performing quite stellar.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-86311465751278894342013-08-19T14:09:33.145-07:002013-08-19T14:09:33.145-07:00And if you look at a guy like Freddy Sanchez, he n...And if you look at a guy like Freddy Sanchez, he never really hit a lot of HRs in the minors, but had enough pop to keep pitchers honest, go win himself a batting title.<br /><br />Nomar's batting glove adjustments always drove me nuts. He's a half decent analyst, pointing out some inside the game stuff that is interesting, and he was an excellent hitter. We'd take a Nomar type with a quickness!Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-63459465954403341632013-08-19T13:19:51.892-07:002013-08-19T13:19:51.892-07:00I agree with this. There is no single path to the...I agree with this. There is no single path to the major leagues and prospects should be written off with great care, but the guys who impress the scouts and coaches tend to move faster and have a higher success rate and that does not always show up in the stat lines.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-10763092232657475002013-08-19T13:17:26.350-07:002013-08-19T13:17:26.350-07:00BLSL- At least according to sabermetric theory(wit...BLSL- At least according to sabermetric theory(with a lot of evidence to support it), while BABIP is approximately the same across baseball, contact rate is more variable and the determining factor in overall BA. Think of what non-contact is. Non-contact leads to K's and K's are wildly different for different hitters and different pitchers. Contact rate is Total AB - K's. BIP= PA - BB - K - HR. BABIP= Singles + Doubles + Triples/BIP. BA= Hits/BIP + K's+ HR's. OBP= Hits + Walks(+HBP)/ PA's(BIP+K's+BB+HR. DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7389427040394111033.post-92233253855172361732013-08-19T13:05:13.673-07:002013-08-19T13:05:13.673-07:00The thing impressive about professions like our ma...The thing impressive about professions like our management is that they can tell whether an AA guy will make it or not without a full season.<br /><br />If I recall correctly, Romo, Panda, Hector - they were all like that and made it without much time in either Richmond or Fresno.<br /><br />Then you have Surkamp, Kickham, Heston, et al - they had great successes and that's good for the minor franchises. They could use Pacific Coast League MVPs for promotions. (That's why I asked about if anyone would this year's Bowker or Linden, without inferring that would be something to get excited about as far as helping the parent team was concerned). Some of these guys can still make it and I believe the team is open to being impressed.BuyLowSellLowernoreply@blogger.com